Welcome back to a preview of some MLB action to finish off another weekend. They seem to be flying by these days. An unlucky week with 3 games in particular ending as bad beats. With late leads being abolished or unfortunate errors costing us what would of been the best week, profit wise, for the whole season. We move on, but main thing is we are there abouts and not far off. Let’s turn that around in the coming week.
We are starting to get a clearer picture of each teams strengths and weakness when we evaluate betting power. Teams like the Mariners for example really struggle to score runs, you can never be comfortable with money on them (Run line particularly) even when their Ace like King Felix is pitching. Other teams, for example the Blue Jays always give you hope even a couple of runs behind and they very easily can put runs on the board and get you back in it. Something to look at with regards to betting in play especially. Run line bets seem to work best on certain teams. Blue Jays tend to win by a few when they win as do the A’s. A plus 43 run differential even though they are 8 games under .500. If you like them to win, may be worth to play the run line. Keep that in mind. Anyways on to the action, even though there is a full card of games there isn’t too much that stands out. As always I will do my best to find something however there looks to be better betting days on the horizon.
Sunday 28th
Best Bet – o6.5 Dodgers/Marlins at $1.72
Next Best – Blue Jays at $1.85
Multi – Orioles/Dodgers/Mets at $3.90
Best Run Line – o7.0 D-Backs/Padres at $2.09
Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays (3.05am AEST)
Rangers ($1.99) – Gallardo (6-6, 2.98)
Blue Jays ($1.85) – Boyd (0-0, -.–)
Prediction
Blue Jays. The still relatively hot Blue Jays face off against the cooling down Texas Rangers in game 2 of this series. Toronto took game one thanks to that deadly batting line up lead by 2 Encarnacion home runs. They will have Matt Boyd on the mound for them starting his first big league game. After only a brief stint in Triple A he gets the call up, he did have an ERA of 1.10 in his time in Double A though. Gallardo has been pretty good of late combining for 12 scoreless innings and has not allowed more than 2 runs in any outing since mid May. I expect that to change here. I see Toronto continuing the hitting the unknown however is how Boyd will adapt to his first game in the big league. Price is reasonable still so will stick with the home team on the batting power alone.
Suggested Bet
Blue Jays at $1.85
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays (6.10am AEST)
Red Sox($1.98) – Miley (7-6, 4.50)
Rays ($1.86) – Andriese (2-2, 3.79)
Prediction
Rays. Wade Miley has been on the improve since a rocky start to the season, however he hasn’t had much help from a struggling Red Sox line up and it’s just very hard to put faith in this current Boston team. Many picking them to win the AL East, myself at least thinking they would challenge. We all seem off the mark. It’s just been a first half of the season to forget. On the other side of the coin the Tamp Bay Rays have been very impressive with their pitching being the main reason they currently have exceeded all expectations. Matt Andriese will try and bounce back from a rough start in his last showing and will want to finally get a start past 5 innings at least. I can’t have the Sox at the moment even though I think this is close.
Suggested Bet
Rays at $1.86
Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets (6.10am AEST)
Reds ($2.53) – Lorenzen (3-2, 3.56)
Mets ($1.55) – Harvey (7-5, 3.18)
Prediction
Mets. Finally back on track after some rough going, the Dark Knight (Matt Harvey) has given up only 1 run over his last 2 starts with 11 K’s thrown in there. One of them a loss however due to his team very poor batting lineup. The Mets, s solid home record of 27-11 its hard to go against them in this one especially as the Reds have never ever beaten Harvey. Cincinnati by comparison have been pretty dire on the road going 14-24. Lorenzen is no ace, but he hasn’t been too bad having 5 quality starts in his last 6. Low scoring game perhaps, and the Mets have the relief to hold on if needed.
Suggested Bet
Mets at $1.55
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins (6.10am AEST)
Dodgers ($1.44) – Kershaw (5-5, 3.33)
Marlins ($2.90) – Koeheler (5-4, 3.76)
Prediction
Dodgers. I really don’t know what to say about the Marlins anymore. A team with high expectations has been hugely disappointing. Apart from Stanton and his freak like power hitting there has been little bright spark for them. Yelich and Ozuna are yet to get going and that infield (Gordon aside) has been woeful. Doesn’t get any easier facing the Dodgers, they lost game one of the series now they have to face Kershaw. I don’t think it will be a blow out, but hard to see Marlins winning it. Wouldn’t take the $1.44 on offer for Kershaw that’s just too low. I do however really like the overs on the run line. Marlins can get runs with Stanton and you have to think Dodgers put up a few.
Suggested Bet
o6.5 runs at $1.72
Cleveland Indians vs Baltimore Orioles (9.15am AEST)
Indians ($2.12) – Anderson (0-0, 0.00)
Orioles ($1.75) – Tillman(5-7, 6.22)
Prediction
Orioles. Baltimore continue to stay under the radar, slowly getting back above .500 and looking to make ground on the division leaders. Chris Tillman is probably part of the reason for the sluggish start for the O’s this year. He has not been at his best and not been the arm they need him to be. That has to change and I expect it will sooner rather than later. He is better than his woeful numbers and at the moment he gets the benefit of the doubt. They are warming up their bats the Orioles so he is likely to get some run support especially at Camden Yards. The Indians, another team that has disappointed this season throw Cody Anderson on the mound, who is coming off a stellar MLB Debut outing where he gave up 0 runs in over 7 innings. How does he handle his 2nd game ? Tillman can’t be as bad as he was in his last outing plus the Orioles have a solid home record. I like that price on offer for them in this one.
Suggested Bet
Orioles at $1.75
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres (12.10pm AEST)
D-Backs ($2.20) – Hellickson (5-4, 4.94)
Padres ($1.70) – Cashner (2-9, 4.35)
Prediction
D-Backs. Led by MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona have been a lot better this season then expected. The Padres will put Cashner on the mound who has seen his ERA gradually get worse as the season progresses. He has not worked past the 5th inning in his last 2 starts, and the once pitcher friendly Petco Park can now give up runs. The D-Backs can surely score them, ranking 2nd in the NL in runs scored. Padres also, can put up a few ranking 5th in the NL in runs. I see runs in this series somewhere and I hope it’s here.
Suggested Bet
o7.0 runs at $2.09
For records. Best Bet 2 Units, Next Best 1 Unit, Multi 0.5 Units (unless stated otherwise)
Will be back midweek for another preview. Hope you all have a good week with your MLB betting. Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
