Welcome to the Round 23 AFL preview. The final round of the home and away season is poised to be a heart stopper for some club supporters, as there are up to five or six encounters that will shape the ladder. Collingwood faces a must win game against Hawthorn; Fremantle and Port Adelaide will compete for the final top four position; Richmond needs a win against the ladder leading Swans; Adelaide require a likely percentage boosting victory against St Kilda, while West Coast must beat the Suns and rely upon favourable results involving many of the teams above. There is a number of different scenarios that could occur which makes this week the most fascinating of the season thus far. It is the perfect lead in to what is set to be a blockbuster first finals week, although the punters are going to have to dig deep for any decent value with some predictable results expected.
BEST BET
Geelong to win 1-39 @ $2.45
COLLINGWOOD ($9.50) VS HAWTHORN ($1.07)
AT THE MCG, FRIDAY 29/08, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R14 2014 Hawthorn 17.13 (115) dftd Collingwood 13.8 (86) at the MCG
Line: Collingwood +49.5, Hawthorn -49.5
Collingwood scrapped home for a win against GWS, but injury wise it can’t take a trick. The casualty list needs to be seen to be believed and there is another three to add to it after the trip to Sydney. Brent Macaffer couldn’t have timed an ACL much worse, with the likely 12 month rehabilitation nearly crossing his 2015 season out. Dane Swan and Clinton Young have fallen to hamstring injuries and won’t be seen for the rest of the year, even if Collingwood do make finals. Heritier Lumumba returns to the side this week, but even an unlikely win against Hawthorn mightn’t be enough for the Pies to make the eight.
A spectacular come from behind victory against rival Geelong has all but guaranteed Hawthorn a top two position. After trailing by 33 points early in the third term, the Hawks piled on ten consecutive goals to blow the Cats out of the water and run away to a 23 point victory. It was a strange game of two halves, while contested possession and tackling numbers were down on previous encounters between the two clubs. The Hawks are sure to take some confidence to the likely rematch in the qualifying final. Suckling has finally succumbed to injury after a tough couple of weeks, while Hodge and Stratton have basically been rested.
Hawthorn have won the last six encounters between these two convincingly and with the current Collingwood injuries, it could get ugly early.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 65 POINTS
Suggested Bets
Jack Gunston to score 4 or more goals @ $3.00
CARLTON ($2.95) VS ESSENDON ($1.42)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 30/08, 13:45
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R3 2014 Essendon 21.12 (138) dftd Carlton 8.9 (57) at the MCG
Line: Carlton +17.5, Essendon -17.5
I was one of the suckers that was drawn into the impressive recent Carlton form and got burned on Friday night. Port Adelaide were fantastic, but the Blues were equally as bad. If the 103 point margin wasn’t enough, the statistics painted an even bleaker outlook of the game. It had -104 disposals, -101 uncontested possessions, -30 inside 50s, while its disposal efficiency was over 10% worse. It lacked defensive pressure as well, which led to Port Adelaide spreading to space at will and having 34 running bounces. Malthouse blamed his side for being tired, but come Round 22 you’d think that all clubs would be in a similar situation.
Essendon has all but secured its position in the top eight, after countering a minor scare form Gold Coast. A slightly stagnant Bombers line up was happy to keep possession in the first half, but that tactic ended up keeping the Suns in the game. Essendon’s game plan finally began to flow in the final quarter which saw it kick five goals and end the Gold Coast threat. The last thing Essendon wanted was a live encounter against arch rival Carlton, who would have been hungry to end the Bombers finals hopes. Dyson Heppell returns from a week off, but Jake Carlisle misses with a hamstring strain.
You can’t possible tip Carlton after last week’s capitulation. Essendon will be looking to continue building its momentum into September.
ESSENDON TO WIN BY 22 POINTS
Suggested Bets
Essendon @ the -4.5 quarter time line.
FREMANTLE ($1.42) VS PORT ADELAIDE ($2.95)
AT PATERSONS STADIUM, SATURDAY 30/08, 15:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R8 2014 Port Adelaide 13.16 (94) dftd Fremantle 11.10 (76) at AO
Line: Fremantle -15.5, Port +15.5
For the last month or so, trends were pointing toward a comfortable victory to the Dockers for this important clash. But this game has tightened dramatically with the return to form of Port Adelaide and some key personnel missing from Fremantle’s best 22. The stakes have also risen, as the winner will likely book itself a trip to Sydney with an all-important second chance. With Fyfe, Barlow and Pavlich missing, many believed that Brisbane could challenge the Dockers, but any concerns were put to rest quickly as Fremantle raced to a 47 point half time lead. The second half didn’t lift to any great standards and the Dockers ended with a comfortable 58 point win. Fyfe is still out due to suspension, while Michael Barlow and Matthew Pavlich have been named but are doubtful. Ross Lyon wouldn’t feel comfortable going into such an important clash without the experience of those three.
