Welcome back to a small little preview of couple of selected MLB games to close out the working week. It’s been another solid week of plays with only the one off day that we managed to make back pretty quickly. I may start to look at some live in play bets as we are seeing a lot of issues out of the bullpens that may give us some nice prices on a team to bounce back. Any plays as usual will be updated on twitter. One of my more confident plays of the year below, I’m testing my 100% strike rate on 2 Unit plays.
Friday 26th
Best Bet – o8.5 Runs Phillies/Rockies $1.85 (2u)
Other Bets – Cardinals $2.20 (0.5u)
Double – Mets/Yankees -1.5 $3.04 (0.5u)
Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies (3.05am AEST)
Phillies ($1.96) – Velasquez (2-4, 5.98 ERA)
Rockies ($1.88) – Anderson (3-4, 6.00 ERA)
Looking to grab a series sweep and win their 5th on the trot the Rockies are in fine form. The Phillies on the other hand have won only once in their last 10. On the mound for the struggling home team is Vince Velasquez. The numbers don’t lie when it comes to his season, struggling to pitch late into games he has been knocked around a bit giving up 13 runs in his last 3 starts in just over 17 innings. A 7.25 ERA at the bandbox that is Citizens bank ballpark. For the Rox it will be Tyler Anderson who surprisingly has a better home ERA at Coors then away. 6.66 road ERA and .291 BAA. Of the 17 starts between these 2 guys, 14 have hit a total of 9 or over runs. Pretty obvious where im looking to play. I feel like the line should be 9.5 here so have to take the overs on the 8.5 Total line. Only concern would be that eventually these guys are going to have a low scoring game just out of probability alone. Can’t bet around that so going in confident.
Suggested Bet – Over 8.5 Runs $1.85
Los Angeles Dodgers vs St Louis Cardinals (12.10am AEST)
Dodgers ($1.70) – Maeda (3-2, 5.03 ERA)
Cardinals ($2.20) – Wacha (2-1, 2.74 ERA)
Trying to grab the series win on the road the Cardinals will look to the back in form Michael Wacha. One of the more consistent pitchers this season after a few years of injury issues Wacha will look to pitch through till the 7th inning for the first time in 2017. For the Dodgers it will be Kenta Maeda who is having his own little injury problems. Due to this he is unlikely to go too deep into the game even if he starts well. Besides his work in his last start against an anaemic Pirates offense there has not been too much to be impressed with so far. If he gets hit early he tends to get rattled. A 4.07 Home ERA after 4 starts. I just like the price on offer here for the Cards, think they should be a bit closer in price so have to take what I feel is value.
Suggested Bet – Cardinals to win $2.20
Other Games
New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals
Yankees place Tanaka up against a first MLB start for Miguel Almonte. New York are a dangerous team and have the power to get past an inexperienced arm and shaky bullpen. With their Ace on the mound I’m pretty confident Yankees get it done. Yankees are 15-7 at home while the Royals are 7-16 on the road. Factor in the pitching matchups. Yankees to win by a couple.
All Prices Quoted via Crown Bet at time of writing.
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
