Welcome back to a preview of some MLB action to close out your weekend. The last few days saw the beginning of the trade market take off. With both the Astros and Pirates making decent moves to solidify their position in the race for the post season. No doubt the next few days we will see more with big name pitchers Hamels and Cueto possibly making their last starts for their current teams. The Wild Card race in the AL is going to be a close one and it’s interesting to see what teams see themselves as buyers or sellers. It’s been a decent end to the week punting wise as a few days of small profits keep the units chugging along in the right direction. There is some good match ups tomorrow and a full schedule of games for your Sunday of sport. Hopefully some winners to be had. Let’s get to it.
Best Bet – Angels -1.5 at $2.31
Next Best – Pirates at $1.72
Best Multi – Mariners/Cubs at $3.10
Best Totals Line – Astros/Royals o8.0 at $1.84
Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs (6.05am AEST)
Phillies ($2.58) -Hamels (5-7, 3.91)
Cubs ($1.53) – Arrieta (11-5, 2.52)
Prediction
Cubs. After losing the opening game of the series, the Cubs will want to take advantage of games against the lesser teams in order to stay in contact with that wild card spot. They throw dominate, and at times under rated pitcher Jake Arrieta on the mound. Up against a potential trade target in Cole Hamels. In what could be his last start for the struggling Phillies. With a lot of eyes on Hamels, needing to prove he is healthy and worthy a decent trade he will have to bounce back from his shocking run of games giving up 14 runs over his last 2 games in only 6 innings. 3-5 on the road with a 4.74 ERA, does not bold well. Arrieta has been solid across the board with a knack for pitching deep into games. Take the Cubs here, they need to be winning games like this.
Suggested Bet
Cubs at $1.53
Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners (6.10am AEST)
Blue Jays ($1.82) -Hutchinson (9-2, 5.19)
Mariners ($2.03) – Happ (4-5, 4.12)
Prediction
Mariners. The Mariners have been hitting a bit better of late which is a good sign, as that has been their issue all season. Some pundits have hope for them still, but they need to get a move on to just get to .500. The inability to put together a win streak is stopping that from happening. J.A Happ will be up against his former team here, he started the season well but has since struggled. However, in 8 games started at Safeco field, he is sporting a pretty solid 2.66 ERA. Hutchinson coming off the back of an illness has been helped alot this season by the Jays bats, 9-2 with an ERA of 5.19 ? So we know Toronto can hit, but they also give up runs. Hutchinson on the road is one of the main culprits with an 8.81 road ERA and opposing hitters batting .372 against him. Taking Seattle at that price with this matchup. Cano, Cruz and Seager have hit well over the last few days, that continues we are in business.
Suggested Bet
Mariners at $2.03
Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates (9.05am AEST)
Nationals ($2.17) -Gonzalez (7-4, 3.93)
Pirates ($1.72) – Burnett (8-3, 2.44)
Prediction
Pirates. Taking the first 2 games of this 4 game series, Pittsburgh turn to their 2 gun pitchers in the last 2 games of the series. A.J Burnett sporting an insane home ERA of 1.58 (somehow only 2 wins over 8 starts) will look to get his 35th career win with the Pirates. The Nationals match him up with Gio Gonzalez who has been pretty good of late with a July record of 2-0 and a 1.89 ERA over 3 starts. He also threw a solid game against these Pirates at the end of June giving up 0 runs and 4 hits over 7 innings. His road performances have been a concern though going 2-3 over 9 starts with a 5.36 ERA, and opposing batters hitting .308. Pirates learnt from Max Scherzer no hitting them and obviously studied some tape, think they learn again and manage to get to Gio. The Nats have injury concerns and that lineup is just patching over in the meantime. Aramis Ramirez makes his Pirates return after his move from the Brewers. Think they will celebrate that win a win.
Suggested Bet
Pirates at $1.72
Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians (9.10am AEST)
White Sox ($2.01) – Sale (8-5, 2.86)
Indians ($1.84) – Carrasco (10-7, 3.94)
Prediction
White Sox. Two teams who have really under achieved this season especially with the pitching staff they both possess. We all know how good Chris Sale has been of late, last outing aside. He has been superb. Definite Cy Young candidate. Carrasco has been a rumoured trade chip for the Indians, he is a solid pitcher. His home record isn’t particularly good though 4-5 with a 4.57 ERA. Can’t really split this game at all, and Sale is the better pitcher. Have to take the price on offer for Sale and the Sox.
Suggested Bet
White Sox at $2.01
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets (9.10am AEST)
Dodgers ($2.15) – Lee (–, -.–)
Mets ($1.74) – Harvey (8-7, 3.19)
Prediction
Mets. Looking to snap a 3 game losing streak and stay above .500 the Mets turn to Matt Harvey. They need to keep pace with the Nats, even though they won’t catch them. The wild card is still an aim and likely offensive additions on the way via trades. The Mets have the rotation to do damage in the postseason if they make it. Harvey has been solid at home this season 5-2 over 9 starts with a 2.95 ERA. Can the Mets bats help him though ? The Dodgers will throw Zach Lee his MLB debut, in 2 seasons of Triple A ball he has netted a 4.44 ERA. Even though the Dodgers can score runs with the best of them, I like Harvey to keep them contained enough to get the Mets the win and back in the winning column.
Suggested Bet
Mets at $1.74
Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels (11.05am AEST)
Rangers ($2.40) – Gallardo (7-9, 2.91)
Angels ($1.74) – Santiago (7-4, 2.30)
Prediction
Angels. The late game out West throws the ever improving and impressive Hector Santiago on the mound for the Angels up against the slumping Rangers and Yovani Gallardo. Tied for 2nd best ERA in the AL Santiago continues to get better year after year in his promising career. The 27 year old has been dominating at home with a 2.22 ERA over 11 starts and holding opposing hitters just above the Mendoza line. He will have the bats to back him up as well. Gallardo had been a bright spark during the Rangers impressive run of games in May. They have since fallen below .500 and dreams of the post season fading. Gallardo’s last 3 starts have been harsh giving up 11 runs over 14 innings. Pitching and hitting advantage to the Angels in this one.
Suggested Bet
Angels -1.5 at $2.31
For records. Best Bet 2 Units, Next Best 1 Unit, Multi 0.5 Units (unless stated otherwise)
Hope you all have a good week with your MLB betting. Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
