After a busy weekend with some huge series ending and some nice mid week match ups it’s probably time to sit down and analyse a few games in better depth to see if we can find an edge.
Thursday 28th
Best Bet
Orioles at $1.89
Next Best
Nationals/Tigers to win $2.46
Tampa Rays vs Baltimore Orioles (9am AEST)
Rays ($1.95) – Smyly
Orioles ($1.89) – Gausman
Over/Under – Over 8.0 ($1.96) Under 8.0 ($1.88)
Prediction
Orioles. Drew Smyly has been much better since making the move from Detroit to join the Rays. Overall though he sits at 8-10 with an ERA of 3.42 on the season. Not one to record many back to back wins he is coming off a 2 hit 9 inning shutout. First year pitcher Gausman looks to have a promising future ahead of him, 7-5 with an ERA of 3.81 isn’t too bad. I love the price given on the Orioles in this match up. Although Smyly got a win in Camden yards early on in the season it wasn’t against this Orioles line up who have been hot for over a month now and running away with the AL East. 36-26 at home is their record and they don’t look like showing any signs of slowing up as the push for the best record in the American League. With a line up packed full of big hitters which leads the league in home runs you know they can get runs at any time. Tampa have been much improved however they do lack some offensive threats and after all they still are a team under .500 no matter which way you look at any positives. After taking the first 2 games of the 4 game series I’m happy to be on them here at the price of $1.89. They can score big so if you are super confident the -1.5 at $2.76 is juicy.
Suggested Bet
Orioles to win at $1.89
Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres (11am AEST)
Brewers ($1.69) – Gallardo
Padres ($2.23) – Despaigne
Over/Under – Over 7.0 ($1.98) Under 7.0 ($1.92)
Prediction
Padres. An odd game to preview one might say but there seems to be some value hanging around here. Padres pitcher Despaigne has been a bit tough to read on his ability, his first 5 starts he was 2-1 with an ERA of 1.31, in his last 6 he has been 1-4 with an ERA of 5.81. Having Petco park the pitchers most friendliest of ball parks as his home field has helped. 2-1 in those 5 starts there. Opposing batters hitting .206 against him. He has kept his team in there or around in all but 1 of those 5 home starts. Gallardo is coming off a pretty miserable last outing where he really struggled to hit the strike zone, although 8-7 on the season with an ERA of 3.38. With not many runs getting scored in Petco park too often the under 7.0 line looks good, I think either way it will be a close one as the Padres continue to improve and try and push to finish the season at .500 which would be a huge achievement for them. Padres currently being 35-28 at home is a great record, so to be at $2.23 against a pitcher who has struggled of late is pretty generous to my eyes.
Suggested Bet
Padres at $2.23
Other Suggested Bets
Nationals ($1.59) and Tigers ($1.55) to win (Both 9am AEST, Yankees/Tigers Live ESPN)
Both starting pitchers Doug Fister and David Price have been in fine form of late. If they keep it going here and can get a little run support they both should be able to pick up the Win. Price has had 4 starts against the Yankees already this season with his team winning 3 of them. Fister is 12-4 on the season and has quietly gone about his business while putting up Cy Young awards winning numbers. At $2.46, looks a good little multi.
All Prices Quoted via Sportsbet at time of writing.
Hope you all have a good week with your MLB betting. Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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