Welcome to The Profits AFL midseason review. We are past the midway point of the 2013 home and away season and with the byes completed, there is no better time to assess what has already occurred and what is likely to materialise over the next three months. I’ll be going through where each individual club is at and what is ahead. There will also be detailed wraps on the Brownlow and Coleman Medals, Rising star and an All Australian team up to Round 13 to generate a bit of discussion.
Hawthorn has skipped away to a handy break over the other top teams and will be difficult to make ground on with only 10 games remaining. Port Adelaide and Brisbane upsetting Sydney and Geelong respectively has had a huge impact on the final make up of the top 4. Sydney went from threatening for a top 2 spot, to fighting for its double chance in a matter of hours. The Geelong vs Fremantle Round 14 encounter will have large ramifications and could be the difference between a home or interstate final.
The bottom end of the top 8 is also shaping up for a tight battle in the late rounds. Richmond and Collingwood are now 2 games clear of ninth and both have favourable draws. They are very close to booking themselves for finals action. Where the action heats up is for eighth spot. Port Adelaide has put itself back in contention after the shock Sydney win, but will need to get through a difficult block of games with minimal damage. Carlton and West Coast are the other two teams in contention for that final position and look more likely than Port Adelaide. It appears 12 or 11 wins will be enough for this last valuable spot, a far cry from last year when North Melbourne finished eighth with 14 victories.
HAWTHORN
CURRENTLY: 1ST (11-1)
PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $3.20
TOP 4 ODDS: $1.02
REMAINING FIXTURE:
14 Brisbane Lions Aurora
15 Geelong MCG
16 Port Adelaide AAMI
17 Western Bulldogs Aurora
18 Essendon Etihad
19 Richmond MCG
20 St Kilda Etihad
21 Collingwood MCG
22 North Melbourne Etihad
23 Sydney ANZ
Alastair Clarkson’s men are sitting pretty on the top of the ladder after 11 consecutive wins. With the likes of Cyril Rioli and Brendan Whitecross to return, the Hawks are in a fantastic position. Jarryd Roughead is producing arguably his best season in the forward/ruck role and has kicked an impressive 36 goals. Lance Franklin is finally beginning to hit some consistent form and looking more dangerous with every game he plays. Hawthorn plays 6 of the current top 8 teams, including Sydney and Geelong. That shouldn’t stop them from cementing a top 4 position and an all important home qualifying final.
Predicted finish: 1st-2nd
GEELONG
CURRENTLY: 2ND (10-2)
PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $4.50
TOP 4 ODDS: $1.15
REMAINING FIXTURE:
14 Fremantle Simonds
15 Hawthorn MCG
16 Melbourne Simonds
17 Adelaide AAMI
18 St Kilda Simonds
19 North Melbourne Etihad
20 Port Adelaide Simonds
21 West Coast Patersons
22 Sydney Simonds
23 Brisbane Lions Simonds
The Cats are at 10-2 after the shock loss to Brisbane who came from the clouds. After the Swans lost to Port, Geelong would have been looking to create some daylight between the other top 4 contenders. The Cats would have been contemplating the management of its players to be in prime condition for the finals, but that luxury has potentially been lost.
Geelong has a great blend of youth and experience with Motlop, Blicavs, Duncan and Christensen all stepping up this year. The experienced heads in Selwood, Johnson, Bartel, Taylor and Hawkins continue to perform at high levels. Trent West and Mark Blicavs have fought admirably throughout the season, but Chris Scott would be looking forward to recruit Hamish McIntosh getting on top of his injury woes. Jared Rivers, Travis Varcoe and Paul Chapman will also be key inclusions to the best 22 during the second half of the season.
Geelong have a friendly run to the finals with 6 games at Simonds Stadium, but encounters against Hawthorn, Sydney and Fremantle will shape the top 4.
Predicted finish: 1ST-3rd
FREMANTLE
CURRENTLY: 3rd (9-1-2)
PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $7.50
TOP 4 ODDS: $1.27
REMAINING FIXTURE:
14 Geelong Simonds
15 St Kilda Patersons
16 West Coast Patersons
17 Richmond MCG
18 Adelaide Patersons
19 Carlton Etihad
20 GWS Patersons
21 Melbourne MCG
22 Port Adelaide Patersons
23 St Kilda Etihad
Ross Lyon would be ecstatic with 9 wins and a draw at this point of the season. The absences of Matthew Pavlich and Aaron Sandilands have made the performance even more impressive. The midfield of Barlow, Mundy and Fyfe is extremely underrated by the average punter, while the backline is rarely beaten. The Dockers are only conceding 70 points per game and have adopted the strangling Ross Lyon game plan with aplomb.
