Welcome back to a preview of some MLB action to close out what has been a fantastic weekend of sport. Having said that it had been a tough week with 3 bets getting beaten in the 9th inning and luck just seems to be avoiding us of late. The season is closing down and it would be nice to hit the post season on a roll. St Louis became the first team to mathematically clinch a post season berth, although there will be a few more in the coming days. The NL central race is still alive, however the 5 teams to participate in the NL side of things are all but decided, with the Giants and Nationals now 10 games behind. The AL is interesting with many teams alive in the Wild card race and that’s where we will try and focus the coming week’s plays on, teams still relative. There is some cracking games tomorrow and it will be one of the the bigger betting days this week in terms of quantity of plays. Lets get to it.

Monday 21st

Best Bet –  Blue Jays -1.5 at $2.07
Next Best –  Indians at $1.55
Multi –  Jays and Mets at $2.53
Mega Multi – Pirates, Indians, Jays, Mets  at  $7.47 (0.25u)
Alt Totals Multi –  o5.5 Giants/D-Backs, o6.5 Tigers/Royals, u10.5 Rangers/Mariners at $2.42

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays (3.05am AEST) 

Red Sox ($2.54) – Hill (0-0, -.–)
Blue Jays ($1.54)  –  Buehrle (14-7, 3.66)

Prediction
Blue Jays. Boston are playing much better and still have a chance to finish the season at .500 which would be a success after their state mid way through their 1025 campaign. Although Will be a tough task to get the Win against the Jays away at the Rogers Centre where Toronto are a stunning 48-26. After getting a late 9th inning come from behind win on the Sox will back it up with 35yr old veteran Rich Hill. Making his first start in 6 years he clearly is just an arm to use to get the games done. A career spanning 10 season with mixed relief and starting spots his ERA sits at 4.56. Buehrle coming off some niggles to his shoulder lasted on 5 innings in his last start, after being pounded by these same Red Sox over a week ago. Giving up 5 earned runs in over 3 innings. On the road though, and he has been great at home going 8-1 over 12 starts with a 2.99 ERA. I expect some runs here, likely from both sides, however the Jays should be able to get a couple more. As long as there is no bullpen implosion they hang on to win. Seems like every day you could take the Jays run line play.

Suggested Bet
Blue Jays -1.5 at $2.07 

Chicago White Sox  vs Cleveland Indians (3.05am AEST) 

White Sox ($2.52) – Danks (7-12, 4.56)
Indians ($1.55)  –  Tomlin (5-2, 2.70)

Prediction
Indians. Cleveland have really left it late to live up to pre season expectations, not out of the post season picture just yet, they have been on a pretty solid streak of late making their way back to .500. Its run consistency that halters them as their pitching has been pretty solid, ranking high in most pitching statistics, 3rd in Batting average against and 4th in WHIP. In 6 season starts Josh Tomlin has been going great, 5-2 with a 2.70 ERA. Hard luck loss in his last home start pitching the whole 9 innings and getting no run support. John Danks continues to just pitch at replacement level, nothing spectacular. He has had no luck against the Indians this season in 3 starts going 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA. Indians win this, they need it more.

Suggested Bet
Indians at $1.55 

St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs (4.20am AEST) 

Cardinals ($2.19) – Martinez (13-7, 3.02)
Cubs ($1.71)  –  Lester (10-10, 3.38)

Prediction
Cardinals.  A huge game with the Cubs on a roll they could push within 3 games of the division leading Cardinals. Both pitchers are coming off great starts, it’s a tough game to predict. Martinez is racking up mileage on that arm, but there was no signs of it in his last outing going 8 innings giving up 1 earned run. Arguably his best start of the season. 7-3 with a 2.34 road ERA this season. John Lester has been great this season against the Cardinals going 1-2 with a 1.78 ERA over 4 starts, yet his home form has not been amazing in comparison. Wrigley Field and all that I guess can be explained. There may be something special about this team and in Back To The Future 2 it was prophesised that the Cubs would win the 2015 World Series. While not there yet, this team is the real deal.  It’s really a coin flip this one, and therefore I’d side with the price on offer for St Louis though. Wouldn’t  begrudge anyone siding with the Cubs though. Very key game in the story unfolding in the Central division.

Suggested Bet
Cardinals at $2.19 

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers (6.10am AEST) 

Pirates ($1.92) – Cole (16-8, 2.60)
Dodgers ($1.92)  –  Bolsinger (6-3, 3.13)

Prediction
Pirates. The other team in the NL Central picture the Pirates have been slumping of late even though they picked up a win against Clayton Kershaw in their last outing. Californian native Gerrit Cole returns home, where he has gone 4-0 when pitching in his home state. He has been solid in his last 2 outtings and Pittsburgh need their ace to fire again here. A 2.36 road ERA  and Pittsburgh going 20-9 in his starts this season. Mike Bolsinger gets a chance back in the rotation, his last start was rough going only 3 innings giving up 3 runs on 7 hits.  A very inconsistent pitcher his decent start to the season now seems like a distant memory. Pirates win on the back of Cole and the price is pretty solid I feel. As long as Pittsburgh don’t rest their better players like manager Clint Hurdle can tend to do.

Suggested Bet
Pirates at $1.92 

New York Yankees vs New York Mets (10.10am AEST Live ESPN) 

Yankees ($2.32) – Sabathia (4-9, 4.93)
Mets ($1.64)  –  Harvey (12-7, 2.88)

Prediction
Mets. With speculation over Matt Harvey’s pitch count this is a pretty good timed game to prove he is ok. In front of the national audience against the Yankees. I doubt he goes deep into this game but if he starts well 5 to 6 innings would probably do it. The Mets do have a quality pen so that’s of no concern. With the NL East all but sewn up capping of a series win over cross town rivals would be just icing on the cake.  Harvey’s home form reads 8-2 with a 2.47 ERA, great chance for the series win with this guy on the mound. Arguably not even their Ace. Yankees need to rack up wins as the Jays don’t seem to be dropping too many, the Wild Card me be the only aim now. Veteran arm CC Sabathia has had a rough year with a 4.36 road ERA going 2-6, this isn’t a fun lineup to pitch against. With Cespedes, Duda and Murphy trading home runs day to day this once weak Mets batting lineup has come alive since August, they are a fun team to watch. I don’t usually play Yankees games but being such a big game and me needing to get use to it if they are in the post season I’m pretty keen on the Mets here.

Suggested Bet
Mets at $1.64 

All prices quoted via Crownbet

For records. Best Bet 2 Units, Next Best 1 Unit, Multi 0.5 Units (unless stated otherwise)

Hope you all have a good week with your MLB betting. Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.