Is Port Adelaide back? I still need some convincing, but the signs are difficult to ignore. It is once again winning the footy first and running its opponents off their feet. It had 34 running bounces against the Blues to completely blow the game apart. Robbie Gray continued his outstanding season kicking 4 goals, gathering 31 disposals (16 contested), 7 clearances and had 3 goal assists. It was one of the great individual games of the season and his Brownlow odds are shortening by the week. White and Schulz go into the game under injury clouds, but it is basically a clean slate of health should those two get up.
The prize is enormous for the winner. Port were impressive against the Blues, but they haven’t beaten Fremantle away since 2008. Fremantle prides itself on being able to replace its stars with players that will contribute and I feel that will be enough.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 11 POINTS
Suggested Bets
Fremantle to kick over 12.5 goals @ $1.85
SYDNEY ($1.36) VS RICHMOND ($3.25)
AT ANZ STADIUM, SATURDAY 30/08, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R14 2014 Richmond 7.9 (51) lost to Sydney 9.8 (62) at the MCG
Line: Sydney -21.5, Richmond +21.5
The results Sydney is producing heading into September is enough to strike fear in any sane senior coach, but the form of Buddy Franklin is at the point where that fear is lifting to the sleepless night category. The big number 23 is currently doing as he pleases on the football field, having kicked 26 goals over the last five games and running away to a 9 goal Coleman Medal lead with one round remaining. He is arguably in the form of his career and is currently worth every cent he is getting paid. It would take a loss to Richmond and a large Hawthorn victory for Sydney to be toppled from the top of the ladder, so don’t be surprised if there are some sore bodies freshened up this week.
In one of the most amazing turnarounds of form in my life time, the Tigers find themselves in the top eight after 8 consecutive victories. As we speak there are hundreds of Richmond supporters traveling on the Hume Highway bound for ANZ Stadium to help cheer their team over the line. Ironically, Sydney were the last team to beat Richmond before the current streak began in Round 15, where the Tigers were gallant in defeat by only 11 points. The result is sure to provide hope that Richmond can indeed knock off the premiership favourite at home. Dustin Martin was a late withdrawal with hamstring tightness against the Saints, but he is a certainty to return for this monster event.
I’d be waiting for all teams to be confirmed on the night before betting on this game. Should Sydney rest some key players it is game on, but I can’t see the Tigers beating a full strength Swans line up.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 23 POINTS
Suggested Bets
Quarter by quarter leader Sydney/Sydney/Sydney/Sydney @ $2.00 (pending no big late changes)
NORTH MELBOURNE ($1.09) VS MELBOURNE ($8.50)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 30/08, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R14 2014 Melbourne 10.6 (66) lost to North Melbourne 15.17 (107) at the MCG
Line: North -43.5, Melbourne +43.5
North Melbourne had to fight hard to fully secure its top eight position against Adelaide. The 7 point victory has set up a likely North Melbourne vs Essendon elimination final clash at the MCG next week, which is sure to draw a decent crowd. North Melbourne found itself an unlikely forward target on Saturday afternoon in Jack Ziebell, who took 4 contested marks, 5 marks inside 50 and had 9 shots on goal (including 4 goals). It was a performance that could be career defining and he has the type of strong body that characteristically has an impact come September. Daniel Wells will return from suspension and you suspect Brad Scott would like to test him out. Goldstein, Greenwood, Thomas, Firrito and McDonald have all been rested.
We really didn’t expect much from Melbourne on Saturday night and they produced no surprises in going down to West Coast by 11 goals. There isn’t too much for Melbourne to play for this coming Saturday night, as you’d think that even list management decisions would be finalised by now. The ending to the season would be a bitter pill for most Demons supporters to swallow, but let’s hope they haven’t forgotten the structural improvement from the horror show of 2013.
North Melbourne really should blow the Dees away and cover that -43.5 line with ease, even with the restings.
NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 61 POINTS
Suggested Bets
North Melbourne @ the -43.5 line
GEELONG ($1.14) VS BRISBANE ($6.00)
AT SIMONDS STADIUM, SATURDAY 30/08, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R2 2014 Brisbane Lions 10.8 (68) lost to Geelong 13.15 (93) at G
Line: Geelong -38.5, Brisbane +38.5
Boy did the Cats look sharp against Hawthorn in the first half. It amassed 100 more disposals in that time, dominating the possession on the outside. A 31 point half time lead looked capable of blowing out to margins rarely seen between these two clubs, but as most at the ground expected, Hawthorn came back. Not even Alastair Clarkson could have predicted the magnitude of his sides response, kicking 10 unanswered goals to leave the Cats shell-shocked. It was a strange game that featured 559 uncontested possessions, which indicates that the clash hardly replicated finals intensity. It will be interesting to see what it all means in a couple of weeks. McIntosh, Christensen and Motlop will be saved for the qualifying final.
