Welcome to the Round 4 AFL preview. Round 3 went pretty much as planned as form lines begin to take shape. Adelaide, Sydney, Fremantle, Hawthorn and Essendon all continued their impressive starts to the season, while Carlton, Brisbane and Gold Coast remain winless after three games. The Premiership market is dominated by Hawthorn, Sydney and Fremantle in that order, while Port Adelaide are hanging in on the fourth line at $8.00. The biggest mover though has been Adelaide, shortening to $13.00 on the back on three strong victories. A comfortable win against the Dogs could see the Crows within the $10.00 mark.
Round 4 is highlighted by the traditional Essendon vs Collingwood Anzac Day clash, but with the day of remembrance falling on a Saturday this year, there are four other matches to enjoy. The Saturday night matches in particular are high quality, with Port Adelaide hosting Hawthorn and Fremantle taking on Sydney, replays of important 2014 Finals encounters. All favourites are priced between $1.27 and $1.64 this week, indicating punters are confident but not exactly settled on the upcoming results. It is sure to be an interesting group of games.
BEST BET
Hawthorn @ the -7.5 line
RICHMOND ($1.30) VS MELBOURNE ($3.65)
AT THE MCG, FRIDAY 24/04, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R9 2014 Richmond 9.20 (74) lost to Melbourne 14.7 (91) at the MCG
Line: Tigers -22.5, Dees +22.5
What do we make of the Richmond annihilation of the out of form Lions? It was a classic tease from the Tigers, who quickly made everyone forget it should be undefeated after three rounds of football. There were encouraging signs though, including the high class performances of Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin. Neither had been terrible in the opening two rounds collectively, but we did get to witness just how dangerous the Tigers are when both perform near their bests. Unfortunately Chris Knight’s has fallen to injury yet again in his first game back, sustaining a serious hamstring. Brett Deledio will miss at least one more game, while Chaplin and Newman are also absent through injury.
Melbourne wouldn’t be overly disappointed with the effort against the inform Crows, being competitive for a majority of the day and statistically matching Adelaide in most areas. The thing that Paul Ross would be most pleased with was its aggression. The Dees have developed a reputation of being push overs in recent times, but you couldn’t say that on Saturday. Bernie Vince led the way against his old side, infuriating his great mate Patrick Dangerfield at times. A bit of tough love and unsociable behaviour could be a key ingredient for this side.
The Tigers must take advantage of its soft first month and be 3-1. It only gets harder for them from here. Melbourne proved it can cause an upset last year.
RICHMOND TO WIN BY 17 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Heritier Lumumba Most Possessions Group 2 @ $8.00
ST KILDA ($3.05) VS CARLTON ($1.39)
AT WESTPAC STADIUM, WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND, SATURDAY 25/04, 11:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R16 2014 Carlton 24.7 (151) dftd St Kilda 10.6 (66) at ES
Line: Saints +19.5, Blues -19.5
After such promising results against the two expansions sides to start the season, the Saints showed that it is still vulnerable to a thumping as we saw numerous times in 2014. The Saints just allowed Collingwood to enter its defensive 50 far too many times, ending with a differential of -35. It led to the Pies having 35 shots at goal on the back of 21 inside 50 marks. The Saints were without its two most experienced players in Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Montagna and unfortunately they’ll be absent yet again for the trip to Wellington.
Carlton produced one of the more bizarre statistical anomalies of the season to date. It absolutely dominated the stoppages and contested ball against Essendon, winning 23 more clearances and 43 more contested possessions. Winning the ball first is a high priority of every coach in the competition, but if you aren’t going to use the ball on the outside and provide the required defensive pressure, you are fighting an uphill battle. When the opposition gathers 261 uncontested possessions and only 42 tackles are laid, the players plain and simply aren’t working hard enough. Yarran misses through suspension, after a brainless hit on Paul Chapman, while Chris Judd is also a confirmed nonstarter.
The Blues have a great chance to get off the mark with the Saints missing Riewoldt and Montagna, but they do have their own injury issues. The Blues should win, but you just never know.
CARLTON TO WIN BY 15 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Patrick Cripps Most Possessions Group 2 @ $7.00
ESSENDON ($1.40) VS COLLINGWOOD ($2.95)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 25/04, 14:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R17 2014 Essendon 16.7 (103) dftd Collingwood 5.9 (39) at MCG
Line: Dons -16.5, Pies +16.5
The Bombers good form continues to impress everyone as it easily defeated Carlton at the MCG. The final 21 point margin didn’t quite justify the dominance of Essendon, as the Blues outscored the red and black by 18 points in the final quarter to confirm that the players still aren’t quite running out the games 100%. In saying that, the amount of running the Bombers were left to do on the outside was mind boggling as it had 83 more uncontested possessions and operated at an extremely high 78%. Unfortunately for the Bombers new recruit Adam Cooney will miss the massive ANZAC Day clash with a hamstring injury. Zaharakis is also in doubt.
