After 2 days of Wild Cards games we move on to the Division Series which is a best 5. The Royals snuck past the A’s in extra innings and will face up against the Angels while the Giants cruised past the Pirates thanks to a superb pitching display from Madison Bumgarner and will now face off against the Nationals. Action is surely heating up.
Friday 3rd
American League Division Series
Game 1
Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles (7.30am AEST Live on ESPN2)
Tigers ($1.86) – Max Scherzer
Orioles ($1.98) – Chris Tillman
Over/Under – Over 7.0 ($1.79) Under 7.0 ($2.07)
Prediction
Orioles (flip a coin)
Max Scherzer (18-5, 3.15 ERA) will get things underway for the Tigers as they visit Chris Tillman (13-6, 3.34 ERA) and the Orioles in Camden Yards. This is a very interesting series matchup as the bookies have the Tigers favourites to move on. Yes they have some great starting pitching but they have hardly all had career best seasons. Verlander has dropped off, Price isn’t exactly in top form also. Although in a 5 games series when you can pitch Scherzer, Verlander, Price and Porcello your in with a bloody good shot. The first 3 pitchers for Detroit this series are the last 3 AL CY Young winners. A bullpen that bleeds runs though let’s not forget that, it’s been a huge thorn in their side all year. Led by Martinez and Cabrera they have a very solid top to bottom line up and can score runs. Orioles on the other hand have been playing great baseball and if they can keep the games close their bullpen can do the trick.
Max Scherzer has been Detroit’s best pitcher this season, and as he moves into free agency it could be his last few games with them. In the last 3 season he is 2-0 on 4 starts against Baltimore with an ERA of 4.15. Career wise this Baltimore line up is hitting .278 against him. In his 33 starts this year, Detroit have only lost 9 games.
Chris Tillman has had a fantastic season and has really stood up as the ace on this Orioles team. In only a small sample size these Tigers bats are hitting .236 against. At Home he is 5-5 in 18 starts but his ERA has been superb at 2.51 with batting average against at .224. Since the All Star game he has been one of the best pitchers in the league.
Incredibly hard game to call, and the price on the Orioles is tempting. Think this series goes to 5 games and Baltimore need to take this home opener I feel. With the current post season trend of the runs line going over I’m happy to take the over 7.0 runs at $1.79. Since June when scoring 4 runs or more Baltimore are 43-3. Just gives you an idea of how good their bullpen is. Considering how tight this game could be I wouldn’t be playing the head to head at all. Going to be an incredibly fun series. Taking Orioles to win but you could toss a coin.
Suggested Bet
Over 7.0 Runs at $1.79
Other Bets
End 5th/Final Result double market Tie-Orioles at $9.00
If the game is tied mid way Orioles should get the job done with that bullpen matchup.
Game 2
Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels (11am AEST Live on ESPN)
Royals ($2.51) – Jason Vargas
Angels ($1.56) – Jered Weaver
Over/Under – Over 8 ($2.07) Under 8.0 ($1.79)
Prediction
Angels
Jason Vargas (11-10, 3.71 ERA) will hit the mound for the Royals as they visit LA and come up against Jered Weaver (18-9, 3.59 ERA) and the leads best Angels. Kansas will still be on a high after their fight back win against the A’s in the AL Wild Card game. I feel they may have used a lot of their luck in that game and this Angels team is a completely different kettle of fish. The best home record in the MLB 52-29 with the most runs scored also. Kansas this season have been able to grind out results with the help of a great bullpen and some well timed hits. Would be a great story if they could go further into the post season however I feel LA take this series in 4 games.
Vargas, in 2 starts against LA this season did not register a win nor a lose however in 10 innings pitched has given up 7 earned runs. In his last 5 starts for the year he has registered 3 losses, so he isn’t exactly in great form. Angels batters career wise are hitting .308 against him.
Jered Weaver at home this season in 18 starts is 10-4 with an ERA of 2.68 with a batting average against of only .211. This Royals line up only hitting .243 against him for his career.
Angels will be well rested and led by the sure to be named AL MVP in Mike Trout and the big hitting Pujols this LA line up should get enough runs to win this series. Like LA to win this one and get the series of to a good start.
Suggested Bet
Angles -1.5 at $2.20 if you like to push for value.
Series Betting Markets
San Francisco Giants $2.60 vs Washington National $1.50
Giants are going to need some starting pitching help to push past the Nats here. Bumgarner can’t pitch them all and Hudson isn’t the answer. Nationals are just so solid all round and had the best overall pitching in the league. When you have a pitcher with a 2.85 ERA and 1.09 WHIP who won’t start for you in a post season series you know that’s a strong rotation. Giants have the playoff history and know how to win in these game but I feel it ends here. If I have Nationals to win it all I have to take them in this matchup.
Nats in 4
Kansas City Royals $2.41 vs Los Angeles Angels $1.57
Market seems about right here, Angels too strong. Kansas have the momentum from a big wild card win and they remind me of the Pirates team of 2013. Great story but they run into one of the big boys here. LA starting pitching only concern but they get runs so I’m sticking with them.
Angels in 4
Suggested Bet
Nationals/Angels Multi at $2.35.
All Prices Quoted via Sportsbet at time of writing unless stated otherwise.
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. Feel free to share your opinions on any
games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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