Welcome back to a MLB preview, I’ve found a couple of games I’m keen to bet into. It’s been awhile between these previews, however the profits have been coming, a +10u gain over the last 2 weeks has taken us out of the red well into the right spot. There looks to be some great series starting today and I’m very keen to get involved with them. Only a few days out from a mad baseball tour of the USA I’m hoping to go out on the break in style. The Pirates and Cubs face off in what looks to be an important series, even this early. The Nationals and Royals also head into 4 game home and away series. Throw in the improving Phillies against a troubled Cardinals and the day looks fun. Winning bets are what we want though, and hopefully the time spent looking at the stats can conjure up some profit.
Tuesday 3rd
Best Bet – Astros $1.55
Next Best – o7.5 Cardinals/Phillies $1.88
Next Best – Rockies $2.05 (0.5u)
Mulit – Pirates/Astros $2.91 (0.5u)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs (9.00am AEST)
Pirates ($1.89) – Cole (2-2, 2.78 ERA)
Cubs ($1.95) – Hammel (3-0, 0.75 ERA)
Prediction
Pirates. What a great series to keep the eyes open mid week, these 2 teams arguably the best in baseball have gotten off to strong starts. Both teams have the ability to get the pitch counts up high early, the top 2 teams in OPB, these games may be long. Gerrit Cole started 2016 sluggish but has bounced back in his last 2 starts giving up only 2 runs over 12 innings. His previous 2 season against the Cubs reads well, going 7-1 over 9 starts posting a 2.88 ERA. He doesn’t tend to lose many at home. Jason Hammel has been a real quiet achiever in the young season, with all eyes on Jake Arrieta, Hammel has managed to put in 4 great starts, giving up only 2 runs over 24 innings. Against these Pirates though he has not been as good going 3-4 with a 3.88 ERA over the last 3 seasons, yet he has given up a lot of hits. It’s going to be a good series and Pittsburgh will know they need to win these home games against division rivals. A weakness from last season. Expect the Pirates to be aggressive on the bases and the gamble to pay off. Your getting a nice price for either team, but I’m on the side of the Pirates, no bias.
Suggested Bet – Pirates $1.89
Multi Filler – Pirates o2.5 $1.48
Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins (10.10am AEST)
Astros ($1.55) – Keuchel (2-3, 4.41 ERA)
Twins ($2.52) – Berrios (0-1, 11.25 ERA)
Prediction
Astros. Houston have gotten off to a very shaky start to the 2016 season, and they need to turn it around quick before they get too far behind. This may be the series to do it. 2015 Cy Young winning pitcher Dallas Keuchel has been off his game so far , but he is better than his current stats suggest and with his record at home in 2015, 15-0 with a 1.46 ERA, you have to side with him here. The Twins will counter with former shortstop come hot pitching prospect Jose Berrios. He was tagged for 5 runs over 4 plus innings on his MLB debut. Yes, its growing pains and he definitely has the stuff to be an everyday pitcher in the big leagues. This will be a test against am Astros lineup they we know will get better. No way Correa and Altuve continue to slump. This series I feel they take off. Keen on the Astros here, big time. No other team strikes out more that the Astros, Twins are close. There could be runs in this series, but this game I like Keuchel.
Suggested Bet – Astros $1.55
St Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies (10.15am AEST)
Cardinals ($1.56) – Wainwright (1-3, 7.16 ERA)
Cubs ($2.50) – Hellickson (2-1, 3.81 ERA)
Prediction
Cardinals. Oh man, how off has Adam Wainwright been ? Well very, this is a guy prior to this season with a sub 3.0 career ERA. His stuff has been off, and even though it looked better his last outting he still got hard hit. Its concerning for St Louis, they needs that Ace. On the flip side they have been scoring a hell of alot of runs. Lead leaders in runs scored and top 3 in all offensive categories, this somewhat tame lineup has been working well. Runs was the big concern going into the season with pitching their real strength, the opposite has been the case so far. The Phillies have started 2016 better then probably anyone expected (aside from a few of the Twitter Phillies peeps). What has been their strength has been solid pitching and Jeremy Hellickson has been at the centre of that. The Phillies haven’t got many runs but they are due a decent outting. I think the Cardinals win, but not at that price. If you’re a Money Line better take the Phillies, I like the total here though.
Game Bet – o7.5 Total Runs $1.88
Other Games
San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies
Colorado have been alot more consistent early on this season, with a bunch of top young bats they are always alive in a game even when trailing by 4 or 5. Jon Gray looks a solid pitcher yet all his starts have been at Coors Field so don’t read much into those numbers. San Diego have issues and James Shields hasn’t been good home or away. The value on the Rockies is too good not to have something small on. $2.05, worth a little.
All Prices Quoted via Crown Bet at time of writing.
For records. Best Bet 2 Units, Next Best 1 Unit, Multi Units stated
Be back later in the week for some more insight
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