Fremantle play only 3 current top 8 sides and have a final month that includes GWS, Melbourne, Port Adelaide and St Kilda. They’d be extremely disappointed if a top 4 spot isn’t secured from this position, especially with Pavlich and Sandilands to return.
Predicted finish: 3rd-5th
ESSENDON
CURRENTLY: 4TH (9-3)
PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $13.00
TOP 4 ODDS: $2.60
REMAINING FIXTURE:
14 West Coast Patersons
15 Port Adelaide Etihad
16 Western Bulldogs Etihad
17 GWS Skoda
18 Hawthorn Etihad
19 Collingwood MCG
20 West Coast Etihad
21 North Melbourne Etihad
22 Carlton MCG
23 Richmond MCG
The recent trend of non finalists reaching the top 4 after missing the previous year could continue with Essendon in a great position. A season of controversy has been dealt with as well as it possibly could have due to on field success. James Hird has managed his players carefully but professionally around an ASADA investigation that is sure to be taking its toll. Jobe Watson has continued his Brownlow medal winning form, while Brendon Goddard has been a welcome addition with his poise and excellent possession. Jake Carisle and Michael Hibberd have become elite defenders and are both on All Australian pace. Games against West Coast, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Carlton and Richmond will be vital to their top 4 hopes.
Predicted finish: 3rd–5th
SYDNEY
CURRENTLY: 5th (8-1-3)
PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $5.00
TOP 4 ODDS: $1.30
REMAINING FIXTURE:
14 Carlton SCG
15 Melbourne MCG
16 GWS SCG
17 West Coast Patersons
18 Richmond SCG
19 Western Bulldogs Etihad
20 Collingwood ANZ
21 St Kilda SCG
22 Geelong Simonds
23 Hawthorn ANZ
The reigning premier had arguably been in the best form of any team this season, then from nowhere came the Port Adelaide loss. Performances against Collingwood, Essendon and Adelaide had most experts salivating and opposition teams fearing future encounters. The Port Adelaide effort was uncharacteristic and I’m sure they’ll bounce back quickly. Kurt Tippett made his long awaited debut and had an immediate impact. It will be interesting to see how important he’ll be in drier conditions. Shane Mumford is out for a month with a broken cheekbone, but may have trouble securing his spot back with Mike Pyke playing fantastic football.
A tough final two rounds against Geelong and Hawthorn will see the Swans needing to consolidate a top 4 spot early.
Predicted finish: 3rd-5th
RICHMOND
CURRENTLY: 6TH (8-4)
PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $17.00
FINAL 8 ODDS: $1.13
REMAINING FIXTURE:
14 St Kilda MCG
15 North Melbourne Etihad
16 Gold Coast Cazalys
17 Fremantle MCG
18 Sydney SCG
19 Hawthorn MCG
20 Brisbane Lions MCG
21 Carlton MCG
22 GWS Skoda
23 Essendon MCG
The silent giant is getter closer to roaring and reaching the finals for the first time since 2001. The bodies are becoming more mature and the performances are far more consistent. No one has stood out, just disciplined roles and outputs all over the field. Damien Hardwick would be pleased with the development. In saying that, it is time to start pushing the top teams more often and they’ll get their chance against Fremantle, Sydney and Hawthorn from rounds 17-19. It will need to improve its tackle ranking of 18th in the competition to compete with those types.
Apart from the tough block of games mentioned above, the Tigers have a comfortable run to the finals. They have 6 games at the MCG and play 6 current bottom 10 sides.
Predicted finish: 6TH-7TH
COLLINGWOOD
CURRENTLY: 7TH (8-4)
PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $14.00
FINAL 8 ODDS: $1.14
REMAINING FIXTURE:
14 Port Adelaide AAMI
15 Carlton MCG
16 Adelaide MCG
17 Gold Coast Metricon
18 GWS MCG
19 Essendon MCG
20 Sydney ANZ
21 Hawthorn MCG
22 West Coast MCG
23 North Melbourne MCG
Collingwood have had a retched run with injuries and would have to be happy at 8-4. Dayne Beams, Dale Thomas, Ben Johnson, Alan Toovey, Tyson Goldsack, Clinton Young and Luke Ball have all had extended periods off the field. There have been some disappointing and brilliant performances, but that will happen with such a large turnover of players. Dane Swan is starting to hit his straps after a slow start to the season. Scott Pendlebury has been as solid as ever and Paul Seedsman has managed to cement a place in the 18.
