We have finally arrived at the business end of the season. Anything can and anything will happen. We all want to see the Jays and Rangers square off. The Cubs look dead certain to make the World Series, but will they? It’s an even year can the Giants actually do it again? Can the Mets make up for the heartbreak of 2015. It’s going to be a hell of a ride, and every game is full of such emotion it really does feel completely different to the day to day games of the regular season. I have gotten over my break and have thrown a keen eye over the potential matchups. This year really does depend on who gets out of the Wild Cards games. Can see the Giants winning a series against the Cubs but can they get past the Mets? I can see the Jays going all the way but can they get past the Orioles. Some line ups are better in a one off game while some just excel over the course of a 5 game series. Let’s hope I’ve got this right. Here it is. My 2016 MLB Postseason Predictions.
Wednesday 5th
Plays
Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays (11.00am AEST)
Orioles ($2.30) – Tillman (16-6, 3.77 ERA)
Blue Jays ($1.64) – Stroman (9-10, 4.37 ERA)
Prediction
Orioles. Not sure how I work my argument into my reasoning, but why is Marcus Stroman starting this game. I’m not an MLB manager, considering its the Jays most important game of the season (so far) why would you start Stroman. I get it, Happ is coming off a few days rest, but Liriano, surely has the experience. Anyways the Jays have decided to go with Marcus Stroman who has had an okay season. However, 4-3 with a 4.59 home ERA, added to that a 7.04 ERA in 4 starts against the Orioles. 7.04 ERA against the Orioles. The team that the most important game of the season is against. Yes its a one off game and the Jays can bring Liriano or someone else in but still ?. The heart of the AL’s most feared offense (most HR’s) has hit really well against Stroman (Alvarez .375, Davis .308, S.Kim .429, Trumbo .455, Jones .400, Wieters .357) Thats 6 of the 9 Orioles lineup that own Stroman.
Baltimore will throw Chris Tillman on the mound and he has had a very nice bounce back season 8-3, 2.97 Road ERA. If he doesn’t last long they have plenty of strength in the rotation. He has had a hard time at the Rogers Center in the past , a career 7.01 ERA. However I feel he has finally taken the role of the lead man in a rotation and I think he can keep the Jays quiet at least for the first time through the order. Add the bullpen of the Orioles into this they do have a slight advantage especially if they can take the lead.
Rogers Center loves the long ball and the Jays can match the Orioles in that regards with Tulo, Bautista, Encarnacion and Donaldson. Toronto hobbled into the Wild Card and if it wasn’t for a choke on the Detroit Tigers part they wouldn’t be here. Yet alone hosting the Wild Card Game. I can’t see Stroman or Tillman keeping a clean slate, but the bullpen favors the Orioles, It’s a one off and I can’t split them enough for a head to head play. There will be runs… Take the over 8.5.
Suggested Bet
Total Over 8.5 Runs $1.90
Thursday 6th
San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets (11.00am AEST)
Giants ($1.95) – Bumgarner (15-9, 2.74 ERA)
Mets ($1.89) – Syndergaard (14-9,2.60 ERA)
Prediction
Giants. What a great matchup. Can Mad Bum once again show his post season dominance ? I think so. 6-5, with a 3.39 ERA on the road, Madison Bumgarner has once again proved his worth a top of the Giants rotation. We know that he will step up on that mound and rise to the occasion like he has so many times before. My only caveat to that prediction is the completely mediocre San Fran batting lineup.
Noah Syndergaard has been given the nod for the Mets, who were runners up in 2015. His stuff is amazing, and considering his age its scary how could he will be. Yet, he is still prone to some really poor performances. 6-6 with a 2.87 home ERA can he rise up to the occasion. It’s a one off game and the Mets tend to be a “when it rains it pours” kind of team. The offence has improved a lot yet I feel like a lot of those stats are inflated due to the poor NL East.
I just get the feeling if the Mets can’t score early they can’t score at all. This will be a low scoring affair but with the post season professional that is Madison Bumgarner I really can’t look any other way. It pains me to say this and I know I’m upsetting a particular friend of mine but take the Giants.
Suggested Bet
Giants $1.94
WHO WINS IT ALL
American League
This will be a running theme throughout my predictions but I really think the outcome of the Wild Card games will have a huge impact.
Boston vs Cleveland
The clear form team heading into the post season, the Boston Red Sox will look to send Big Papi, David Ortiz off with a bang. Financially for me the Indians is a great result though.
