After a few days off, the MLB season is back underway. There was some nice profits to be made out of the Home Run derby, with Giancarlo Stanton putting on an impressive display of power. Aside from the All Star game, there has not been much else happening. A few trades here and there but I expect that to heat up over the next week or so as teams decided if they are all in for the 2016 season, or rebuilding. Definitely an intriguing period ahead, as some hot or cold starts to the 2nd half could change a teams outlook. Pirates, Mariners, Yankees and Cardinals all seem to be at a crossroad. I’d expect both New York teams to be making some sort of roster moves. In the meantime let’s try and get back on the winning path.
Sunday 17th
Plays
Orioles $1.77 (1u) Best Bet
Indians $1.72 (1u)
Pirates $2.02 (0.5u)
Cardinals/Orioles $2.81 (0.5u)
Rockies $1.90 (0.5u)
Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles (8.10am AEST)
Rays ($2.10) – Moore (5-6, 4.46 ERA)
Orioles ($1.77) – Tillman (12-2, 3.41 ERA)
Prediction
Orioles. The Tampa Bay Rays have been nothing short of woeful over the last month of baseball, winning one 1 of their last 12, and bleeding runs. The usually safe confines of Tropicana have not been so kind this year with Tampa holding an 18-29 home record. Baltimore has owned the Rays in the season series so far winning 8 of the 10. One weakness for the Orioles is their starting pitching, but not Chris Tillman who has bounced back lovely in 2016. With 2 wins over the Rays already, he has thrown 16 K’s over 16 innings. He has been backed by an impressive offense that shows no signs of slowing down. I think they can notch up 5 or so runs here which should be enough for Tillman and the lights out O’s bullpen lead by Zach Britton. I’m pretty happy with the price available here.
Suggested Bet
Orioles $1.77
Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates (9.05am AEST)
Nationals ($1.83) – Roark (8-5, 3.01 ERA)
Pirates ($2.02) – Cole (5-4, 2.77 ERA)
Prediction
Pirates. A huge reason for the Pirates sluggish season has been the absence of their ace on the staff, Gerrit Cole. 4th place in Cy Young votes last season, Pittsburgh will hope he can keep his usually soild performances up as they make a run for a 4th consecutive post season appearance. This looks like the game they have to win to avoid a series sweep with a matchup against Max Scherzer due in the rubber game. Cole did well in his rehab start in Triple A with 12 K’s over 8 scoreless innings, plus he has done well against the Nats before with a 1.74 ERA and .194 BAA against them over the last 3 season. Tanner Roark is no slouch though his stuff at home has been solid 4-3 with a 2.64 ERA, he has however given up 5 runs over 9 innings in 3 appearances against the Pirates in recent time. Both teams seem to be getting their bats in order at the right time. This however looks like a low scorer and with the way the Bucs bullpen was leading into the All Star break i’m giving the edge to them. You won’t get many Gerrit Cole starts with him around the even money.
Suggested Bet
Pirates $2.02
Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Indians (9.05am AEST)
Twins ($2.17) – Duffey (5-6, 5.20 ERA)
Indians ($1.72) – Bauer (7-3, 3.30 ERA)
Prediction
Indians. Even though they limped into the All Star break, im expecting Cleveland to come back refreshed and kick away from the pack in the AL Central. Heading into that break they were the only team in the division with a plus run differential and the best in the American League. Guess what team was worst ? The Twins. Baseball has a lot of stats but run differential is one of the most basic but tells so much. Teams with plus differentials make October baseball. Trevor Bauer had a nice first half of the season, and his 2.57 road ERA was impressive. He has taken a loss against the Twins but that was prior to the Indians really getting going. Tyler Duffey has chalked up 3 wins on the trot but you can chalk that up to help from his teammates with 48 runs in his last 4 starts. Hard to lose those games. In his 7 starts at home he has a terrible 7.45 ERA and .329 BAA. How do you not take the Indians in some form with the current price on offer. With Lindor and the rejuvenated Mike Napoli leading the way, I like the Indians bats to just score enough for Bauer and the pen to win it.
Suggested Bet
Indians $1.72
St Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins (9.15am AEST)
Cardinals ($1.59) – Wainwright (8-5, 4.49 ERA)
Marlins ($2.42) – Koehler (6-7, 4.5ERA)
Prediction
Cardinals. This Marlins team seems to the the real deal, and with plenty of games against the lowly NL East teams left they look a real chance of a post season appearance. One of those other teams in the hunt is the St Louis Cardinals. With a loss in the opening game, St Louis needs to bounce back, they don’t want to get to close to hitting that .500 mark. Adam Wainwright will be tasked with the job, its been a poor season by his standards, but his last 2 starts show he looks to be trending in the right direction. Just the 1 run over 14 innings. His home stuff has still been good in a poor season with a 2.93 ERA at Busch Stadium. Tom Koehler will be on the other side of the coin, with a nice start to the season seemingly dropped away prior to the break. With Miami only winning 7 of his 18 starts, his inability to go deep in games is a huge issue. A .298 road BAA and 4.73 ERA I can’t put faith in him. While Miami are winning, it’s the bats mainly that seem to be the cause, and if my thoughts are correct I like Wainwright to continue his bounce back.
Suggested Bet
Cardinals $1.59
Other Games
Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies
Not much to say about either team apart from the fact that the Rockies have a much better batting lineup and are not trying to “tank” the season. Runs, runs and home runs, I like there to be a few but the price on the Rox is enough for me. Colorado $1.90, i’ll snatch that up quick smart for a tiny play.
All Prices Quoted via Crown Bet at time of writing.
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
