Welcome back to a preview of some MLB action to finish off what has been another great weekend of Sport. With a full deck of games being spread out from the early morning through to your Sunday afternoon, there is plenty to choose from, and plenty of chances to nab some winnings. Let’s try and help you out if you are looking to do so. Plenty of games to get too, I’ll skip the small talk.
Sunday 21st
Best Bet – Blue Jays at $1.81
Next Best – Royals at $1.80
Multi – Astros/Reds at $3.15
Best Run Line – o10.5 Brewers/Rockies $1.81
Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays (3.05am AEST)
Orioles ($2.05) – Gausman (1-0, 4.50)
Blue Jays ($1.81) – Buehrle (7-4, 4.01)
Prediction
Blue Jays. Said the same last week and I will repeat myself again. Very hard to bet against the Jays at the moment. A deadly batting line up in good form, and apart from 2 losses in New York mid week they have won 14 of their last 16 games. 23-12 at home and with a pitcher in Buehrle who has been in decent shape of late they look a solid play here. he Orioles are also in a decent run of form losing only 3 of their last 12. Hard throwing Gausman making his first start of the year, I’ll take that Toronto line up at home. In baseball you usually bet on a pitcher out performing the other arm, with Toronto I bet on their bats out hitting the others.
Suggested Bet – Blue Jays at $1.81
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals (6.05am AEST)
Pirates ($2.14) – Liriano (4-5, 2.94)
Nationals ($1.37) – Scherzer (7-5, 1.93)
Prediction
Pirates. The Nats cooled down the hot Pirates on Saturday and the pitching matchup looks to favour them again. Not something that generally happens when Liriano is pitching, however Scherzer has been that good of late. Coming off a one hitter against the Brewers Mad Max looks to grab his 8th win of the year. Liriano’s numbers are a tad skewed, one rough outing and lack of run support makes his record look worse then how he is pitching. My concern with the Pirates in this series is that they have not actually been hitting great of late and the arms are the real reason for the recent success. Both of them likely to regress a tad over the next week. Think this one is close. Taking both Pitchers to get a no decision and Pittsburgh winning it late. Not one for my money though. Would play over’s if I was forced.
Suggested Bet – o6.5 runs at $1.83
Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies (6.10am AEST)
Brewers ($2.14) – Lohse (3-8, 6.44)
Rockies ($1.75) – Bettis (2-2, 3.74)
Prediction
Rockies. Two bad teams in a ballpark that loves some Home Runs. Lohse has been giving up home runs all too often this season and this matchup you can almost guarantee he will so again. Bettis is coming off some bad starts of his own. Not much to say about this game apart from expect runs. I wouldn’t play wither team to win this, look at the run line of 10.5. Over’s actually seems decent value.
Suggested Bet – o10.5 runs at $1.81
Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals (9.10am AEST)
Red Sox ($2.05) – Porcello(4-7, 5.29)
Royals ($1.80) – Volquez (6-4, 3.10)
Prediction
Royals. Kansas continue to chug along and rack up wins, even with Boston snapping their 4 game win streak on Saturday. Consistency is the key and Kansas have been doing it all season. Boston however have not been. Rapidly losing pace on the AL East teams they languish dead last after picking up only 3 wins in their last 11. While I think Porcello is the best arm they have, he has not been very good this season at all. Even with a low walk rate, he is still letting too many runners on base. Volquez on the other hand with a huge walk rate manages to usually find a way to escape jams. He has been a solid addition to the Royals rotation this year and he usually gets some run and defensive support. I rate the Royals around the $1.70 mark here so happy to take anything above that.
Suggested Bet – Royals at $1.80
Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds (9.10am AEST)
Marlins ($2.10) – Koehler (5-4, 3.76)
Reds ($1.77) – DeSclafani (5-4, 3.36)
Prediction
Reds. Two teams that have been rather disappointing so far this season, with no signs of that turning around. Stanton can’t do it himself no matter how much he tries. While the Reds have been injury plagued and too inconsistent. Marlins pitcher Koehler is not good on the road having a 6.21 ERA away from home. DeSclafani has not lost a game since mid may and his ERA has been decreasing ever since. I think he gets this one also. Apart from Stanton hitting a few home runs I can’t see Miami winning this.
Suggested Bet – Reds at $1.77
San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers (9.15am AEST)
Giants ($2.26) – Hudson (4-6, 4.65)
Dodgers ($1.67) – Frias (4-4, 4.14)
Prediction
Dodgers. The Giants for some reason have the thumb over the Dodgers so far this season. Its probably the reason why LA have not run away with this division. After a solid run a few weeks back San Fran have cooled down. Los Angeles bats have hit a cool streak (by their standards) though so pitching becomes even more crucial. Frias having already got one win over the Giants this season will look to do it again, however he will need to have better control with his 4 losses for the season coming with issues walking batters. Neither pitcher in fantastic shape I wouldn’t be taking the Dodgers at this price today even though I think they win.
Suggested Bet – o7.5 runs at $1.92
Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners (10.10am AEST)
Astros ($1.78) – Keuchel (8-2, 2.04)
Mariners ($2.09) – Walker (4-6, 5.00)
Prediction
Astros. Coming into the season you would of thought these 2 teams position in the AL West standing would be reversed. The Mariners have been this seasons biggest shock for me. They just cannot get runners on base. They rank 29th in runs and dead last in Batting average. Lucky for them they are only 7 games below .500. If they can sort out their hitting they would probably be in the Al West race, even this early it’s looking a bridge too far. On the flip side you have a great pitching and surprisingly great batting team in the Astros. Dallas Keuchel has been the star for them and he ranks in the top 3 for AL pitchers in all key stats. Walker looks to have a bright future in the game however it’s been a rough season so far. With a handful of good starts the signs are there. Hard to play against Keuchel especially when he faces a poor hitting team.
Suggested Bet – Astros at $1.78
Futures
Blue Jays AL East Divison $4.00 (TAB)
Royals AL Central Divsion $2.25 (TAB)
Price is still good enough for me to have a go at. TAB also allows multis on these markets.
$9.00 for both of these. Playing (0.5u) as it plays well with future plays from pre season.
For records. Best Bet 2 Units, Next Best 1 Unit, Multi 0.5 Units (unless stated otherwise)
Home Run Charity Update
Current Home Runs for our Charity
Stanton – 25
Trout – 18
Total – $430
Will be back midweek for another preview. Hope you all have a good week with your MLB betting. Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
