Welcome back to a preview of the MLB Postseason action. There is nothing like the atmosphere and drama of the MLB Playoffs, and we have already had it bucket loads with 2 exciting Wild Card games and the Division Series getting underway. My early thoughts on it all ? The Giants wasted a huge chance in the game 1 of the Cubs series with Cueto making a solid start and them unable to get on the board. Even with Bumgarner in line for the Game 3 start I’m not sure they can push it past 4 games. On the other side of the NL the Dodgers held on with a 5 out save from Kenley Jansen to take game 1 away from home against the Nats. With another Kershaw start in there, I looks a tough job for Washington. The American league Division series could all be over and I share my thoughts below. It is Baseball after all and one pitch can change it all. Let’s try and keep the good postseason going though.
Monday 10th
Plays
Jays -1.5 $2.02 (1u)
O5.5 1st 5 Innings Indians/Sox $1.95 (0.5u)
Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Indians (7.00am AEST Live on ESPN)
Red Sox ($1.71) – Buchholz (8-10, 4.78 ERA)
Indians ($2.18) – Tomlin (13-9, 4.40 ERA)
Indians lead series 2-0
Prediction
Boston come down to a must win game after losing the first 2 of the best of 5 series on the road in Cleveland. Both performances from the Indians were lights out, some amazing relief pitching in game 1 from Andrew Miller while Corey Kluber steered them to a shutout win in the 2nd. However Clevelands bats have been pretty good. With 19 hits over the 2 games and 4 home runs. Being a hitting friendly ballpark and the pitchers who are starting I’m sure we will see a fair few runs in this one.
Clay Buchholz gets the start in a must win game, something that I didn’t think you would here after the last few seasons he has had. Since his return from a bullpen stint he had gone 3-0 over 5 starts and managed to lower his ERA a touch. He has the experience, though I think his best days are well behind him. 2-7 at Fenway in 2016 with a 5.60 ERA and .272 BAA. This game calls for an Ace and Clay is not the answer.
Josh Tomlin will get the nod for the Indians as they look to wrap up the ALDS. 8-4 with a 4.32 road ERA. His work against the Sox back in August was good, going7 strong innings giving up 3 runs. If they can get 6 innings out of Tomlin I really like the Indians to take this. With that bullpen the way Miller and Allen have pitched a lead after 7 likely gets the job done.
With 2 pitchers that have been prone to throw up crooked numbers too often, I have my eye set on the Overs on the run total for any play. The first 5 innings total is worth looking at with o5.5 at $1.95, the Total set at 9.5 for $1.84. With the strength of the bullpens, if we are going over, we are getting the runs early. If you are a Money Line bettor I think the value is with the Indians as it really as a coin flip. They have momentum, however the Sox have a solid lineup and on their day if they score, they are scoring big. I predict the Sox to win it if I had to but I wouldn’t be touching the ML here.
Suggested Bet
Over 5.5 Runs First 5 innings $1.95
Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers (10.30am AEST Live on ESPN)
Blue Jays ($1.50) – Sanchez (15-2, 3.00 ERA)
Rangers ($2.66) – Lewis (6-5, 3.71 ERA)
Jays lead series 2-0
Prediction
When you have the momentum its very tough to get stopped. As often happens when a team wins a Wild Card game in dramatic fashion they tend to steam roll through the Division Series. That certainly has looked the case for the Jays in this series as a huge 10-1 win in game 1 was followed by a grinded out 5-3 victory in game 2. Toronto’s ability to hit the long ball is once again the key for them and at the intimidating Rogers Centre, this game will be full of fireworks.
Arguably Toronto’s bets starter in 2016, Aaron Sanchez gets the nod. 15-2 record over 30 starts with a solid 3.00 ERA is very impressive for someone who has come on leaps and bounds already in such a young career. His work at home was solid, 6-1 with a 3.74 ERA giving up only 8 HR’s in 13 starts.
With their 2016 season on the line and using their 2 aces in Hamels and Darvish the Rangers will throw the solid Colby Lewis on the mound. In 9 roads starts he went 4-2 with a nice 2.75 ERA, and a .198 BAA. He is going have to go deep I feel for the Rangers to get something out of this. Going only 6 innings once in his last 5 starts is he due ? or just tired. An injury late in the season has done Lewis no favours with his ERA rising, the veteran may be on his last legs. He has however had some solid starts against the Jays, giving up 3 runs over 7 innings at the Rogers Centre earlier this year.
Two ways the Jays can win this, Sanchez holds his own as he has all season, or the Jays bats light up the Rogers Centre as they have all season. For the Rangers to win I feel like they are counting solely on Lewis to push 6-7 strong innings. I have to side with the Jays as I have taken to make a solid run if they got past the Wild Card. Not much value on the ML, I’m siding with the Run Line. Texas remind me of the Angels from a few season back, they won 98 games and got pushed aside in the post season with ease. Can’t stop a freight train with a full head of steam. Jays it is.
Suggested Bet
Toronto -1.5 $2.02
All Prices Quoted via Crown Bet at time of writing.
Post Season Record 4-1 +2.26u
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
