Welcome to the Round 21 AFL Preview. The bottom half of the top eight is as open as it has been for years so close to finals, with six clubs still fighting for seventh and eighth positions. Adelaide and Essendon currently hold the vital spots, but the likes of Collingwood, Gold Coast, West Coast and Richmond are either equal on points or only a win away. Even Port Adelaide and North Melbourne can be caught in fifth and sixth respectively, but there would need to be some serious upsets for either to lose their home elimination finals. The fascinating thing with this situation is that a lot of the clubs play each during the remaining three rounds, starting with Essendon vs West Coast, Adelaide vs Richmond and to a lesser extent, Gold Coast vs Port Adelaide. In reality, the elimination finals have begun earlier than most expected.
BEST BET
Port Adelaide @ the -18.5 line
CARLTON ($2.80) VS GEELONG ($1.46)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, FRIDAY 15/08, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R12 2014 Geelong 16.11 (107) dftd Carlton 15.12 (102) at ES
Line: Carlton +15.5, Geelong -15.5
Carlton are sitting in thirteenth position on the ladder with only seven wins and no mathematical chance of making the finals, but that hasn’t stopped them from playing outstanding footy of late. The gun midfield is firing on all cylinders with Chris Judd back in the side. Marc Murphy and Bryce Gibbs have played great footy this year, but the output of this side lifts even further with Judd in good form. After indicating for most of the season that he would retire at years end, the Blues received a pleasant surprise this week with the dual Brownlow Medalist announcing he will play on into 2015. On form alone, it appears he has plenty left in the tank.
The Cats continue sneaking under the radar heading into September, despite the occasional fright along the way. It has now strung together six consecutive victories and is building its form nicely. Geelong faded once again after appearing to hold an unassailable lead and could have truly put the game to rest had Jimmy Bartel converted two simple chances early in the last quarter. That kept Fremantle in the game and they fought until the end, with a David Mundy shot after the siren slightly straying right and giving the Cats a lucky escape. Steve Johnson thankfully got off his dumb/moronic kick to Lachie Neale, but will miss with a foot injury. Bartel also misses with a corky.
Carlton still hasn’t beaten Geelong at Etihad after 12 encounters, but have challenged admirably the last four times. Jarrad Waite has been in outstanding form but faces a much tougher task against a ridiculously in touch Geelong defence, especially without Henderson. It could be tight, especially without Bartel or Johnson, but the Cats should be too strong.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 9 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Group 2 most disposals Allen Christensen @ $5.50
SYDNEY ($1.02) VS ST KILDA ($16.00)
AT THE SCG, SATURDAY 16/08, 13:45
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R21 2013 Sydney 18.10 (118) dftd St Kilda 8.11 (59) at the SCG
Line: Sydney -61.5, St Kilda +61.5
I’m not actually sure what to make of the Swans currently. They continue notching up the wins that will see them finish in the top two, but there’s some concerning trends that could be creating sleepless nights for John Longmire. It lost the clearance (third consecutive week) and contested ball counts to a Port Adelaide side that has been battling to get its hands on the footy first for several weeks. It’s an area that has made Sydney what they are and it isn’t the best time of the year to be dropping off in such critical KPIs. The stoppages are an area I’ll watch with interest on Saturday.
The Saints are starting to confuse me. You would think it would be impossible for a side to come out flat for a Lenny Hayes tribute game, yet the Dogs were able to kick seven goals in the first quarter and kill the match early. To the Saints credit it fought back and pushed late, but you can’t leave your charge until the second half in those circumstances. It is a tough road home for the Saints and while it may end the season with three losses, it must at least be competitive.
The Swans are $1.02 for a reason. St Kilda won’t get close.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 66 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Sydney quarter time margin of 33+ points @ $8.00
GOLD COAST ($3.15) VS PORT ADELAIDE ($1.38)
AT METRICON STADIUM, SATURDAY 16/08, 14:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R21 2013 Port Adelaide 16.17 (113) dftd Gold Coast 14.12 (96) at AAMI
Line: Gold Coast +18.5, Port -18.5
The Gold Coast side that strolled onto Etihad Stadium Saturday afternoon stunk of a group with no expectations. The self-doubt was there for all to see and if there were critics who didn’t think the Suns were cooked before Round 20, it’s hard to find any now. It is no coincidence that the numbers started dropping off with the injury to Gary Ablett. I’m disappointed as I was of the opinion that younger players had matured enough to fend for themselves, but this form slump just proves how ridiculously good Gary Ablett is. I doubt there is more than 4-5 players in the current best 22 who believe that their side will play finals and Guy McKenna must find a way to change that frame of mind. Charlie Dixon is an important inclusion.
There is a belief in the media, especially Adelaide based that feel the performance against Sydney was a step in the right direction. It certainly wasn’t a step backwards, but I don’t think the Swans were anywhere near it’s “A” game. It should serve as a nice confidence booster though, as beating the Swans for contested possession and clearances is no mean feat. I just need further proof that the Power are building toward earlier set standards, as the result itself is still a drop off from the Round 13 encounter against Sydney away. Matt White’s line breaking speed has been missed and is a welcomed inclusion.
