Welcome back to a preview of some MLB games. It’s been a tough slog lately but I will not be sitting out the last month of baseball, especially with the postseason now just over a month away. There are plenty of games I’m keen on here, unfortunately we can’t invest in them all. Playing run totals will be something I look more at in the future as I’ve had a much better strike rate this season and the Money Lines have been very rough of late. I always have preferred the money line or run line betting, however If statistics point in the other direction that can’t be ignored. That’s for another day, and I shall keep an eye on that. 13 Games today and I could probably bet into 11 of them. Let’s get some winners with the ones I’ve selected.
Tuesday 30th
Plays
Best Bet – u8.5 Rangers/Mariners $1.99 (1u)
Next Best – Royals $1.97 (1u)
Cardinals $1.69 (1u)
Orioles $2.10 (0.5u)
Dodgers -1.5 $2.16 (0.5u)
Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays (9.05am AEST)
Orioles ($2.10) – Miley (8-10, 5.51 ERA)
Blue Jays ($1.77) – Estrada (7-6, 3.47 ERA)
Prediction
Orioles. This looks to be a very interesting series, important as well. Baltimore currently sit 3 games behind the Jays in AL East and are coming off a disappointing series against the Yankees where their pitchers got pounded. Both of these teams can put up big numbers, 1st and 2nd in Home Run totals. Wade Miley has been pretty awful since his move from the Mariners, pitching to the 6th inning only once and allowing way too many base runners, almost 2 per inning. Toronto are definitely one to take advantage of that. On the mound for the Jays is Marco Estrada, who has had a nice season but his last 2 starts have been rather poor. Giving up 11 Runs over 9 innings. I don’t really like the total line here 10.5, even for these 2 teams is high. I really like the value on the Orioles, Miley is probably due a decent start and even if he struggles the O’s have the bats to never be out of it. It’s definatley not a high confidence play put I’m happy to have something small on the O’s at Camden Yards (42-22) when over even money. Orioles team total over 4.5 at $1.82 not a bad option if you like that kind of market.
Suggested Bet
Orioles $2.10
Milwaukee Brewers vs St Louis Cardinals (9.20am AEST)
Brewers ($2.22) – Davies (10-6, 4.06 ERA)
Cardinals ($1.69) – Martinez (12-7, 3.13 ERA)
Prediction
Cardinals. St Louis find themselves amongst a wild card race, and to be honest they know how to handle this type of pressure, for years this franchise has got it done when it matters. They have to beat up on the lesser teams to keep the wins ticking over and the Brewers are in that stage at the moment. They got swept at home in 4 against the Pirates for the first time ever, Milwaukee look to be just limping to the finish line, with little to play for. Zach Davies has been a nice starter for the Brewers this season and he dominated again the Cardinals back in June. Consistently getting through 6, he has racked up a high pitch count for a young arm and this may factor to him dropping off as the season closes out. Carlos Martinez, now an established starter at age 24, has had a stellar season. Career best ERA, WHIP and BAA, he would probably get the start for the Cardinals in a potential Wild Card game. With 2 wins over the Brewers with only 1 run given up over 13 innings in 2016. I like him to dominate here, and even if he gives up a few the Cardinals have proved to have a hard hitting offense. Cardinals lead the season series 9-3.
Suggested Bet
Cardinals $1.69
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners (10.00am AEST)
Rangers ($1.58) – Darvish (4-3, 2.91 ERA)
Mariners ($2.44) – Iwakuma (14-9, 3.81 ERA)
Prediction
Rangers. Texas are on a nice little streak at the moment, taking 3 of 4 from the AL central leading Indians, as they push further away in the West standings. Currently an 8.5 game lead over both the Astros and the Mariners, this series could signal the end of Seattle’s realistic chances. The Mariners, winners of only 1 in their last 6 have , have only won 4 of their 12 matches against the Rangers in 2016. It won’t be easy for the M’s to change that in game 1, with Yu Darvish on the mound. He has been in nice form when pitching at home, 4-0 with a 2.80 ERA over 6 starts. His last 4 starts have been solid, not spectacular but he has got the job done. He will be facing fellow countryman, Hisashi Iwakuma, who’s put up some solid numbers this season. 6-6 on the road with a 4.04 ERA, he has managed 22 K’s over 25 innings against the Rangers this year. I think the price on the Rangers straight up is way too short. 5 of the 12 matches between the two have gone under the total 8.5, which doesn’t look great, however 9 of Iwakuma’s last 15 starts ,and 7 of Yu’s 11 season starts have hit that under. For value on betting in this one, I would have to play the totals. Under for me.
Suggested Bet
Total Under 8.5 Runs $1.99
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox
The old Big Game James Shield, has had a shocking 2016, even the change of scenery has not helped. Detroit have probably played a lot better than we thought they would, with an improvement in starting pitching being a huge reason. The ageless Miguel Cabrera the other. Tigers have tended to bet up on the White Sox over the last few seasons. They currently have more to play for as well. Tigers -1.5 at $1.92
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Jake Arietta has owned the Pirates over the last few seasons 4-1 with a 1.34 ERA, the Cubbies are rolling and are embarrassing the NL Central. Pittsburgh do see themselves in the thick of a wild card race and their bats can be hot on any given day, but they can also be cold as ice way more than they should. No market around at the moment due to the game being at Wrigley field, but take the Cubbies -1.5, should be around $1.80.
Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees
Here come the Royals. With only 4 losses over their last 20 games, you cannot write this team off. New York also amongst the Wild card teams in the AL, but a 40-21 home record and on this hot streak at the price, I’m taking the Royals. KC at $1.97.
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers
LA have been on a nice run and with some hot bats over the last few weeks, would you be surprised to see them hang a few a crooked numbers in this one. Maeda seems to of finally adjusted to the MLB, with LA winning his last 6 starts. If they win they likely win be a couple. Dodgers -1.5 at $2.16.
All Prices Quoted via Crown Bet at time of writing.
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
