Well the Wild Card games are done and dusted and the Astros and Cubbies move on as predicted. The Cubs, after beating the 2nd best team in baseball get a date with the best team in baseball, the St Louis Cardinals. In what I think is a series that come down to one factor. See the bottom of this post. The other young team in the playoffs the Astros get a meeting with the Royals, anything can happen in this series. Anyway, on to Friday’s action and lets continue our postseason success.
Friday 9th
Best Bet – Jays -1.5 at $1.90
ALDS
Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays (6.35am AEST Live ESPN)
Rangers ($2.98) – Gallardo (13-11, 3.42)
Blue Jays ($1.41) – Price (18-5, 2.45)
The Toronto Blue Jays finally get themselves back to the post season after too long a time away from October baseball. Granted the dominating years of the AL East, Yankees and Red Sox has made it rather tough. This game is the reason they made the move for David Price. Game 1 in a series is designed for him and this match up really leans their way.
On the mound for the Rangers will be crafty right hander Yovani Gallardo who has been rather solid this year. 5-5 with a 3.31 road ERA, his work against the Jays was outstanding. 2-0 over 2 starts, 0 earned runs and only 6 hits in 13 innings of work. Nice huh? David Price though is a match for anyone. 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA in the Rogers Centre, he has been dominate since his move from Detroit.
While this series is bound to throw up runs and the lines will seem to be set around 8 or so, I think this one goes under. The Rangers bullpen has had a lot of work of late and I expect them to get worked hard this series. That’s going to play well into the hands of the Jays. If Price can go 7 innings and I think he will the Jays win this well. No doubt the Rangers have some bats to cause damage but this game may be one game too soon to hop on that train of thought. The Price is right, take the jays and get in the queue to collect.
Suggested Bet – Jays to win at $1.41
Value Bet – Jays -1.5 at $1.90
Safe Bet – Jays o3.5 runs Team Total at $1.46
Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals (10.35am AEST Live ESPN)
Astros ($2.20) – Mc Hugh (19-7, 3.89)
Royals ($1.70) – Ventura (13-8, 4.08)
After a convincing win in the AL Wild Card the Astros get tasked with facing the best team in the AL in the Royals, last season’s Cinderella story. I’m a little surprised that the erratic Ventura is given the nod to start game 1 as I feel Cueto would be better served and the chance to pitch him twice.
Ventura has been better at home then away but he is by no means a dominate Ace that will shut a team down. While he throws hard and can work the plate his erratic style can negate his plus side. At home he is decent. 7-5 over 14 starts with a 3.84 ERA. He did face the Astros once this year and went 7 innings giving up 6 hits and 1 run. Colin Mc Hugh has been a surprise packet for the Astros. He has been solid but his road work has been iffy. 7-4 with a 4.05 ERA away from home, however those numbers are skewed as he has had a few really rough outings. Otherwise consistent, either way he is a solid all round arm, and should get through at least 6 innings.
Kaufman stadium is built for an athletic outfield and that where the Royals tend to have an advantage over most teams. Not the case against the Astros who can match them in that department and even better in the infield. Teams that win the wild card game tend to get on a roll, the Astros were superb in the Bronx, and I think they hit well enough here to at least make the Royals work for it. Bookies have stacked the odds against them but I think they take this.
Suggested Bet – Astros at $2.20
Value Bet – Astros/o5.5 at $3.00
Safe Bet – o5.5 runs at $1.38
Post Season Predictions
St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs
After a dominate performance from Arietta in Pittsburgh he looks to be the key to this series against the always consistent St Louis Cardinals. If he can make 2 starts this series I feel the Cubs take it. I said last week that I can’t see them losing a game he starts in all post season and I stand by it. While the Cards are always solid they have some injury concerns, and a pitching staff that looks tired. Lackey is solid at home and should take game 1, but what happens when Arietta starts. If they somehow start him on minimum rest and get 2 games out of him they win this. Considering it’s do or die and the Cubs will do whatever they can to progress, it’s likely to happen.
Cubs in 5
Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros
What a performance from Keuchel against the Yankees, we know he will start game 3 of this series in Houston where he has won 15 games and that looks a win. If they can take one of the first 2, which I feel they can they will be in driver’s seat. Houston are a power team and hit a lot of home runs, it sort on nullifies the strong Royals fielding. Kansas have a better bullpen even with Holland out and after 2 games that can really show its strength. Think Astros may just come out hitting from the get go and overcome the Royals.
Astros in 4
Post Season Plays
Jays and Astros to win series at $3.13
Series betting plays will be updated via Twitter once available.
All prices quoted via Crownbet at time of writing.
For records. Best Bet 2 Units, Next Best 1 Unit, Multi 0.5 Units (unless stated otherwise)
Hope you all have a good week with your MLB betting. Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
