After a successful day of plays making it a clean sweep, we look at Monday’s games if there is any value around and also I share my predictions for the playoff picture and look to see if there is any value in the future markets that are still out there.
Monday 11th
Best Bet – Twins/A’s over 7.5 runs at $1.82
Next Best – Padres/Pirates under 7.5 runs at $1.92
Multi – Best Bet into Tigers at $3.03
Minnesota Twins vs Oakland A’s (6am AEST)
Twins ($2.51) – Hughes
A’s ($1.56) – Hammel
Over/Under – Over 7.5 ($1.82) Under 7.5 ($2.03)
Prediction
A’s. Hammel has been far from impressive since joining the A’s from the Cubs. 1-4 with an ERA of 7.15 since making the move, he has failed to pitch past the 5th inning in the 5 outings. Hughes has been decent this season 11-8 with an ERA of 4.01, his numbers skewed by a few rough outings. His ERA has made a steady climb back over the 4 mark since his season best 3.09 in mid June. Oakland can score runs even though statistics do show a projected drop since former clean-up hitter Cespedes was traded. Minnesota are a decent run scoring team as well, and with 2 pitchers that are not having the best of times at the moment, there should be a few runs. Would be tempted to take A’s -1.5 however I feel that just may be a little risky with Hammel on the mound with the way he is throwing at the moment. Over 7.5 seems a generous line to be fair and that’s the way I would be playing.
Suggested Bet
Over 7.5 runs at $1.82
Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves (Live ESPN 10am AEST)
Nats ($2.00) – Gonzalez
A’s ($1.85) – Wood
Over/Under – Over 7.0 ($1.99) Under 7.0 ($1.86)
Prediction
Nats. A huge series that will shape how the NL East division plays out, both teams don’t want to lose any of these games. First 2 games both effected by rain, Braves just scraping game 1 and with game 2 going late and the Nats grabbing the win. With both pitchers not in the best of form and neither wanting to continue their slump. Gonzalez is 6-8 with an ERA of 4.01 comparable to Wood 7-9 with an ERA of 3.20. Both with only 1 win since the start of June. This matchup really is a coin toss and with the Nationals having the better of the 2 offenses the suggested play would have to read Washington. Over 7.0 runs is also a decent option for those who just want to see runs.
Suggested Bet
Nationals at $2.00
Other Suggested Bets
San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates (3.30am AEST)
I touched on this yesterday the Pirates offense is weak at the moment so they are unlikely to put up too many runs by themselves. Padres All Star Ross, has been solid not losing since July 13th and ground ball specialist Morton has been iffy but up against a Padres batting line up that stinks he should be able to limit the runs. Under 7.0 for the 3rd game in a row for this series is at $1.92. And considering in the 5 meetings this season between the 2 only one game has gone over 7 runs. That will do me.
Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays (3.00am AEST)
Tigers traded for Price to win games when the matter. Every game matters right now for Detroit as the try and fend off the Royals. Price has dominated lately and Buehrle has not been at the level he was early in the season. Already noticed the price (no pun intended) has been backed in an the Tigers are at $1.67 to take this. They should.
Postseason Predictions
AL East
Orioles
Baltimore are looking to run away with this division as the Yankees and slumping Blue Jays are just unable to make up ground. With a potent offense, squad depth and a pitching rotation that is improving they will be hard to track down. $9.00 for them to win the American League seems like a great price.
AL Central
Tigers
Still think Detroit has what it takes to hold off a surging Royals team. This Tigers team is built for October baseball and it would be one of the bigger shocks in recent years if they failed to make it. Royals will give them a run however. Tigers in the postseason are a different team and I like them to go far.
AL West
Angels
As much as it pains me to say it as I have invested in the A’s winning the division (since backed Angels to guarantee profit) This is way too close for me to call and I feel it could go either way. A’s have been the best team in baseball all season but the Angels are still there. With 10 games remaining between the 2, that’s where the division will be won and lost. Angels still $3.00 to win division is pretty good value though.
Wild Card
A’s and Royals
NL East
Nationals
Washington just have the edge on the Braves when it comes to run scoring. Braves are likely to drop a few games just on lack of offensive production alone. Not out of it yet though, just feel Washington are too strong and they will finally live up to the hype that’s been around this group of players for the last few seasons.
NL Central
Brewers
A 3 horse race, I feel the team that has basically lead the whole way should be able to get across the line and win the division. Both Pittsburgh and St Louis are decimated by injuries and this is a key factor in the division race. If the Pirates get McCutchen back quickly they will give the Brewers a real battle for the top. Cardinals have the experience and are a solid team from top to bottom, however the injury to catcher Molina has slowed them down. Either way I feel 3 teams out of this division make the post season for the 2nd season running. Current division markets being Brewers $2.80, Pirates $3.60 and Cardinals $2.50. Take your pick as this will go down to the last few days of the season.
NL West
Dodgers
Another team I had high hopes for early in the season and were at great value to win the division, the Giants just are unable to get ground back on the Dodgers. With 6 games left between the 2, the Giants are going to have to take almost all of them to overtake the Dodgers. Plenty of time left though however I feel San Fran’s batting problems are going to come back to bite them as that early season form will seem like a distant memory.
Wild Card
Pirates and Cardinals.
Would love to hear your guys predictions in the comments below or on twitter
All Prices Quoted via Sportsbet at time of writing.
Hope you all have a good week with your MLB betting. Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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