7 games at the MCG will be enough for the Pies to book themselves another finals berth.
Predicted finish: 6TH-7TH
PORT ADELAIDE
CURRENTLY: 8TH (7-5)
PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $251.00
FINAL 8 ODDS: $4.25
REMAINING FIXTURE:
14 Collingwood AAMI
15 Essendon Etihad
16 Hawthorn AAMI
17 St Kilda Etihad
18 Brisbane Lions AAMI
19 Adelaide AAMI
20 Geelong Simonds
21 Gold Coast AAMI
22 Fremantle Patersons
23 Carlton AAMI
Port Adelaide are certainly one of the big improvers of the competition. It started the season with 5 consecutive wins, followed by 5 losses, a standard GWS win and then a character building victory against the reigning premier. Ken Hinkley has been able to implement his ideas into a group of young players willing to listen and learn. Travis Boak has stepped up to the next level as captain and Chad Wingard has improved immensely under the new coach.
A fairly tough draw beckons. It would be an enormous effort to hold its spot in the top 8, especially with Collingwood, Essendon and Hawthorn to come in the next three weeks.
Predicted finish: 10th-12TH
CARLTON
CURRENTLY: 9TH (6-6)
PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $26.00
FINAL 8 ODDS: $1.85
REMAINING FIXTURE:
14 Sydney SCG
15 Collingwood MCG
16 St Kilda Etihad
17 North Melbourne Etihad
18 Gold Coast Metricon
19 Fremantle Etihad
20 Western Bulldogs Etihad
21 Richmond MCG
22 Essendon MCG
23 Port Adelaide AAMI
What has Mick Malthouse achieved since he has taken over Carlton? It is hard to argue too much at all to be honest. It is the same players being relied upon as last year, there doesn’t seem to be a player in the best 22 who has shown significant improvement and the results have been less than expected. They are in a fight with West Coast for the final spot in the 8. For a team that was earmarked to be top 4, securing a top 8 position would be a minimum requirement.
Three interstate trips and 6 current top 8 sides to play. It has to defeat some quality sides for a finals berth.
Predicted finish: 8TH-9TH
WEST COAST
CURRENTLY: 10TH (6-6)
PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $26.00
FINAL 8 ODDS: $1.93
REMAINING FIXTURE:
14 Essendon Patersons
15 Adelaide AAMI
16 Fremantle Patersons
17 Sydney Swans Patersons
18 Western Bulldogs Etihad
19 Gold Coast Patersons
20 Essendon Etihad
21 Geelong Patersons
22 Collingwood MCG
23 Adelaide Patersons
West Coast were a premiership favourite at the start of the season and it hasn’t been able to live up to that lofty tag at all. I am more than happy to admit that I also got sucked into the Eagles potential futures. It does need to be made aware that the club has been awfully cruelled by injury. At one point nearly half of the best 22 was on the injury list. Most are back, but Shannon Hurn and Scott Selwood are new long term additions. That is no excuse to have lost as many games in Perth as it has.
6 games at Patersons Stadium are handy, but there are many difficult matches scattered throughout.
Predicted finish: 8TH-9TH
ADELAIDE
CURRENTLY: 11TH (5-7)
PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $251.00
FINAL 8 ODDS: $8.00
REMAINING FIXTURE:
14 Gold Coast Metricon
15 West Coast AAMI
16 Collingwood MCG
17 Geelong AAMI
18 Fremantle Patersons
19 Port Adelaide AAMI
20 North Melbourne AAMI
21 Western Bulldogs Etihad
22 Melbourne AAMI
23 West Coast Eagles Patersons
Adelaide is the disappointment of the season. Having basked in the glory of a preliminary final last year and getting within 5 points of a grand final berth, big things were expected of the Crows. Unfortunately, they have lost their two prominent key forwards from that day and haven’t been able to replace them. Patrick Dangerfield amazingly continues to get better and is having a massive impact whether up forward or through the midfield. Rory Sloane competes every week and Richard Douglas has lifted his output, but apart from that the help is minimal.