Collingwood produced what might end up being a confidence boosting win against the Saints, romping home to an impressive 74 point result. Some key players appear to be hitting form at the right time, as Dane Swan and Travis Cloke produced performances reminiscent on its Grand Final years. Swan gathered 39 possessions including 27 kicks, 3 goal assists and 7 clearances, while Cloke kicked a bag of 5 goals despite technique problems. Taylor Adams is expected to return to the side.
The most hyped home and away game of the season has been won by Collingwood four of the last five times, but I feel the tide has changed. Essendon are putting together some scintillating performances and running the minutes out better with each match. The halftime line of -8.5 looks good value.
ESSENDON TO WIN BY 29 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Essendon Halftime Line @ -8.5 points
GWS ($1.43) VS GOLD COAST ($2.90)
AT STARTRACK OVAL, SATURDAY 25/04, 17:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R6 2014 Gold Coast 20.14 (134) dftd GWS Giants 13.16 (94) at MS
Line: GWS -15.5, Suns +15.5
GWS have started the season in impressive fashion, despite going down to big brother Sydney on the weekend. Australian Rules footy is full optimistic ifs, buts and maybes, but had the Giants kicked straight in the first half against the Swans, a win was there for the taking. The fact of the matter is that you don’t deserve to win a game if you kick 13 behinds in a half, but it did match the Swans in most statistical areas. The Giants started the second half with four consecutive goals to get within 14 points, before the experienced Swans settled and got the margin out to 39 points at three quarter time.
Gold Coast really missed an opportunity to defeat Geelong at Simonds Stadium on Sunday. The Suns led the inside 50 count 67-52, won the contested possessions 165-152, won the clearance count 54-40, but constantly missed golden opportunities in front of goal. On top of those advantages, Geelong became depleted when Jimmy Bartel, Mathew Stokes and Tom Lonergan couldn’t take any further part in the game after injury, while Tom Hawkins was a late withdrawal. Rodney Eade will be happy with the improvement, but he should have his first win on the board as Gold Coast coach.
This is one of the more important games Canberra would have hosted. GWS are threatening to overtake the Suns, which should provide nice drama. It is impossible to go against the Giants on recent form lines.
GWS TO WIN BY 25 POINTS
No Suggested Bet
PORT ADELAIDE ($2.30) VS HAWTHORN ($1.64)
AT ADELAIDE OVAL, SATURDAY 25/04, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: PF 2014 Hawthorn 15.7 (97) dftd Port Adelaide 13.16 (94) at the MCG
Line: Port +7.5, Hawks -7.5
The Port Adelaide faithful breathed a massive sigh of relief after registering its first win of the season against North Melbourne. Had it lost, the highly rated Power faced the prospect of being 0-5 with fixtures against Hawthorn and Adelaide to come. After being ranked in the top seven for both contested and uncontested possessions in 2014, Ken Hinkley appears to have tinkered with his game plan. Port now finds itself the number one uncontested team in the league averaging 270.3 per game, but the contested ball has plummeted to be ranked 18th. Ollie Wines is a massive loss based on this alone and will sit out 4-6 weeks with a wrist injury. Polec and White are also in doubt. Matthew Lobbe has been named to play his first game of the year.
Hawthorn bounced back superbly to the loss against Essendon with a comprehensive 70 point win against the Western Bulldogs. The Hawks racked up a ridiculous 478 possessions which saw Hodge end with 44, Lewis 41, Smith 36 and Roughead 28 including 7 goals. They are purely insane numbers and proved that the Dogs had no answer to the reigning Premiers dominance. The Hawks have shortened to $3.30 to win a third consecutive premiership and will be strengthened further with the return of Brad Hill from concussion.
Hawthorn look outstanding value here whether it be at the line or head to head. Port Adelaide were brilliant against the Hawks on both occasions last year, but the current contested deficiencies are a concern. Those contested numbers have been dented by games against Sydney and Fremantle, but Port do come up against midfield quality yet again. The loss of Ollie Wines means someone must stand up at the stoppages.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 34 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Hawthorn @ the -7.5 line
FREMANTLE ($1.64) VS SYDNEY ($2.30)
AT DOMAIN STADIUM, SATURDAY 25/04, 20:45
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: QF 2014 Sydney 13.15 (93) dftd Fremantle 10.9 (69) at ANZ
Line: Freo -7.5, Swans +7.5
Fremantle continue to prove that it is one of the main contenders after a first half against West Coast that made everyone stand up and take notice. I’m now convinced it possesses the best midfield in the game, not only for its contested prowess, but also the class and decision making with ball in hand. Nathan Fyfe’s kicking has been bagged constantly after the 2013 Grand Final and it isn’t justified. We have always known David Mundy is a superb user of the ball, while the Dockers look to get the ball in Stephen Hill’s hands at any opportunity for good reason. The recent form of Lachie Neale has strengthened this area further.
The Swans were given a minor fright by the Giants at the start of the second half, but the experienced players stepped up to ensure GWS had no chance of stealing victory in the final quarter. Academy draftee Isaac Heeney was outstanding with four goals to shorten in Rising Star favouritism, while Buddy Franklin looks on the brink of tearing a game apart with 5 goals, 5 behinds. The biggest concern for Sydney was losing the contested possession 123-136 against the Giants, a statistic it really needs to win against Fremantle. All Australian Nick Smith returns.
