Finally Opening Day is upon us, let the 2016 season begin. The main game of the day features the two World Series combatants for last season, this being the first time in MLB history to occur. We also get divisional rivalry with the two best teams in 2015, and the middle game throws up arguably the days best pitching matchup. As always, from a betting perspective it’s wise to take it slow early in the MLB season. There is always shocks early on, eg Aaron Harang having a 0.83 ERA after 5 games in 2014. Or the Tigers starting 11-2 in 2015 and looking invincible. Twitter proclaiming the Red Sox the best team in the league after their opening day 8-0 win over the Phillies. What I’m getting at, it’s a very long season, 162 games. You can expect some surprises early on, the cream will rise to the top eventually. I digress, the wait is over, let’s get too it.
Monday 4th
Best Bet – Royals at $2.02
Multi – Pirates o2.5/Royals and Mets o5.5 at $2.39 (1u)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs St Louis Cardinals (3.00am AEST Live ESPN)
Pirates ($1.91) – Liriano (12-7, 3.38 ERA) 2015
Cardinals ($1.91) – Wainwright (2-1, 1.61 ERA) 2015
Prediction
Pirates. What a way to kick off the 2016 season, an NL Central rivalry with the 2015’s 2 best records going at it, plus the top 2 teams with the most combined wins over the last 3 seasons. Yet neither of them are predicted to win the Central this season. Pittsburgh’s PNC Park was a safe home for the Pirates last season going 53-28. Liriano wasn’t his best at home last season going 4-4 with a 4.44 ERA however in his time in Pittsburgh he has kept the Cardinals batting average against below .200. Adam Wainwright returns healthy after a torn Achilles in 2015 limited him to only 4 starts. If we go back to 2014 he did lose both his starts in PNC Park giving up an average of a hit per inning. Both teams are being dropped straight in the deep end for the start of the season and with the few injury concerns around the Cardinals I’ll have to side with the Pirates to sneak this one in a tight game. Will be interesting to see how the Pirates new look infield on the corners goes with Jaso and Freese, they manage to get on base frequently and with a shift in McCutchen hitting 2nd. The aim may just be to keep the line moving, quantity over quality perhaps.
Suggested Bet – Pirates $1.91
Multi Filler – Pirates o2.5 $1.68
Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays (6.00am AEST Live ESPN2)
Rays ($1.99) – Archer (12-13, 3.23 ERA) 2015
Blue Jays ($1.86) – Stroman (4-0, 1.67 ERA) 2015
Prediction
Rays. The Jays returned to the post season in 2015 breaking US Sports longest post season drought. They start off with a tough series against divisional rivals. The Rays are going to be built on pitching and they don’t get much better then Chris Archer. In 6 starts last season he went 3-2 against the Jays limiting them to a .197 BAA (batting average against). Marcus Stroman missed most of 2015 through injury though his appearance in the post season was all positive. He is a good pitcher however it may take a while to get going with only limited starts over the past few seasons. The Jays have a strong lineup however I like Archer to continue his dominance over them. Either the Jays break out on him or he limits them to next to nothing. Could be one of those days, I’m hoping for the latter.
Suggested Bet – Rays $1.99
Multi Filler – None
Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets (10.30am AEST Live ESPN)
Royals ($2.02) – Volquez (13-9, 3.55 ERA) 2015
Mets ($1.83) – Harvey (13-8, 2.71 ERA) 2015
Prediction
Royals. World Series rematch, with rumours of retaliation from the Royals in regards to Escobar being thrown high at. We could have some sparks. It’s also a pitching rematch with Volquez and Harvey going head to head just like they did last October with the Royals winning both times. Harvey was solid though, as was Volquez. Harvey’s spring training was iffy and news of a blood clot in his bladder is concerning and I’m not sure if he goes more than 5 ininngs in this. Volquez will be coming off 5 days rest and will be primed to continue his win streak over the Mets. The Royals have a frustratingly good lineup that looks certain to get a few runs every time out. They started 2015 with 7 straight wins. They had a 51-30 home record for a reason, while the Mets finished one game above .500 on the road. While I’m really keen on the Mets this season you can’t win them all and the price available on the Royals is decent.
Suggested Bet – Royals $2.02
Multi Filler – Total o5.5 $1.42
All Prices Quoted via Crown Bet at time of writing.
For records. Best Bet 2 Units, Next Best 1 Unit, Multi Units stated
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