Brisbane would have been looking to produce a greater effort for its last home game, but were out of contention by the second quarter as Fremantle scored with relative ease. Tom Rockliff continued his amazing form, becoming only the second player in history to gather 200 disposals in a five game stretch. It was his third consecutive 40+ disposal game and the fifth time he had reached the landmark this year. He is producing numbers that we’ve only really ever seen from Dane Swan and Gary Ablett. It is good to see Matthew Leuenberger back in the team.
The Geelong line looks a tad high to me. Only three of the Cats sixteen wins have been over 38 points this year and I doubt they’ll be taking too many risks on Saturday night. The last five encounters between these two have all been under 40 points as well. The 1-39 odds look outstanding value at $2.45, especially with McIntosh, Christensen and Motlop done.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 25 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Geelong to win 1-39 @ $2.45
GOLD COAST ($3.05) VS WEST COAST ($1.40)
AT METRICON STADIUM, SUNDAY 31/08, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R13 2014 West Coast 15.13 (103) dftd Gold Coast 15.10 (100) at PS
Line: Gold Coast +18.5, West Coast -18.5
Gold Coast can still make the top eight mathematically, but it needs a miracle result against West Coast to boost its percentage. You can basically rule them out and you get the feeling Guy McKenna has too. The effort against Essendon was credible as it led by a goal at the midway point of the final quarter. The Bombers took some calculated risks by moving the ball quicker and shifting Hurley forward which exposed the Suns. They will be looking to finish off a positive year with a positive result. Trent McKenzie is out with a hamstring.
West Coast are in a prime position to steal that final spot in the eight. Should West Coast beat the Suns, it needs to rely on Hawthorn and Sydney wins, while also hoping Adelaide don’t inflict too much damage on St Kilda to ensure the 4.5% differential isn’t eaten up. A big win against the Suns would be the ideal result, but they can’t be taking Gold Coast too lightly after its gallant effort at Etihad last week. Nic Naitanui was a late withdrawal against Melbourne, but will return to the side. Scott Selwood is also back, but Hutchings, Cox and Brown will all miss.
After four consecutive Patersons Stadium encounters against the Suns, West Coast play at Metricon for the very first time on Sunday. I expect the Eagles to have far too many scoring options.
WEST COAST TO WIN BY 31 POINTS
Suggested Bets
West Coast to make the 8 @ $1.95
ADELAIDE ($1.05) VS ST KILDA ($11.00)
AT ADELAIDE OVAL, SUNDAY 31/08, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R4 2014 St Kilda 7.8 (50) lost to Adelaide 20.16 (136) at ES
Line: Adelaide -54.5, St Kilda +54.5
The Adelaide Crows are in desperate need for a big victory against the Saints to make the top eight, should West Coast win (and of course if Collingwood and Richmond lose). Hypothetically, let’s say West Coast wins by the 19 point line against Gold Coast and St Kilda scores its season average 68 points, Adelaide would then need to win by approximately 80 points to pass the Eagles percentage. So the Crows will be looking to keep the Saints score as low as possible, as well keeping the scoreboard ticking over, which it has had no problem doing this year. Interesting times for Brenton Sanderson.
In what has felt an entire season, the Lenny Hayes tribute will finally end on Sunday afternoon as he plays his final game in the red, white and black. The Saints would love to register one final victory for their humble champion, but they meet a side with far more to play for should the earlier results fall its way.
Adelaide dealt with the Saints in convincing style at Etihad earlier in the season and while I don’t expect the result to reach 86 points again, the 10 goal barrier is in threat.
ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 65 POINTS
Suggested Bets
Total match of over 190.5 points @ $1.88
WESTERN BULLDOGS ($1.31) VS GWS ($3.60)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 31/08, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R4 2014 GWS Giants 12.11 (83) lost to Western Bulldogs 17.8 (110) at Canberra
Line: Dogs -23.5, GWS +23.5
The Western Bulldogs have had consecutive 50+ point losses and will be desperate to leave its supporters with a positive final result for season 2014. The Dogs were completely outclassed by a Sydney line up that obviously has bigger fish to fry. It was another disappointing performance at the stoppages for the Western Bulldogs, losing 32-46 after showing improvement throughout the second half of the season. Brendan McCartney will be looking forward to having his midfielders in top condition come Round 1, 2015.
The Giants gave an undermanned Collingwood a nice fright on Saturday evening. The thing that most people forget is that the Giants were just as injury ravaged, making the performance even more respectable. GWS have easily had its most competitive season in the AFL with five victories, while the blowout margins have become far less common. There is plenty to build from and it wouldn’t be unrealistic to be aiming for ten wins next year.
The Western Bulldogs have far less injury concerns and should finish the season on a high.
WESTERN BULLDOGS TO WIN BY 28 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Phil Davis to have at least 1 scoring shot @ $8.00