I realise we have the most popular home and away game of the season earlier in the day, but this is game of the round for mine. Both sides undefeated, both sides genuine premiership contenders and both sides possessing brilliant midfields. Freo have the home advantage and the better form.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 12 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Total Match Points Over 167.5
BRISBANE ($2.75) VS WEST COAST ($1.45)
AT THE GABBA, SUNDAY 26/04, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R17 2014 Brisbane Lions 9.10 (64) lost to West Coast 11.10 (76) at the Gabba
Line: Lions +17.5, Eagles -17.5
Queensland is currently in a sorry state AFL wise as both sides sit bottom three without a win between them. Brisbane is probably the worst performed side in the competition, getting comprehensively beaten by three sides it would have considered itself a chance against at the start of the season. Yes, we know injuries have hurt, but it is no excuse for consecutive 14 goal losses. The kicking skills have been atrocious and the intensity is very low. Tom Rockliff is a massive inclusion for the Lions and has been missed.
West Coast were hit by a purple steam train in the opening 35 minutes of the Derby as Fremantle kicked 11 unanswered goals to start and blow the match apart. To the Eagles credit, it could have just laid down and let the Dockers break record after record. They did fight back to make the scoreboard look respectable, kicking six goals to one in the final quarter. Adam Simpson would be disgusted to let the Dockers operate at a crazy 83% from 416 possessions, but the game intensity cooled early after the Fremantle early dominance. The last thing West Coast needed was an injury to Jeremy McGovern, but the inform defender could be right to play after being subbed off with a knee complaint.
West Coast have a good record at the Gabba, winning three of the last four encounters there. It should be too strong against the hapless Lions.
WEST COAST TO WIN BY 20 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Tom Rockliff First Goalscorer @ $17.00
GEELONG ($2.35) VS NORTH MELBOURNE ($1.60)
AT SIMONDS STADIUM, SUNDAY 26/04, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: SF 2014 Geelong 13.14 (92) lost to North Melbourne 14.14 (98) at the MCG
Line: Cats +8.5, North -8.5
You could see the relief on the faces of Chris Scott and his players after Geelong registered its first win of the season, a result that looked in danger numerous times throughout the afternoon. Game ending injuries to Jimmy Bartel, Mathew Stokes and Tom Lonergan were bad enough, but only 78 interchanges for the day meant the Cats rotations were also restricted. In their absence, skipper Joel Selwood stood up to produce an individual effort that may not be bettered this season. Despite Geelong yet again losing the contested ball and clearance numbers, Selwood singlehandedly controlled the stoppages collecting 23 contested possessions and 12 clearances from his 38 disposals. Bartel, Mackie and Lonergan are confirmed outs, while Stokes and Hawkins both remain in doubt.
Based on its entirety, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide played in arguably the game of the year to date. The Kangaroos didn’t come home with the points, but couldn’t be disappointed with the effort. It is very rare that you see a game so tight statistically and on the scoreboard throughout a whole game like the encounter on Saturday night. While Petrie and Brown were good, Brad Scott would have been disappointed Jarrad Waite couldn’t back up his 7 goal haul. Jack Ziebell has been named but is in doubt following two nights in hospital due to bruised lungs, while Daniel Wells is still recovering from injury.
Like the Suns did, I doubt North Melbourne will miss this opportunity to defeat Geelong at Simonds Stadium with so many key players missing. The Roos always match up well against Geelong, despite not always getting the points.
NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 24 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
North Melbourne to win 1-39 points @ $2.25
WESTERN BULLDOGS ($3.75) VS ADELAIDE ($1.27)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 26/04, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R6 2014 Western Bulldogs 12.11 (83) lost to Adelaide 13.14 (92) at ES
Line: Dogs +24.5, Crows -24.5
The Western Bulldogs were on the receiving end of an almighty reality check against Hawthorn, going down by 70 points. The Dogs were hurt early by injuries to Dale Morris and Mitch Wallis, who will both miss the game against Adelaide. Thankfully Marcus Bontempelli and Matthew Boyd will return to the side this week after missing from soreness. There were minimal positives to take out of the game, but there was a quick look into the future as Tom Boyd monstered Brian Lake multiple times. The 2013 number one draft pick finished with three goals in his best AFL display yet.
Adelaide continued its outstanding start to the season with a comfortable 25 point win against Melbourne to remain on top of the ladder for the second consecutive week. It was a team performance that coach Phil Walsh praised, highlighting individual efforts from the likes of David Mackay and recognising the sides 108 tackles. One thing he didn’t like though was the tagging tactics used against Patrick Dangerfield by former Crow Bernie Vince, which is now something he’ll have to get used to more often.
Impossible to back against the Crows in this form, they’ll deal with the young Dogs comfortably.
ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 22 POINTS
No Suggested Bet