Gold Coast are flat and really can’t be trusted for the remaining rounds. Port Adelaide must step its intensity up this week and there is no better chance to kill off a team on the slide like the Suns. That -18.5 line should be easily covered.
PORT ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 38 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Port Adelaide @ the -18.5 line
ESSENDON ($1.62) VS WEST COAST ($2.35)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 16/08, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R20 2013 Essendon 9.13 (67) lost to West Coast 18.12 (120) at ES
Line: Essendon -9.5, West Coast +9.5
It was such a frustrating loss for the Bombers on Friday night. Essendon had 52 more possessions, 12 more inside 50s, 9 more contested possessions and 9 more centre clearances. They are numbers usually associated with a winning team, but the following set of numbers are just as defining. The Bombers only laid 50 tackles, which led to a whopping Richmond disposal efficiency of 81.1%. Essendon were influential at the centre clearances where there is more space, but when there were more numbers at the stoppages around the ground, the Bombers were down 9-28. Mark Thompson’s side were clearly a long way off when it came to the harder aspects of the game, which he would be disgusted in. Jobe Watson will make his long awaited return and Michael Hibberd has been an underrated loss. While those two are great inclusions, Jake Carlisle is an enormous loss.
The West Coast Eagles are up and smelling September action. It has only won two games in a row, but is all of a sudden only a game outside the top eight and possess an extremely strong percentage of 111.83%. With clashes against Melbourne and Gold Coast in Round 22 and 23 respectively, a win against the Bombers will nearly guarantee September action. It is amazing to think that the club was planning on Dean Cox playing his final game against Melbourne next week, but such celebrations have been scrapped for the time being. Mark LeCras still isn’t available for selection.
This is a massive game. There are huge consequences for both clubs, so expect a high intensity encounter. Richmond showed that if you can get the ball inside Essendon’s back 50 quickly, they are vulnerable. The Eagles have finally become attacking over the last two weeks and this aggressive style could catch Essendon out, especially at Etihad.
WEST COAST TO WIN BY 8 POINTS
Suggested Bet
West Coast to make the final eight @ $3.70
ADELAIDE ($1.45) VS RICHMOND ($2.85)
AT ADELAIDE OVAL, SATURDAY 16/08, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R12 2013 Richmond 16.14 (110) dftd Adelaide 10.12 (72) at the MCG
Line: Adelaide -15.5, Richmond +15.5
After Brenton Sanderson sounded concerned about the 24 degree heat pregame, his side adapted to it with aplomb, running away to a 105 point victory in Brisbane. It is obvious that Sanderson actually had an eye on Round 21, as the Crows have a six day break leading into this must win victory against Richmond. While he said he hopes his players weren’t listening to his concerns, the media ensured there wasn’t anyone in the country who missed his comments by replaying them for the next two days. You certainly don’t want to be seen creating doubts in your own players heads. Podsiadly is back for the Crows.
The Tigers finals bandwagon continues to roll on and could become out of control should the yellow and black get up this weekend. The winning streak has now reached an impressive six and supporters feel it can reach the required nine to be a chance for September action. Richmond had less inside 50s than Essendon on the weekend, but a brilliant disposal efficiency of 81.1% saw the Tigers far more effective once it hit its forward arc. The injury list is still small at Tigerland and there are plenty fighting for positions from the VFL. The momentum is lifting with every win.
Like Essendon vs West Coast, this is an enormous clash and will shape the final ladder. While losing by 105 points, Brisbane again showed you can break away end to end with speed against the Crows. Richmond is a side that can expose this with good ball use from half back and also possesses the luxury of two extra days to prepare. This game is far tighter than the odds suggest and the Richmond +15.5 line is good value.
RICHMOND TO WIN BY 4 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Richmond @ the +15.5 line
COLLINGWOOD ($1.14) VS BRISBANE ($6.00)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 16/08, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R10 2013 Brisbane Lions 7.9 (51) lost to Collingwood 14.16 (100) at the Gabba
Line: Collingwood -36.5, Brisbane +36.5
The most disappointing team of the weekend had to be Collingwood and those finals dreams are slipping away fast. There was hardly a statistic that West Coast didn’t decimate Collingwood in, but the midfield numbers are the biggest concern. Pendlebury, Beams, and Sidebottom continue to produce good individual totals, but the support lacks so much depth. Contested possessions were 125-152, clearances 41-47 and hit outs 31-55. The Pies have had to run with Witts and Grundy in the ruck a couple of years earlier than hoped, which hasn’t helped the situation. That is just where the list is at and Buckley must find alternative ways to get first use of the footy to earn a finals berth. Big ins for the Pies with Dane Swan and Luke Ball adding much needed midfield depth.