The Crows play 6 teams outside the 8 but have left any potential run up the ladder too late.
Predicted finish: 11TH-13TH
GOLD COAST
CURRENTLY: 12TH (5-7)
PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $501.00
FINAL 8 ODDS: $15.00
REMAINING FIXTURE:
14 Adelaide Metricon
15 Brisbane Lions Gabba
16 Richmond Cazalys
17 Collingwood Metricon
18 Carlton Metricon
19 West Coast Patersons
20 Melbourne Metricon
21 Port Adelaide AAMI
22 St Kilda Etihad
23 GWS Metricon
The Suns have been very impressive. The improvement is obvious and I think Guy McKenna deserves a lot of credit after copping flack during his time at the Suns. It does help having the best player in the league at your disposal. Gary Ablett has just been supreme. He is the $1.90 Brownlow Medal favourite and deservingly so. Jaeger O’Meara has had a mammoth influence for a first year player and is the short priced favourite for the Rising Star award. The Suns will be looking to close out the year strongly and not tire after some recent taxing efforts.
They play 7 bottom 10 teams and Port Adelaide, so there are some really winnable games. The finals might be a stretch this year, but you can’t completely rule Gold Coast out just yet.
Predicted finish: 10TH-12TH
NORTH MELBOURNE
CURRENTLY: 13TH (4-8)
PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $126.00
FINAL 8 ODDS: $9.00
REMAINING FIXTURE:
14 GWS Etihad
15 Richmond Etihad
16 Brisbane Lions Gabba
17 Carlton Etihad
18 Melbourne Etihad
19 Geelong Etihad
20 Adelaide AAMI
21 Essendon Etihad
22 Hawthorn Etihad
23 Collingwood MCG
North Melbourne were always going to struggle replicating last year’s feats with a much more difficult draw. 4 losses by under a goal and leads of up to 41 points given up, 4-8 should have been something so much better. The attacking style of football is attractive on the eye, but it is probably lacking the defensive edge to be competitive at the death of tight games. The injury list has been next to nonexistent, so they have no excuse for what has been produced. Lindsay Thomas has been brilliant up forward, kicking 35 goals and is right in contention to receive his first All Australian gong.
North are too far back to challenge now, but even if it was in a good position, the last month would have been difficult to overcome.
Predicted finish: 11TH-14TH
BRISBANE
CURRENTLY: 14TH (4-8)
PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $501.00
FINAL 8 ODDS: $17.00
REMAINING FIXTURE:
14 Hawthorn Aurora
15 Gold Coast Gabba
16 North Melbourne Gabba
17 Melbourne TIO
18 Port Adelaide AAMI
19 St Kilda Gabba
20 Richmond MCG
21 GWS Gabba
22 Western Bulldogs Gabba
23 Geelong Simonds
Michael Voss was the new coach under the microscope of the media after Mark Neeld got sacked from Melbourne. But can a once in a generation victory against Geelong get his club up and going again?
The season promised so much for the Lions after winning the NAB Cup against Carlton in March. Unfortunately things went pear shaped quickly. It all started with an unexpected loss to the Western Bulldogs in round one that set a lack of confidence. A victory against the inform Essendon gave the football world a taste of what they are capable of, but there has rarely been any evidence of that form until the remarkable Geelong win.
Michael Voss still needs results to keep his job. Encounters against the Gold Coast, Melbourne, St Kilda, GWS and the Western Bulldogs will be defining.
Predicted finish: 11TH -14TH
ST KILDA
CURRENTLY: 15TH (3-9)
PREMIERSHIP ODDS: N/A
REMAINING FIXTURE:
14 Richmond MCG
15 Fremantle Patersons
16 Carlton Etihad
17 Port Adelaide Etihad
18 Geelong Simonds
19 Brisbane Lions Gabba
20 Hawthorn Etihad
21 Sydney SCG
22 Gold Coast Etihad
23 Fremantle Etihad
It took Scott Watters a while to admit that the club was at the beginning of a rebuild, but it was an obvious statement considering his list lacks players aged between 20 and 29. In saying that, he would be disappointed to have not won more with the quality top end players he possesses. Nick Riewoldt has had a huge season. He looked to be slowing down in recent years, but has produced one of his best in 2013. Leigh Montagna has also stepped up, averaging 26.7 disposals a game. The youth that has come into the team has struggled to conjure the required performances, but it is a step in the right direction.
