Well that does it, the 2015 regular season has come to an end. It’s down to 10 teams now, soon to be 8 after the upcoming Wild Card games. It was a frantic final day of the season with the Angels and Astros both going for that last AL spot. With the Rangers beating the Angels to win the AL west and with that handing the Astros a game against the Yankees. From a punting perspective the last week was quiet with limited plays and those that we did we just missed out. October is sure to through up some surprises and as usual a lot of drama. Last season we saw the 2 wild card winners push all the way to the World Series and they are at great prices to win their respective divisions. The Cardinals will await the winner of the Pirates and Cubs. While the Royals who managed to hang on to the best record in the AL will host the winner of the Astros and Yankees. What looks to be the best series however lies with the Rangers and the Jays. While the most intriguing in terms of pitching matchups has to be between the Dodgers and the Mets. Before those series get started however, Yankee Stadium and PNC Park will be host to the wild card games and that’s where we kick this off.
Wednesday 7th
AL Wild Card
Houston Astros vs New York Yankees (11.00am AEST Live ESPN)
Astros ($1.86) – Keuchel (20-8, 2.48)
Yankees ($1.98) – Tanaka (12-7, 3.51)
The New York Yankees are coming off a poor end to the season winning only 1 of their last 7 and going 15-17 since the start of September. However anything can happen in a one game playoff but they have not been their sharpest that’s for sure. The Astros also have been pretty poor in the last month of action just managing to hold onto the Wild card spot after giving away the AL West a few weeks back. Since September they have had the worst ERA in all of baseball at 5.63.
Cy Young candidate Dallas Keuchel has had an amazing season yet his road form has been his one weakness. Going 5-8 with a 3.77 ERA away from Minute Maid Park. What does offset that record in this particular game is his performances against the Yankees this season were solid. Going 16 innings over 2 starts giving up 0 earned runs an only 9 hits. Masahiro Tanaka on the other hand got to face the Astros once, going only 5 innings giving up 6 earned runs, 7 hits and 3 of them being home runs. His last home start against Boston was iffy and his home line reads 7-4 with a 3.71 ERA. Solid numbers none the less.
The Astros are a young exciting team and this bunch will get many more post season appearances under their belts, Correa and Altuve lead the line and Carter, Gomez, Springer add depth to a pretty scary line up with serious power. I like them to be able to get to Tanaka but I feel they have a weakness if their bullpen is called into action too early. The Yankees have the edge with the bullpen in Betances and Miller and if it’s a tight game it may be hard for the Astros to score late. If Keuchel, coming off a career short 3 days rest, can get through the Yankees like he did this season then it should mean a meeting with the Royals in the ALDS. Are the old legs of the Yankees just tiring?
Suggested Bet – Astros at $1.87
Value Bet – Astros/o2.5 first 5 innings at $2.94
Safe Bet – o5.5 Total Runs at $1.46
Thursday 8th
NL Wild Card
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates (11.00am AEST Live ESPN)
Cubs ($1.73) – Arrieta (22-6, 1.77)
Pirates ($2.16) – Cole (19-8, 2.60)
It’s a shame that one of these team has to bow out, the 2nd and 3rd best records in the MLB. Pittsburgh managed to get the home field edge with a win on the last day of the season while the Cubs did happen to take the season series between these Central division rivals 11 to 8.
What’s left to be said about Jake Arrieta, potential NL Cy Young winner, he has been insanely good of late and is almost unhittable. Post all star break he has gone 12-1 with a ridiculous ERA of 0.75. You read that correct, 0.75. In 5 starts against Pittsburgh this season he went 3-1 with that same 0.75 ERA. Pirates batting .151 against him. Pittsburgh have a pretty decent arm also, the solid Gerrit Cole who went 9-3 with a 2.83 ERA at home this year. His performances against the Cubs also solid going 2-1 with a 2.13 ERA over 4 starts. Including 32 K’s over 25 innings.
It’s very hard to see Pittsburgh getting to Jake Arrieta. Even though regular season form means nothing when it comes to a Wild Card game, look at Pittsburgh vs Bumgarner last season and vs Cueto in 2013. Having said that, unless they can get his pitch count up high early it looks a tall order. Gerrit Cole will need to match Arrieta inning for inning and maybe then the Pirates can win it against the Cubs bullpen. It’s a shame that the 2nd best team in the MLB looks to go out in the Wild card game for the 2nd consecutive year. What they achieve on their payroll is commendable and if they somehow get through this game I think they win the NL with the depth they have. This Cubbies team looked a few years ahead of a finish product but the have proven us all wrong. With a young core, much like the Astros they will be in the post season picture for years to come. If it was a series I would say the Pirates, it’s not though it’s one game. Heart is saying Pittsburgh however the head says the Cubs. Arrieta is just way too good right now.
Suggested Bet – Cubs at $1.77
Value Bet – Cubs/u7.5 Game Total at $2.50
Safe Bet – u7.5 Total Runs at $1.39
Wild Card Best Bet
o5.5 Yankees/Astros into u7.5 Pirates/Cubs at $2.03
Post Season Predictions
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets
In what is really shaping up to be an intriguing pitching duel with the Dodgers 2 aces in Kershaw and Grienke vs the Mets whole pitching staff. They key to this series will be Game 3 in New York where the Dodgers will have to send out Wood or Anderson against Matt Harvey and he has been immense at home and you can pencil that in as a Mets win. The Mets have limped across the finishing line, although they have the perfect answers to the Dodgers Aces. They could likely throw veteran Colon on the mound if things get rough for their starters and that’s a nice backup plan. Start of the season I would of said Dodgers, but the Mets bats are a lot better now and with Cespedes avoiding any injury they look dangerous.
Mets in 5
Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers
We all know about the Blue Jays power bats, however the Rangers have been tremendous in all departments since the All Star break and with the addition of Cole Hamels now have that Ace they need for a post season run. The Jays have the fantastic David Price, and Stroman coming back has been a huge plus so their staff is solid also. Im picking the winner of this series to win the AL, that’s the easy part. One thing I know for sure is we should see plenty of runs, so a dominate start from any pitcher will be key. Think it goes to 5 games therefore the Price pitching twice factor comes into play.
Jays in 5
Post Season Plays
Blue Jays $2.50 to win AL (2u)
Saver on Rangers $6.00 to win AL (1u)
Cubs $7.00 to win NL (1u)
Mets $4.25 to win NL (1u)
Series betting plays will be updated via Twitter once available.
All prices quoted via Crownbet at time of writing.
For records. Best Bet 2 Units, Next Best 1 Unit, Multi 0.5 Units (unless stated otherwise)
Hope you all have a good week with your MLB betting. Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
