Welcome to preview of what looks to be the biggest day of baseball in 2015. 4 huge games, and I think we may see a teams season ended. There is nothing like post season baseball, and so far 2015’s version has not disappointed. The away teams started well, and took key wins. There has been controversy and outstanding solo performances. Cut to the chase, no pun intended, tomorrows Dodgers and Mets games is going to be intense. If there wasn’t already a rivalry, there will be now. Lets get to it.
Tuesday 13th
Best Bet – Cubs at $1.45
Next Best – Astros at $1.70
Multi – Cubs/Mets at $2.24
NLDS
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets (11.35am AEST Live ESPN)
Series Tied 1-1
Dodgers ($2.55) – Anderson (10-9, 3.69)
Mets ($1.55) – Harvey (13-8, 2.71)
This one will be fiery. After Chase Utley’s terrible slide on Sunday, the Mets will be back for retribution at Citi Field. Mets Shortstop Ruben Tejeda had his leg broken on the controversial play and it was a moment that changed the game and may have changed the series. New York were looking comfortable up until then. Utley should of been ruled out, he has since been suspended for 2 games. Little help to the Mets as they dropped game 2.
Matt Harvey will be tasked with this important game, the Dark Knight has been solid at home all year going 8-3 with a 2.23 ERA. When LA visited City Field in July he went 7 strong innings giving up only 2 runs on 6 hits. Brett Anderson, a decent pitcher who gets forgotten about behind Kershaw and Grienke has been solid in 2015. A few rough outings though skews his stats. 7-4 with a 3.07 road ERA. He struggles if his pitch count gets up high early and he does not get through 6 innings too often
Make no bones about it, the Mets are coming out hard in this one. I expect to see some sort of fireworks. I can’t see anything but a Mets win here. Harvey will be pumped up and the Mets have the superior pitcher, bats and bullpen in this game. Considering they should be up 2-0, take them to win and make it 2-1.
Suggested Bet – Mets to win at $1.54
Value Bet – Mets/o5.5 Game Total double at $2.44
St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs (9.05am AEST Live ESPN)
Series Tied 1-1
Cardinals ($2.75) – Wacha (17-7, 3.38)
Cubs ($1.45) – Arrieta (22-6, 1.77)
Arrieta. Do I have to say more ?
The best pitcher in baseball right now is Jake Arrieta. He wasn’t his best against the Pirates in the Wild Card game but he still dominated. His home form is filthy going 9-5 with a 1.97 ERA, Post All Star break overall he is 12-1 with a 0.75 ERA. That one lose coming when the Cubs handed Cole Hamels a no hitter. Michael Wacha, who started the season strong, has come unravelled of late, hitting career high innings pitched. Post All Star break he has gone 7-4 with a 4.01 ERA compared to his pre all star break ERA of 2.93.
The Cubs have some big hitters, and yes while they may strike out a lot they can put up some runs. They won’t need too many to win this one though. You really can’t go against Arrieta at all. Yes he is due for a poor game. That’s baseball, but I won’t be counting on it happening here. Wrigley field will be loud and the young Cubbies will be keen to wrap up the series at home and avoid a trip back to St Louis. They take this one.
Suggested Bet – Cubs at $1.45
ALDS
Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros (4.05am AEST Live ESPN)
Astros lead 2-1
Royals ($2.14) – Ventura (13-8, 4.08)
Astros ($1.74) – Mc Cullers (6-7, 3.22)
A series that arguably should of been over. Houston had game 2 in their hands and let it slide away. Game 1 starter Ventura gets another chance on short rest and it’s a very interesting choice considering he wasn’t particularly good in Game 1.
Yordano Ventura, as I mentioned in the Game 1 preview can be erratic and the Astros got to him early. He lasted only 2 innings giving up 3 runs. His road form this year has been worrying, 6-3 with a 4.30 ERA. Lance Mc Cullers may be the man to lead the Astros to the ALDS. In 10 starts his home work is stellar. Going 4-1 with a 1.86 ERA. In his 1 start against KC this year he went 7 strong innings giving up 1 run on 4 hits.
The Royals weakness, starting pitching looks to be the downfall of them in 2015. The Astros will score a few runs this game and that’s why I find it hard to side with KC. McCullers is solid at home and the price on offer for them to close out the series is good.
Suggested Bet – Astros at $1.74
Other Bet – First Home Run Astros $2.19 (Sportsbet)
Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers (7.05am AEST Live ESPN)
Rangers lead 2-1
Blue Jays – Dickey (11-11, 3.91)
Rangers – Holland (4-3, 4.91)
Toronto fought back after going down 2-0 in the series with a great win in game 3. They should of won by more, however their ability to convert with runners in scoring position was poor. It’s a very tough game to predict and its looks like the Rangers last real chance to win the series. A date with Price in game 5 could be on the cards , even though thye go the better of him in game 1.
RA Dickey, the veteran gets the nod as the Jays 4th pitcher. It has to be a worry that his road stuff has been ordinary all season going 2-8 over 16 starts with a 4.83 ERA. Of even greater concern would be the Rangers faith in Derek Holland, who has been struggling. His work at home isn’t great, 5.12 ERA over 7 starts.
I just can’t touch this game and If I had too I would say play the overs in the run totals. If it’s going to be a slug fest then the Jays have the advantage. Just watch this one. I feel the Jays may just force a game 5 though.
Suggested Bet – None
All prices quoted via Crownbet at time of writing.
For records. Best Bet 2 Units, Next Best 1 Unit, Multi 0.5 Units (unless stated otherwise)
Hope you all have a good week with your MLB betting. Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
