The busy weekend of playoff baseball is over and 2 teams have already stamped their pass into the Championship series, with Baltimore sweeping the Tigers and the Royals pushing aside the Angels also in 3 games. The Nationals are on the brink of elimination as well, which makes you wonder if those extra days off actually helped of hindered them. Almost every game so far has been tense, plenty of extra innings games highlighted by the 18 inning epic between the Nats and the Giants. A few more weeks of this still left though and onto tomorrow’s action.
Tuesday 7th
National League Division Series
Game 3 (Tied 1-1)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs St Louis Cardinals (6am AEST Live on ESPN)
Dodgers ($1.94) – Hyin-Jin Ryu
Cardinals ($1.90) – John Lackey
Over/Under – Over 7.5 ($2.05) Under 7.5 ($1.80)
Prediction
Cardinals
With the series tied 1-1 the Dodgers lead by Ryu (14-7, 3.38 ERA) visit John Lackey (14-10, 3.82 ERA) and the Cardinals. Things have got pretty hot between these teams over the last 2 games with Puig and the Dodgers getting upset over being pitched at inside the plate. It’s part of the game and if intimidation is one of those things you have to do to win ball games, then so be it. A huge comeback in Game 1 against Kershaw saw Matt Carpenter continue is hot streak against the Dodgers. He punished them last year and he is doing it again.
Ryu is fresh off a short trip to the DL, missing his last 2 scheduled starts of the regular season with shoulder issues. He has been great on the road this season though with a 10-4 record, 3.03 ERA and .236 BAA in 86 innings. His last start against the Cardinals he went 7 innings giving up 3 runs on 9 hits, however was handed the lose as the Dodgers bats couldn’t help him out in a 3-1 game. In only 34 at bats this St Louis line up is hitting .294 against him. Small sample size though, so not really a huge indication of how they handle him.
John Lackey has been an average pitcher since his move from Boston. However his number when pitching in Busch stadium are much better. In his 5 starts there, St Louis is yet to lose and has 2.38 ERA. I am not a huge admirer of Lackey, however he is a very experienced pitcher and has been involved in big games before.
A difficult match up to call as it’s always interesting to see pitchers 1st start after coming off the DL, what to expect from Ryu ? Likely to be another tight game, and if the Cardinals can at least get 6 or 7 solid innings from Lackey I do like them to win this.
Suggested Bet
Cardinals at $1.90
Other Bets
Cardinals/Under 7.5 at $3.12
Game 3 (Giants lead 2-0)
Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants (8am AEST Live on ESPN2)
Nationals ($2.22) – Doug Fister
Giants ($1.70) – Madison Bumgarner
Over/Under – Over 6 ($1.80) Under 6 ($2.05)
Prediction
Giants
San Francisco Giants look to wrap up the series at home with their ace Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA) up against the Nationals Doug Fister (16-6, 2.41 ERA). The Giants just seem to have something special about them when it comes to post season baseball, and the highly fancied Nationals find themselves on the verge of elimination, unable to get anything going. Both teams have pitched amazing games so far and the National really wasted Zimmermanns stellar outing taking him out of the game with only 1 out needed to tie the series. Giants tied the game up with one out left and won in 18 innings. That decision could cost them the whole season. Take nothing away from the Giants that have been excellent , they are getting the hits when it matters and have had solid pitching from the bullpen.
Doug Fister will have to be at his best here, as every and any run his team mates can muster he will have to protect. He has had a career best season highlight by an ERA of 2.41 and a stingy WHIP of 1.08. In his 2 starts against the Giants this year he gave up 4 earned runs on 15 hits and 2 walks in 13 innings. At a minimum he must replicate that sort of outing.
Madsion Bumgarner was incredible in the NL wild card game, pitching 9 innings with 10 strikeouts. Incredibly he seems to be a better pitcher on the road then at home. In 15 starts at home he is 7-6 with an ERA of 4.03. Compared to 11-4 in 18 starts and an ERA of 2.22 on the road. Is he likely to back up that last outing with a similar performance ?
There seems to be an aura around this Giants team and it seems like fate, as they continue an impressive streak of post season wins. If I look at the stats I would side with the Nationals especially at the price of $2.22. However you just get the sense that the Giants will somehow find a way to win in a tight game. Will this be the 3rd sweep of the 4 Divisional series ? A game i’m not personally keen to bet into. The First 5 inning tie/result play looks the value though. Tie/Nats at $9 or Tie/Giants 7.50. Get the feeling it will be close either way.
Suggested Bet
Either team to win by 1 run at $2.54
All Prices Quoted via Sportsbet at time of writing unless stated otherwise.
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. Feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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