Both Championship series are at the crucial game 3, with Kansas looking to wrap it up with a sweep at home while the San Francisco and St Louis series looking like it’s going to go on for a bit longer. Since the amazing come from behind wild card win over the A’s, the Royals are rolling and look a sure thing to make it through to the World Series. Can Baltimore stop them ? Will St Louis stop hitting home runs ? We will find out over the coming few days.
Wednesday 15th
National League Championship Series
Game 3
St Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants (7am AEST Live on ESPN)
Cardinals ($2.08) – John Lackey
Orioles ($1.78) – Tim Hudson
Over/Under – Over 7.0 ($1.96) Under 7.0 ($1.88)
Series Tied 1-1
Prediction
Giants
After tying the series with a walk off home run the Cardinals look to jump ahead as they visit San Francisco with veteran pitcher John Lackey (14-10, 3.82 ERA) squaring off against another veteran in Tim Hudson (9-13, 3.57 ERA). It’s been the long ball that has got the Cardinals their results this post season which is surprisingly similar to the Royals, neither team could buy one in the regular season. The Giants have been able to get key hits all post season and have been supported by great pitching. Expecting another tight game which has been the story for most NL games.
Hudson had a terrible close to the regular season, but he pitched well against the Nationals in the NLDS, allowing one earned run on seven hits over 7 innings. In his one outing against the Cardinals this season he was sensational pitching 7 innings giving up only 3 hits and 0 runs.
Lackey too was superb in his first post season appearance with the Cardinals, going 7 innings giving up 5 hits on only 1 run. He really does save his best stuff for this time of the season and lifts the intensity of his whole team. One big lose for the Cardinals though is All Star catcher Yadier Molina in doubt after leaving game 2. With backup Cruz likely to play, the Giants may look to steal and get much more of a lead off when on base.
This game looks to have all the hall marks of a tight game, unless Matt Carpenter unleashes another post season bomb of course. The under 7.0 runs line is what I’m looking at as a play for this game. 2 veteran pitches who are coming off solid post season starts. Think they get through a few innings with no runs, if the bullpens can hold it then we may see very few runs at all. Picking the winner, I’d side with Giants though.
Suggested Bet
Under 7.0 runs at $1.88
American League Championship Series
Game 3
Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals (11am AEST Live on ESPN)
Orioles ($1.85) – Wei-Yen Chen
Royals ($2.00) – Jeremy Guthrie
Over/Under – Over 7.5 ($1.96) Under 7.0 ($1.88)
Royals lead series 2-0
Prediction
Royals
With a rained out game 3 that was scheduled for Tuesday, the Orioles will look to get back in this series on Wednesday with Chen (16-6, 3.54 ERA) up against Guthrie (13-11, 4.13 ERA). I’d say that Baltimore has the edge in this pitching matchup, and make no bones about it, it’s a must win game. They have not actually played that bad Baltimore. They have got back into both games when they were trailing and have had men in scoring positions with a chance to take the lead. The Royals are just hitting when they need too. In extra innings, in the 9th. They get the runs when it matters. Apart from that, I feel the series has been tight. However there is something about this Kansas team. Almost like a World Series is just destiny. Sure the Orioles will do their best to derail that train.
Guthrie will pitch his first game of the post season, the 35yr veteran was 0-1 in 2 starts, pitching 15 innings giving up 6 runs on 14 hits against the Orioles this season. Baltimore will have to get to him early as that when he tends to be his most vulnerable.
Chen had a solid season, even though his start against Detroit in the ALDS wasn’t so sharp, giving up 5 earned runs in over 3 innings. Lucky enough he was bailed out by some tremendous offense. In his 2 starts against the Royals this year he went 1-0 giving up 3 earned runs on 16 hits in 12 innings. Worryingly though this Royals line up BAA is .318 against him for his career.
Like the first 2 games of the series I expect it to be close with runs scored. If the Royals can keep on rolling they may find themselves one game away from a World Series spot. Interestingly enough though, with the postponement of Tuesdays game it will allow both teams to pitch their ace (Shields and Tillman) if they want for game 4. Given the chance I think the Royals will take that risk and pitch Shields in game 4 if they win this. It’s a toss of a coin for who I’ll take to win game 3 though, as lady luck seems to be siding with the Royals as will I. The over 7.5 runs seems like the play.
Suggested Bet
Over 7.5 runs at $1.96
All Prices Quoted via Sportsbet at time of writing unless stated otherwise.
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. Feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
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All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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