Welcome back to a preview of some MLB action to finish off another weekend. July 4th weekend in the USA is always full of Baseball with plenty of day games around and key matchups locked in. The Giants and Nationals series the standout with a few top of the division clashes also around. It’s been a quiet week with little action and what has been played has been wide of the mark. Saturday was a little better and hopefully that’s a sign of a change in fortune. We near the All Star break with teams to be announced on Sunday, and its nearing time for a play on some updated future markets as we get a better understanding of where teams are headed. There no doubt will be a few shocks in the 2nd half of the season as trades happen and the push for the post season heats up. I’ll Jump straight into some keys game where there looks to be some value to be had. No as many short prices around tomorrow as there has been recently.
Sunday 5th
Best Bet – Cardinals -1.5 at $2.20
Next Best – Giants at $2.00
Multi – Mariners/Tigers at $3.07
Best Run Line – o8.5 Reds/Brewers at $1.92
San Francisco Giants vs Washington National (1.05am AEST)
Giants ($2.00) – Bumgarner (8-4, 2.99)
Nationals ($1.85) – Strasburg (5-5, 5.49)
Prediction
Giants. After a tight 2-1 win on Saturday the Nats will throw this season inconsistent version of Stephen Strasburg on the mound to face off against Madison Bumgarner. Mad Bum stifled this Nats team in last season NLDS and he is at a tasty price to do so again. Strasburg has not been his best at all this season where he holds a 4.05 ERA at home and the Nats not even winning half the games he starts in. The usually reliable Bumgarner has been a little off on the road but still holds a solid 3.64 ERA on his travels. He should have a better winning record however he has struggled to get run support with the anaemic Giants batting lineup doing its utter most to drive him insane. This looks a low scorer and I have to take $2.00 when on offer for Bumgarner.
Suggested Bet
Giants at $2.00
Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers (3.05am AEST)
Blue Jays ($2.00) – Dickey (3-8, 4.85)
Tigers ($1.78) – Price (7-2, 2.62)
Prediction
Tigers. After taking a no hitter into the 8th inning up 8-0 the Tigers made Saturdays game alot more uncomfortable then it should of been holding on to win 8-6. Toronto’s offense is so potent and they clearly are the highest scoring team in the MLB. David Price who has been going about his business with little fan fare this season will look to contain them. The Tigers have lost only 3 games out of the 16 he has started for them this season and his ERA in day games sits at 2.16. They will likely be without Miguel Cabrera so the offense may be a little weaker. RA Dickey on the other side has been struggling on the road with an ERA of 5.79 and yet to get a Win. Price to contain the Jays and Detroit to take this as long as he can pitch deep into the game. Tigers bullpen Soria aside, is prone to giving up the lead so hopefully he can at least pitch through 7.
Suggested Bet
Tigers at $1.78
San Diego Padres vs St Louis Cardinals (4.15am AEST)
Padres ($2.64) – Despaigne (3-6, 4.94)
Tigers ($1.51) – Martinez (9-3, 2.80)
Prediction
Cardinals. With a lot of the MLB eyes on St Louis off field drama’s on field they have had a little bleep of late losing 4 straight at home for the first time this season and actually giving up some ground on the NL Central lead. Lucky for them the uninspiring Padres are in town even though they took the first 2. The Cardinals will throw exciting youngster Carlos Martinez on the mound where he has a solid home record of 4-1 in 7 starts. However his ERA in day time games sits at 1.39 with opposing batters only hitting .183. Padres arm for the game is Cuban born Odrisamer Despaigne who is having a rough time this year and his work on the road has been pretty poor. A 5.66 road ERA with an inconsistent and pretty weak batting lineup behind him does not bold well. Take the Cardinals and take them well.
Suggested Bet
Cardinals -1.5 at $2.20
Seattle Mariners vs Oakland A’s (6.05am AEST)
Mariners ($1.73) – Hernandez (10-4, 3.05)
A’s ($2.16) – Graveman (5-4, 3.47)
Prediction
Mariners. Disappointing would be one way to describe both of these teams season so far. The A’s have improved of late but still plenty of work to do. King Felix can’t do all the work alone for the Mariners who have the worst batting in the MLB even with Cano and Cruz around. On to this game though and the King does have a pretty solid record of late in O.co Stadium going 5-0 in 7 starts over the last 3 years with an ERA of 2.10. His record in day games as well which should be noted sits at 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA. Kendall Graveman has been a bit of a spark of late for the A’s winning his last 2 while giving up only 2 runs in 14 innings. Not in the same class as Hernandez and his home record is pretty poor 1-3 with a 5.16 ERA. Mariners get 3 or so runs they win this. Can be a concern though
Suggested Bet
Mariners at $1.73
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinatti Reds (9.15am AEST)
Brewers ($1.94) – Nelson (5-8, 4.48)
Reds ($1.90) – Smith (0-1, 5.63)
Prediction
Reds. A few weeks out from hosting the All Star game and the Home Run derby the Great American Ball (Small) Park looks to be welcoming home runs with open arms. A Carlos Gomez grand slam topped of the Brewers 12-1 mauling of the Reds on Saturday. This could be the theme all weekend this series, especially in this game with Jimmy Nelson facing off against Josh Smith. Smith has been hit pretty bad in both Pittsburgh and New York (Mets) in his 2 MLB starts, both of those fields generally know as a bit more pitcher friendly. Compare that to GABP where home runs are just deep fly balls in any other park. Both of these teams have powerful hitters and I think the Reds will get to Nelson as well with a 4.99 road ERA and a record of 3-5. Both teams bullpens are nothing to write home about, be amazed if we didn’t get a couple of home runs in this one.
Suggested Bet
o8.5 Runs at $1.92
New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers (9.15am AEST)
Mets ($2.47) – Harvey (7-5, 2.99)
Dodgers ($1.57) – Greinke (6-2, 1.58)
Prediction
Dodgers. Zack Greinke has been in amazing form this season and it really is hard to see a poor Mets batting lineup do too much damage here. On the other side of the coin though you have the stellar Matt Harvey who has bounced back from a rough patch to get back to the level we expect. He got his ERA back under 3.00 and it will likely end the season under that mark. One game I probably wouldn’t want to make a play on at all here. It looks to be a low scorer but the bookies have that tight at a line of 6.0. Greinke only giving up 12 earned run in 9 home starts and Harvey has had the wobbles at times. If I had to make a play I would take Dodgers -1.5 at $2.38. Not much
Suggested Bet
Dodgers -1.5 at $2.38
For records. Best Bet 2 Units, Next Best 1 Unit, Multi 0.5 Units (unless stated otherwise)
Will be back midweek for another preview. Hope you all have a good week with your MLB betting. Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