The Saints have a tough draw ahead and will be looking to stay out of the bottom 4.
Predicted finish: 15TH-16TH
WESTERN BULLDOGS
CURRENTLY: 16TH (3-9)
PREMIERSHIP ODDS: N/A
REMAINING FIXTURE:
14 Melbourne MCG
15 GWS Manuka Oval
16 Essendon Etihad
17 Hawthorn Aurora
18 West Coast Etihad
19 Sydney Etihad
20 Carlton Etihad
21 Adelaide Etihad
22 Brisbane Lions Gabba
23 Melbourne Etihad
Another team admittedly in a rebuild, the Western Bulldogs always knew it was going to be a tough year. They have managed to introduce some quality young talent that has managed to have an impact including Jake Stringer, Jackson Macrae, Nathan Hrovat and Lachie Hunter. Tom Liberatore has improved so much that he is leading the competition for clearances. Ryan Griffen is in All Australian form and has clearly been the Dogs most damaging player. Unfortunately his efforts are more often than not wasted due to inexperienced key position players. Will Minson has been dominant in the ruck, giving the talented young midfielders first use.
The Western Bulldogs have GWS and Melbourne up next, a great opportunity for consecutive wins. They play Melbourne again Round 23.
Predicted finish: 15TH-16TH
MELBOURNE
CURRENTLY: 17TH (1-11)
WOODEN SPOON ODDS: $3.25
REMAINING FIXTURE:
14 Western Bulldogs MCG
15 Sydney MCG
16 Geelong Simonds
17 Brisbane TIO
18 North Melbourne Etihad
19 GWS Skoda
20 Gold Coast Metricon
21 Fremantle MCG
22 Adelaide AAMI
23 Western Bulldogs Etihad
What a traumatic season for the Melbourne Football Club. It started with sanctions for tanking, confirmed links with sports scientist Stephen Dank and finally the horrid on field results that saw Mark Neeld lose his job. Things don’t get too much worse than that for a football club. Neil Craig has taken the reins and showed instant improvement against St Kilda. Nathan Jones has been the clear standout through the midfield while Colin Garland has been solid down back amidst the constant barrage.
The Demons will already be eyeing off Round 19 against GWS. It is likely to be a battle for the wooden spoon or more importantly, the No.1 pick of the 2013 Draft.
Predicted finish: 17TH-18TH
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
CURRENTLY: 18TH (0-12)
WOODEN SPOON ODDS: $1.33
REMAINING FIXTURE:
14 North Melbourne Etihad
15 Western Bulldogs Manuka
16 Sydney SCG
17 Essendon Skoda
18 Collingwood MCG
19 Melbourne Skoda
20 Fremantle Patersons
21 Brisbane Lions Gabba
22 Richmond Skoda
23 Gold Coast Metricon
GWS are forgiven for a lot of its ugly results due to an extreme youth policy. Although there comes a point in time where enough is enough and the potential of not winning a game this season is seen as completely crossing the line. The loss of senior players like Luke Power, Chad Cornes and James McDonald has hurt the depth of the Giants, while Setanta O’hAilpin and Bret Thornton haven’t managed to produce the performances they would have liked. Jeremy Cameron has been the obvious shining light having kicked 33 from starved opportunities.
Like Melbourne, GWS will have the Round 19 encounter at Skoda Stadium highlighted. This will be its one and only opportunity to notch a victory for the 2013 season. It will be a tense afternoon.
Predicted finish: 17TH-18TH
BROWNLOW MEDAL
I’ve been compiling my own Brownlow Medal votes for the last couple of seasons with some relative success. Last season my count produced Jobe Watson as winner, 9 of the top 10 and a majority of the club leaders. I try to watch as many games as possible, but with 18 hours of football a week and general life commitments, watching all games is usually an impossible task. The games I do miss get analysed to within an inch of their lives with match reports, statistics, media opinion and coaches association votes all considered if I can’t watch a replay.
I attempt to keep an umpires point of view, which can be hard as it frustrates me that key position players continuously get robbed of votes. I have implemented a new aspect this year by documenting the games of players who I haven’t given votes, but have performed well enough to potentially still poll. The extra potential poll games (EPPG) will hopefully give a greater indication and truer range of the total votes a player finishes on.