Why Boston – That batting lineup is just crazy, with Mookie Betts, Ortiz, Predoria, Bogaerts, Ramirez, and Bradley Jr. It has danger written all over it. Plus their pitching has actually been impressive of late. The Return of Koji Uehara cannot be understated. They looked as primed as I have ever seen a team heading into the post season.
Why Cleveland – One of the most consistent teams all season, that starting pitching will be the the key. Kluber, Salazar and Bauer will be the 3 main arms in this series. Somehow they have a more experienced lineup plus home field advantage.
Who Wins It – My wallet will be with the Indians in terms of a future bet, however I think the Red Sox get the job done in 4 games. They will just out score Cleveland enough. I expect the games to be close but they just have too much firepower that should see them over the line.
Prediction
Boston
Texas vs Baltimore/Toronto
Either of these potential series has me on the edge of my seat. We all want to see a rematch of the Jays/Rangers ALDS from 2015 and with the history between the two, you know it will be heated.
Why Texas – Consistency. Cole Hamels. Yu Darvish. Picthing generally wins series and there is 3 games at worst taken up by those 2 arms.
Why Baltimore – Home Runs. 47 save conversions from 47 attempts. That’s Baltimore in a nutshell. Get up early and hold on. Do they get past Toronto though.
Why Toronto – This could be last season of this scary lineup, they have the arms they didn’t have in 2015. A sluggish end to the season doesn’t always mean a sluggish October. Look for them to go deep into the month if they advance past Baltimore.
Who Wins It – If Toronto can overcome Baltimore than I feel they move on to the ALDS. However, If Baltimore win the Wild Card game I’d side with Texas. Some teams are built for one off games and some are better equipped for series.
Prediction
Texas
American League Winner
If Orioles win WC – Boston
If Toronto win WC – Toronto
National League
Los Angeles vs Washington
Why Los Angeles – The end of Vin Scully’s time in LA may have a shining light. The relavtive fresh arm of Clayton Kershaw and a line up that can destroy pitches out of the zone. They matchu p well against the AL teams but can they get through the very rough NL.
Why Washington – That starting pitching rotation. Bryce Harper has been asleep since May, isn’t it time he woke up.
Who Wins It – A very intriguing series but one I feel will be easily won by a team with the better manager. Washington get swept or win it all that’s they sort of team they are, I can’t get behind them at all. Those who have followed me all season will know my struggles with the team for the capital.
Prediction
Los Angeles
Chicago vs New York/San Francisco
Why Chicago – The best record in the regular season for a reason. A solid, young, fast, energetic lineup. A rotation that is just so consistent it makes Jake Arietta look standard. One of the best managers in the game. Kris Bryant, Rizzo, Zobrist, Heyward, Fowler. Need I say more.
Why New York – The heartbreak of the 2015 World Series will be in the back of their minds, yet this current version of the squad may not be as strong. They have the pitching. They have the grit but can they get past the Wild Card.
Why San Francisco – It’s an even year. They won it in 2014, 2012 and 2010. Madison Bumgarner will carry them like he has done in the past. Bruce Bochy is an amazing manager in the post season.
Who Wins It – Only two times in the past 25 seasons has the team with the sole possession of the best record won the World Series. The pressure will be on the Cubbies. Teams that strike out less win bigger games. Giants can beat the Cubs in a series but I feel like the Mets can’t.
Prediction
???
National League Winner
If Giants win WC – Dodgers
If Mets win WC – Cubs
World Series Prediction
I can make a case for any team winning (aside from the Nats, don’t talk to me about the bloody Nats), but I feel as if there will be a bit of romance about this one. A relative fresh arm for the best pitcher in baseball could be the difference, hence I feel like the Dodgers can win the NL. The most consistent and annoying offense in baseball comes from the American League, be it the Red Sox or the Jays.
Winner
Los Angeles Dodgers (Vin Scully to go out a very happy man)
Post Season Plays
Red Sox/Dodgers series winners @ $2.46 (2u)
Dodgers to win NL $4.75 (1u) – Can’t see Nats beating them so a matchup with Cubs/Giants.
Jays to win AL $7.00 (0.5u) – get past Orioles that price looks good.
Dodgers to win WS $8.00 (0.5u)
Red Sox to win WS $6.50 (0.5u)
It’s the MLB Postseason, anything can happen and anyone can win. These are my predictions, if you see something you see value in I encourage you to side with it.
Best of Luck, this is going to be fun.
All Prices Quoted via Crown Bet at time of writing.
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
