Welcome back to a preview of some MLB games to wet your midweek betting appetite. It had been a rough weekend with the plays, however baseball is a harsh beast and over the course of the season it tends to pan out. We got the week off to a wining start on Monday and lets continue that trend. There looks to be some big roster moves so we may start to see some teams throw their arms up and virtually accept a season of losing. This can have a huge impact on betting, as you should never bet on the money line of a team who have accepted failure, this is definitely a lesson learnt over the past few years. Run totals fine, but when they start leaving pitchers in too long, or playing under prepared prospects etc it is equivalent to you burning you hard earned. Make sure to keep an eye out on the roster moves. Having said that, let’s find the winners on what looks to be a nice betting day. Only the 11 games to choose from and I’ve selected a few I’m very keen to bet into.
Tuesday 26th
Plays
Cubs -1.5 $1.83 (2u) Best Bet
Jays -1.5 $1.77 (0.5u)
Tigers $2.32 (0.5u)
Astros $1.68 (1u)
Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs (10.10am AEST)
White Sox ($2.76) – Gonzalez (2-5, 4.41 ERA)
Cubs ($1.47) – Arietta (12-4, 2.60 ERA)
Prediction
Cubs. Battle of the wind city, and two teams heading in opposite direction. After a nice start to the season the south side of town the White Sox have gone backwards, add in the last few days dramas and this looks like a team I can’t believe people were saying could actually make the post season. Shambles is a harsh word, but they are a club treading water. How much longer will their Ace Chris Sale be there for ? When things are down the last thing you need is arguably the best team in baseball visiting. Good news, perhaps for the White Sox is that the Cubs have lost the last 3 Jake Arietta starts, and his ERA has jumped from 1.74 to 2.60 over the last 4. Mind you it’s still Arietta and you can hardly bet against him, while his road ERA sits just above 3.00 he still has a sub .200 BAA on his travels and an 8-2 record. With Dexter Fowler back in the Cubs line up they have the constant threat 1 through to 9. The Sox will match up with Miguel Gonzalez who has hardly set the world alight, a 5.86 ERA at his relatively pitcher friendly home field is not a good sign, a .296 BAA as well. Arietta to bounce back and grab his first win post All Star break.
Suggested Bet
Cubs -1.5 $1.83
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres (9.05am AEST)
Blue Jays ($2.76) – Sanchez (10-1, 2.87 ERA)
Padres ($1.47) – Rea (5-4, 5.01 ERA)
Prediction
Blue Jays. The Padres head to Toronto on a home run spree, still wot winning many games, but none the less scoring runs via the long ball. Not many better home run friendly fields than the Rogers Center. There looks to be runs in this series and in this opening game the pitching matchup does heavily favour Toronto. The Jays have a tough schedule post this Padres series and they really need to take advantage of a weaker team. If there is going to be runs then I will take the Jays scoring a few more. Arron Sanchez has been solid all season, even though his home stuff has been iffy. It is a hitter friendly park after all. With a total run line set at 9, i’d prefer to lean the side of the Jays winning by a couple. Its either play the Over 9.5 or Jays RL, i’ll take the later for something small.
Suggested Bet
Jays -1.5 $1.77
Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers (9.10am AEST)
Red Sox ($1.65) – Pomeranz (8-7, 2.83 ERA)
Tigers ($2.32) – Verlander (9-6, 3.74 ERA)
Prediction
Tigers. Drew Pomeranz was not his best in his Sox debut, even though signs point to a break through season. Is this really a top of the rotation quality arm, he had pitched in the pitcher friendly confines of Petco Park don’t forget so I think we need to take that into account in regards to his season stats plus his appearances have mainly been in National League games. It’s easy to get carried away with the Sox bats producing well but they almost lost a home series to the Twins, and gave up a lot of runs against a team that struggles to get on base. Boston have served me well this season but the price for me is wrong. Justin Verlander has been decent in 2016, and on any given day he is likely to produce unhittable stuff. Its a coin toss of a game but the price has to have me siding with the Tigers. There has been runs in Fenway of late and the Tigers can mash the ball with the best of them.
Suggested Bet
Tigers $2.32
Other Games
Houston Astros vs New York Yankees
The Astros are rolling, and with the ace on the mound I have to take the “inflated” odds, as we usually see in games involving the Yankees. Dallas Keuchel does not lose many at home and against a Yankees team that is going nowhere, they just win. Valbuena and Altuve have been on fire of late and will continue to cause havoc this series. Cannot believe this price… should be $1.40. Take the Stros $1.68.
All Prices Quoted via Crown Bet at time of writing.
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