Here are the double figure vote getters after Round 13:
21 Votes: Gary Ablett (GCS) 1 x EPPG
16 Votes: Dan Hannebery (SYD) 1 x EPPG Patrick Dangerfield (ADEL)
14 Votes:
Kieren Jack (SYD) 1 x EPPG
13 Votes: Jobe Watson (ESS) 1 x EPPG
11 Votes: Michael Barlow (FREM) 3 x EPPG Travis Boak (PA) 2 x EPPG Brett Deledio (RICH) 2 x EPPG Ryan Griffen (WB) 1 x EPPG
Nathan Fyfe (FREM) 0 x EPPG
10 Votes: Dane Swan (COLL) 3 x EPPG Scott Pendlebury (COLL) 3 x EPPG Steve Johnson (GEEL) 0 x EPPG
Here are some notable names with low votes:
Chris Judd (CARL) – 0 votes – 5 x EPPG
Nick Dal Santo (STK) – 0 votes – 1 EPPG
James Kelly (GEEL) – 0 votes – 5 x EPPG
Scott Thompson (ADEL) – 1 vote – 3 x EPPG
Lance Franklin (HAW) – 1 vote – 3 x EPPG
Matthew Boyd (WB) – 1 vote – 1 x EPPG
Daniel Kerr (WCE) – 2 votes – 0 x EPPG
Brent Stanton (ESS) – 3 votes – 5 x EPPG
Jimmy Bartel (GEEL) – 3 votes – 4 x EPPG
Adam Goodes (SYD) – 3 votes – 1 x EPPG
Trent Cotchin (RICH) – 4 votes – 2 x EPPG
Sam Mitchell (HAW) – 5 votes – 4 x EPPG
Marc Murphy (CARL) – 6 votes – 2 x EPPG
Josh Kennedy (SYD) – 7 votes – 2 x EPPG
The Favourites:
GARY ABLETT (GCS) – $1.90
He is the man to catch. 21 votes on my count and Gold Coast have some very winnable games coming up. Not too many players to take votes off him and it appears only injury can stop the champ from here.
DAN HANNEBERY (SYD) – $9.00
Hannebery is the biggest improver of the season to date. He has become elite and is producing high level football consistently. My voting system has him on 16, but he has the likes of Jack, Kennedy and McVeigh demanding and potentially taking votes from him.
JOBE WATSON (ESS) – $11.00
The reigning Brownlow Medallist is having another outstanding season. Essendon are winning plenty of games and he has been taking advantage of that. Beware the Bombers potentially managing their skipper to be fit and firing for finals time.
PATRICK DANGERFIELD (ADEL) – $11.00
Dangerfield is the only man who can catch Ablett from here. He has been close to a one man show at the Crows and only has Rory Sloane as a serious threat to steal votes. Whether the Crows have won enough games or not is the major question, but they do have a good run home.
DANE SWAN (COLL) – $11.00
Swan is making a very late charge with Collingwoods last three games all potentially consecutive best on ground performances. Pendlebury will take votes and you’d think he is coming from a long way back. There is better value and more likely options elsewhere.
Prediction:
It is too hard to go against Gary Ablett. Patrick Dangerfield is his main threat and certainly better value. Check his form over the coming weeks.
Value Selection:
Kieren Jack @ $34.00. I currently have Jack on 14 votes with 1 x EPPG. Jack isn’t necessarily a threat to Ablett, but he is a great Top 3 option. He has to compete with Hannebery and Kennedy, but the Swans have won enough games to share some votes around.
COLEMAN MEDAL
The Coleman Medal race is well and truly alive with nine players all within reach. It may end up being a matter of who has the more comfortable draw with teams like Melbourne and GWS consistently conceding individual bags of goals.
Current Leader Board:
Josh Kennedy (WCE) – 39
Jack Riewoldt (RICH) – 37
Jarryd Roughead (HAW) – 36
Lindsay Thomas (NM) – 35
Travis Cloke (COLL) – 34
Jeremy Cameron (GWS) – 33
Nick Riewoldt (STK) – 33
Lance Franklin (HAW) – 33
Tom Hawkins (GEEL) – 32
The Favourites:
JOSH KENNEDY (WCE) – $3.50
The clubhouse Coleman Medal leader with 39 goals and he is easily the most consistent forward of the year. Averaging 3.5 goals a game and has produced against all opposition. The injury history is the only real worry.
