Welcome back to a small little preview of couple of selected MLB games. It’s been an up and down week and have been so close to a huge day. It’s still been good to us but always room to improve. I’ve looked at many plays over the last week and I’ve come to a pretty firm stance on under betting on totals. I use to really like them however with some pretty ordinary bullpens out there at the moment I won’t be playing any Under bets for the foreseeable future. They are always a dangerous bet with potential of games going into extra innings, imploding bullpens and blow outs with teams giving weaker relief pitchers “trash” time. Looks to be a quiet day for tomorrows plays but I have found a couple I want to bet into.
Thursday 15th
Best Bet – Marlins -1.5 $2.20 (1u)
Double – o8.5 Mets/Cubs & o8.5 Pirates/Rox $3.01 (0.5u)
Miami Marlins vs Oakland A’s (2.10am AEST)
Marlins ($1.61) – Volquez (3-7, 3.41 ERA)
A’s ($2.38) – Gossett (—, -.– ERA)
The Miami Marlins are starting to make some noise after a slow start to the season. All coinciding with Stanton’s eventual hot streak. Winning 11 of their last 16 and trying to creep back to the .500 mark they have been able to combine solid pitching with powerful hitting. Another hot property on the Marlins roster has been pitcher Edison Volquez who had a no hitter 2 starts ago, has given up 1 run in his last 3 starts over 22 innings. A 2.40 Home ERA over 5 starts and .152 BAA. For the A’s it will be Daniel Gossett making his first MLB start. A 3.41 ERA in Triple A with a pretty decent WHIP of 1.13,BB/9 of 2.8 and K/9 of 8.0. So the ability is definitely there. It will be a tough ask up against an in form Marlins lineup and with the A’s having 9-24 away record, plus the Marlins covering the run line in 8 of their last 9 home wins and in 23 of their 28 wins on the season I know where I’m looking.
Suggested Bet – Marlins -1.5 $2.20
New YorkMets vs Chicago Cubs (9.10am AEST)
Mets ($2.00) – Harvey (4-3, 5.02 ERA)
Cubs ($1.83) – Montgomery (0-3, 2.43 ERA)
It has not got to plan for either of these teams so far in 2017. The Mets struck down with pitching injuries and issues and can really explain the Cubs .500 baseball after last season’s performance. Matt Harvey will take the mound for the Mets and it has not been a good season for the Dark Knight. Struggling to pitch past 5 innings in 5 starts at Citi field he has a rather poor 6.11 ERA. Each start he is expected to bounce back and produce his former self but perhaps it’s just gone. For the Cubs Mike Montgomery will make his 2nd start of the season. He gave up 2 runs in 4 innings which took him 72 pitches to get through. With the Cubs bats showing some life in the 2nd game of the series the total was likely to look high, and it is. A 9 run line set by the books I’ll be happy to take the over 8.5 for something small.
Suggested Bet – Over 8.5 Runs $1.65
Other Games
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies
The strong Rox offense has been left quiet over the last few days but they get an easier job with Chad Kuhl getting the start for the Pirates. Pittsburgh bats have been no slouches of late at home and with the Rockies due to score a couple the over 8.5 on the Run total looks super appealing.
All Prices Quoted via Crown Bet at time of writing.
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