After some great performances of late, Justin Leppitsch would have been shocked with a 100+ point result. His young defence was put to the sword as the Crows took 18 inside 50 marks. Laying 46 tackles is unacceptable at AFL level, especially when an individual lays 10 himself (Tom Rockliff). It would be easy for the Lions youngsters to drop their heads after such a result, but you get the feeling they have a tad more ticker than that.
Collingwood are expected to win this and should, but expect a more determined Lions outfit than last week.
COLLINGWOOD TO WIN BY 24 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.30
NORTH MELBOURNE ($1.36) VS WESTERN BULLDOGS ($3.25)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 17/08, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R2 2014 Western Bulldogs 8.6 (54) lost to North Melbourne 12.11 (83) at ES
Line: North -20.5, Dogs +20.5
North Melbourne found itself with an unexpected battle on its hands against GWS at half time, clinging onto an unconvincing four point lead. From there, the Roos senior players decided it was time to up the ante, kicking eight goals to none in the third quarter and sealing the four points by three quarter time. Petrie was able to feast on five goals for a much needed pre finals confidence spike, while the likes of Cunnington, Harvey and Bastinac won plenty of the pill. The Kangaroos have the Dogs, Crows and Melbourne to finish the home and away season, so finals is basically a given. Greenwood and Wells return for the Roos.
The Western Bulldogs spoiled the Lenny Hayes party early, kicking seven goals in the first quarter. It got challenged late and dealt with that nicely too, kicking the last two goals of the game. It lifts the Dogs to seven wins, which is about where many expected them to fall in at this year. They have a beauty in Jake Stringer up forward, who finally earned a rising star nomination with four clutch goals. He has the ability to play as a big bodied midfielder too, so it will be interesting to see where he consistently plays in the coming years.
North Melbourne have far too much class for the Dogs and should win comfortably.
NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 30 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Ben Brown first goal scorer @ $15.00
MELBOURNE ($1.52) VS GWS ($2.60)
AT THE MCG, SUNDAY 17/08, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R3 2014 GWS Giants 10.19 (79) dftd Melbourne 7.5 (47) at Spotless
Line: Melbourne -12.5, GWS +12.5
It always feels strange when you have a team that loses by 50 points, yet deserves credit for the effort put in. You wouldn’t quite say that Melbourne had an honourable loss against Hawthorn, but there were definite positives to take out of the game. Winning the clearances 45-40 was certainly one of those, while laying 71 tackles indicates that the players were willing to provide the expected defensive pressure. They are small steps in the right direction and can’t be taken for granted in a year based on development.
GWS were great in the first half, but the same intent wasn’t seen after the main break. The Giants laid an extremely low 38 tackles for the game, while 102 contested possessions is generally associated with a team that lacked effort. It has been a long season for GWS, but it must lift the KPIs against a side like Melbourne that is beatable. I’d hate to see the Giants let season 2014 dwindle away.
Hawthorn were only the fourth side to score over 100 points against Melbourne and it is hard to see GWS scoring freely against them. Melbourne are still doing the basics right, while you can’t quite say the same thing for the Giants.
MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 17 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Total match points under 163.5 points @ $1.88
FREMANTLE ($1.70) VS HAWTHORN ($2.20)
AT PATERSONS STADIUM, SUNDAY 17/08, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R3 2014 Hawthorn 21.11 (137) dftd Fremantle 11.13 (79) at the MCG
ine: Fremantle -4.5, Hawthorn +4.5
Any concerns that Fremantle were falling away as a premiership contender were knocked on the head at Simonds Stadium on Saturday night. A more accurate 50 metre shot after the siren from David Mundy would have seen the Dockers second consecutive win at Simonds Stadium, a feat not achieved by any away side since before the Geelong 2007 premiership. Fremantle absolutely dominated the clearances 48-26 and won the contested possession 150-141, but strangely enough were beaten convincingly in most other areas. A free kick count of 14-31 frustrated Ross Lyon, but probably indicated his side was the least disciplined on the night. Despite the loss, the signs were much better for Fremantle. Luke McPharlin is again out for an extended period, leaving his finals chances in serious doubt.
Who would have thought directly after the 2013 premiership, Hawthorn would play a game the following year with a forward line that didn’t include any of Franklin, Roughead and Gunston? Well it could happen this week as the Hawks prepare for the second Grand Final rematch of the season potentially without two targets that have kicked nearly 100 goals between them. Gunston has been named, but would have to be in doubt after missing only the week with a minor medial strain. Whether he plays or not, we are more than aware that Hawthorn have numerous avenues to goal. As long as the tall targets compete, the scoring won’t take too much of a hit.
It isn’t often that you don’t see Hawthorn as favourite in a game, especially against a side it has won the last six encounters against. Roughead is obviously hard to replace, but that doesn’t mean form lines should be ignored. Hawthorn are great value at $2.20, despite the exclusions.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 12 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Hawthorn to win head to head @ $2.20
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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