JACK RIEWOLDT (RICH) – $4.50
He has been playing a more team orientated role in 2013, but he has still managed to kick 37 goals. The already dual Coleman Medallist has the runs on the board. Richmond has a great run home and he’ll definitely finish in the top 3.
LANCE FRANKLIN (HAW) – $5.00
Buddy’s form has been a major topic of discussion, especially now the GWS rumours are growing further legs. His form has improved over the last month and is only six goals behind Josh Kennedy. He shares a packed forward line with Roughead and Gunston, but can make up ground quickly. He is great value.
JARRYD ROUGHEAD (HAW) – $6.00
He is having an outstanding season and in All Australian calculations for his ability to go into the ruck. He has kicked 24 goals since round 7, easily the most of any other player during that time. Hawthorn’s structure will determine how many goals he can kick. If they decide to go one ruckman less, Roughead obviously spends more time up the field. There are better options in my opinion.
TRAVIS CLOKE (COLL) – $9.00
Cloke looks like a new man this year and appears to have a weight off his shoulders after constant contractual speculation last season. He is the main target at Collingwood and with 7 games at the MCG, he must be considered.
TOM HAWKINS (GEEL) – $14.00
Hawkins has been struggling with a lower back issue since the start of the season and has been limited to playing deep in the forward 50. His agility has obviously suffered from the injury, but he has still managed to kick clutch goals. He is an interesting price with 6 Simonds Stadium games to come.
LINDSAY THOMAS (NM) – $21.00
Thomas is easily the most consistent small forward of the season with 35 goals. He had an average of 3.2 goals a game before his goalless effort against Fremantle, which was right up there with the best. It is just a question of whether he can sustain such high numbers. Juicy price, but I can’t see him winning.
Prediction:
I love the form of Josh Kennedy. He already has a two goal lead despite missing a game.
Value selection:
Lance Franklin. He won’t blow out any further than $5.00 and can make up ground quickly. He is worth a flutter.
RISING STAR AWARD (RON EVANS MEDAL)
Many consider this as a full gone conclusion and I tend to agree. Jaeger O’Meara is the clear standout and his $1.40 favouritism is justifiable. The numbers are defining, averaging 21.9 disposals a game at 70.7% efficiency and having a real influence to the Gold Coast Suns stark improvement. Tom Mitchell, Joe Daniher and Nick Vlastuin are making late charges, but are disadvantaged having not played from the beginning of the season like O’Meara has. Ollie Wines began the season on fire but has tired recently.
At this point in time it is only a question of whether O’Meara receives the full 45 votes or not. $1.40 is very short, but it is the only value you are going to get in this market.
ALL AUSTRALIAN TEAM
B: Andrew Walker Scott Thompson Michael Hibberd
HB: Pearce Hanley Harry Taylor Jarrad McVeigh
C: Kieren Jack Jobe Watson Ryan Griffen
HF: Steve Johnson Nick Riewoldt Patrick Dangerfield
F: Lindsay Thomas Josh Kennedy Jarryd Roughead
R: Will Minson Dan Hannebery Gary Ablett
INT: Jake Carlise Scott Pendlebury Travis Boak Michael Barlow
There are no markets or rewards for getting this correct but it does generate some interesting conversation. The obvious observation is that there are no Richmond players and I’m sure the Tigers supporters are going to be quick to point that out. Dustin Martin, Brett Deledio and Bachar Houli were all considered, but it is more an indication of how evenly spread the Richmond output has been this season.
There are always two or three that could have been easily included or swapped. Some of those players include Travis Cloke, Chad Wingard, Nathan Fyfe, Mathew Stokes, Todd Goldstein, Garrick Ibbotson, Luke McPharlin, Grant Birchall and the above Richmond players.
Anyone wanting to ask a question in regards to individual player Brownlow votes, share an opinion about the above All Australian team or anything else from this piece, please don’t hesitate to drop a tweet to @afl_theprofits (Rover). I look forward to hearing from you.
THE AUTHOR
I’ve been a passionate supporter and follower of AFL for as long as I can remember. Having been born into a family with deep football history and tradition on both sides, you can say it runs through my blood. I’ve got a keen interest in the stats and analysis of the game, which helped me finish in the top 100 of fantasy competitions DreamTeam and Supercoach last year. While my own local football career was cut short due to injury at 22, it has created an opportunity for me to frequently watch and build a deep knowledge of the sport at its highest level. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and views throughout the season.
