So we are down to the final 4 teams. I wouldn’t be the first person to tell you how surprised they are that these are the teams fighting it out. The Orioles and Cardinals you can make a case for however not many expected both wild card teams to push past the Angels and Nationals respectively. All 4 teams where the underdogs in their respective series and they combined for an amazing 12-2 record against the favourites. There was plenty of runs early on in the post season games but it has really turned into pitching duels. The Nationals had great pitching but couldn’t get any runs, the Giants equally had top quality pitching but got the hits when needed. In the other National League series the Cardinals came back to haunt Kershaw again as they were also helped out by some brilliant pitching. They say pitching wins World Series, however you have to still score runs, Orioles do that and they still remain my pick to win the whole thing. Going to be hard to push past the Royals as they are just on a roll, however I think they will just scrape past.
Saturday 11th
American League Championship Series
Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles (11am AEST Live on ESPN)
Royals ($2.10) – James Shields
Orioles ($1.77) – Chris Tillman
Over/Under – Over 7.0 ($1.82) Under 7.0 ($2.03)
Prediction
Orioles
After a few days rest for both teams as they managed to win their series 3-0 the ALCS starts up in front of what will be a loud Camden Yards. With the Royals giving free agent to be James Shields (14-8, 3.21 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) the start up against Chris Tillman (13-6, 3.34 ERA, 1.23 WHIP). Absolutely love what we could see this series. The teams could not be any different offensively. The Royals rely on small-ball, finishing dead last in baseball in home runs, but first in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Orioles are exactly the opposite, first in home runs and last in steals. The Royals defence has been superb this post season with Aoki standing out. Orioles too are very good in that department with Adam Jones and Nick Markakis both great in the outfield. Pitching setup pretty similar with these teams both great bullpens however the way Buck Showalter works his relief pitching matchups gives the O’s the edge. The Royals did win the season series 4-3 but they have not met since mid May and the Orioles didn’t really get going to after the All Star Game. There’s no magic formula to winning in the postseason regardless of what we try to work out. So I’ll go with the team that was superior in the regular season, and that’s the Orioles. Their power and their huge edge in the dugout mean a trip to the World Series for the first time since 1983. Going to be a few tight games, however I’m taking Orioles to win the series in 6. Not to mention the Delmon Young factor. The lucky charm for post season baseball
Chris Tillman is fast becoming one of my favourite pitchers and has been in sizzling form since the start of August with only 1 loss in that time and Baltimore winning 11 of those 12 total games. He did give up a pair of homers in Game 1 of the ALDS, but the Orioles’ bats provided more than enough offense to power him to a victory over Detroit. The 26-year-old’s lone shutout during the regular season came against Kansas City back in May. He has a .216 BAA against this Royals line up. His ERA when at home sits at 2.54
James Shields hasn’t had his best stuff this post season but his team have done enough to get the job done. With high pitch counts early on in both of those games he will be hoping that trend does not continue. Well, he couldn’t be coming up against a better team for him to rectify that, he is 11-7 against the O’s in his career and went 2-0 this season. He has career .232 BAA against this line up. Also solid on the road with a 2.97 ERA this season.
I feel Kansas will need to take advantage of a Shields start to win the series, having said that the Orioles must do the same with Tillman pitching at home. The powerful batting line up of the O’s over the course of the series is likely to be too much for Kansas, Cruz and Jones are hitting well and from top to bottom it’s just scary. They beat Scherzer, Verlander and Price. They can beat anyone and they are very likely to beat Shields. Think we could see runs as we so often do in Baltimore games so the Over 7.0 Runs would be the way to lean for total markets. When the Orioles score 4 runs or more they tend to win.
Suggested Bet
Orioles at $1.77
Other Bets
Orioles to win series at $1.75
All Prices Quoted via Sportsbet at time of writing unless stated otherwise.
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. Feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
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All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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