Welcome back to a preview of some MLB action to close out your weekend. Been a fun first half of the season and the overall profit sits just over +10u going into this weekends play. Lets go into the All Star break and 2nd half of the year with some confidence. There is a full schedule of games so plenty of options out there. Just a few key games I’m interested in however.
Best Bet – Pirates at $1.80
Next Best – Royals at $1.89
Best Multi – Indians/Mets at $2.54
Best Totals Line – Astros/Rays Under 7.0 at $1.78
Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals (4.10am AEST)
Blue Jays ($1.95) -Buehrle (9-5, 3.38)
Royals ($1.89) – Young (7-4, 2.89)
Prediction
Royals. Two veteran pitchers going at it as Chris Young will look to change his poor home form. It’s odd considering Kauffman Stadium should suit his pitching style, generating a lot of fly balls with a huge outfield. Especially with that impressive defense of the Royals which some experts are calling the best in 50 years. Not the case as his home ERA sits at 4.07 and he has been much better on the road. Mark Buehrle has been rather consistent and has pitched deep into each of his last 5 starts. The Jays bats have been relatively quiet and that’s the reason for their record dropping back to .500. Not so good on the road compared to the Royals nice home record. Think this tilts the Royals way.
Suggested Bet
Royals at $1.89
Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets (6.10am AEST)
D-backs ($2.38) – Corbin (1-0, 3.60)
Mets ($1.61) – Harvey (7-6, 3.11)
Prediction
Mets. After a 4-2 on Saturday to start the series, the Mets will be looking to head into the all star break with confidence. A candidate to make trades to bolster their batting they will have their number one arm on the mound in Matt Harvey. A positive end to the first half of the season is likely to make them aggressive in the trade market. The Mets have been built on the back of very strong pitching and I like them to keep the runs to a minimum here. Harvey has gone 4-2 at home this season with an ERA of 3.00. He did get the win in June in Arizona where he pitched 7 strong innings giving up 2 runs. Patrick Corbin is making only his 2nd start of the season getting the win after pitching 5 innings of 2 run ball. His road performances over the previous seasons has been an issue with a 4.68 ERA over his last 25 starts. While the D-backs may have the batting advantage here, the Mets have the huge pitching advantage. Stick with Matt Harvey.
Suggested Bet
Mets at $1.61
Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs (6.05am AEST)
White Sox ($2.01) – Sale (7-4, 2.80)
Cubs ($1.84) – Lester (4-7, 3.48)
Prediction
White Sox. Local interleague rivalry throws up a pretty exciting pitching duel here. Chris Sale has been pretty crazy of late. His ERA has been improving since his slow start to the season and sits under 3.00 where it is likely to remain all season. Bit of run support would be nice and his win record will definitely read better. Opposing lineups hitting a measly .205 against him, and he is just as good on the road. Lester has been up and down all season even though he has got through 7 innings in his last 2 starts giving up 0 runs. It’s going to come down to the pitchers here and the White Sox have been improving of late all over the park. I’d take Sale over Lester any day. At the $2.01 price it’s a reasonable play.
Suggested Bet
White Sox at $2.01
St Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates (9.15am AEST)
Cardinals ($2.06) -Lackey (7-5, 3.09)
Pirates ($1.80) – Burnett (7-3, 1.99)
Prediction
Pirates. 16 year veteran AJ Burnett is set to play his first all star game in a few days in what looks to be his last season. Saving his best for last perhaps, he will want to prove he deserves to be there. Showing a lot of passion of late on the mound, this season PNC Park has been his zone. An incredible home ERA of 1.28, a lack of run support has made his home record sit at 2-2 though. In his previous meeting with the Cardinals this season going 6 innings giving up only 2 hits. However, with a few injuries the Pirates bats seem to be limping through games and John Lackey will look to finally right the wrongs he has caused on his travels in 2015. A record of 2-3, with an ERA of 4.60 over 8 starts, road Lackey has been average. I think this is where the edge sits with the Pirates, the home field advantage (30-16) and this huge series which is currently tied 1-1. Pittsburgh need to make ground up on the Cards while they can and taking the remaining 2 games of the series would sit them only 2.5 games behind in the NL Central. Amazing considering where they were sitting coming out of May. Pirates need this, and I think they get it done on the shoulders of AJ Burnett as long as he can get through 6 or 7 innings himself.
Suggested Bet
Pirates at $1.80
For records. Best Bet 2 Units, Next Best 1 Unit, Multi 0.5 Units (unless stated otherwise)
Hope you all have a good week with your MLB betting. Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
