Welcome to the Round 3 AFL preview. There has only been two rounds of footy and already there are opinions changing on certain teams. As usual, the focus is firmly on those sitting at the bottom end of the ladder. There is already talk that Mick Malthouse won’t see out the season (which has seen Carlton publicly respond), while it is now assumed that Geelong has begun its slide into the abbess. Then there are sides like Port Adelaide and Gold Coast, who came into the season with high expectations. Port has come up against two very good sides, but the Suns have minimal excuses when losing to both Melbourne and St Kilda. Every round there are new big statements to be made, both by teams on the field and also the easily influenced media. Don’t expect the ladder to look anything like it is now in ten weeks time.
BEST BET
Essendon -7.5 Second Quarter Line @ $1.91
COLLINGWOOD ($1.40) VS ST KILDA ($3.05)
AT THE MCG, FRIDAY 17/04, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R11 2014 St Kilda 8.6 (54) lost to Collingwood 21.14 (140) at ES
Line: Pies -17.5, Saints +17.5
Nathan Buckley just can’t take a trick as injury concerns are already threatening to derail the start of Collingwood’s season. After being without Steele Sidebottom, Levi Greenwood, Brent Macaffer, Clinton Young and Ben Reid, Pies fans got the fright of their lives when Scott Pendlebury and Taylor Adams were restricted to light training on Wednesday morning. Pendlebury is likely to take his place, but Adams has to be in doubt considering he was wearing a moonboot. Both have been named. Collingwood were particularly smashed in the midfield against the Crows and can’t afford its depth to be tested any further after losing the clearance count 29-45.
Many people didn’t expect the Saints to be competitive against GWS and Gold Coast in the opening rounds, let alone finish up with points. The Saints were far more efficient and dangerous on the outside against the Suns, moving the ball quickly to ensure the likes of Bruce and Riewoldt had one on one contests. Bruce had a breakout game, taking 8 marks and kicking 6 goals. David Armitage also appears to have taken the next step with 36 possessions at 83.3% efficiency, 19 of which were contested.
Wait for the final teams of this game. If Pendlebury and Adams don’t get up, the Saints chances rise significantly.
COLLINGWOOD TO WIN BY 19 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Most Disposals Gr1 David Armitage @ $5.00
CARLTON ($4.60) VS ESSENDON ($1.20)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 18/04, 13:45
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R23 2014 Carlton 14.6 (90) drew Essendon 13.12 (90) at the MCG
Line: Blues +31.5, Bombers -31.5
Boy are the Blues and Mick Malthouse under some pressure. Carlton were completely outplayed against West Coast and it was an effort that deserved significant scrutiny. If the 69 point margin wasn’t ugly enough reading, the statistical data was. Carlton was beaten in nearly every single key performance indicator you can think of. Disposals, contested possession, tackles, inside 50s, hit outs, disposal efficiency and worst of all clearances. Nic Naitanui was left to tap the ball where he pleased which saw the Blues register a -18 clearance differential. Marc Murphy has had a horrible start to the season, but needs help all the same. Andrew Walker returns for his first game of the season.
It is a completely different story for the Bombers who managed to defeat the reigning premiers by two points in a classic. Much like the week before, the Bombers got a fast start kicking seven of the first eight goals of the game. As expected, the Hawks came back and when Luke Breust kicked a goal at the 19 minute mark of the final quarter to open up a 16 point lead, everyone assumed the result was done. No one told this gutsy Essendon side that though as it kicked the last three goals of the game to prove to everyone that endurance is no longer an issue. Essendon have been more than competitive against two premiership fancies, is it now a sneaky contender itself?
These two teams drew in Round 23 last year, but don’t expect the contest to be that close this time around. Carlton have looked ok until the second quarter, when it has borderline capitulated. Considering how strong the red and black have been in the first half, the -7.5 Essendon second quarter line @ $1.91 looks outstanding value. The Bombers look hungry.
ESSENDON TO WIN BY 48 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Essendon -7.5 Second Quarter Line @ $1.91
ADELAIDE ($1.08) VS MELBOURNE ($8.00)
AT ADELAIDE OVAL, SATURDAY 18/04, 14:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R7 2014 Adelaide 9.13 (67) lost to Melbourne 11.4 (70) at AO
Line: Crows -45.5, Dees +45.5
Are Adelaide the most impressive team of the opening two rounds? The Crows are currently top three for disposals, contested possession, marks inside 50, clearances, inside 50s and points scored after two games of footy. The performance up to three quarter time against Collingwood was near flawless as it led by 56 points. While Adelaide conceded six goals to one in the final quarter, the damage was already done. Phil Walsh’s men completely dismantled the Pies midfield, especially at the stoppages where it had a +16 clearance differential. Adelaide are now arguably the best side in the competition to watch. Brodie Smith needs to pass a concussion test to play.
Everything appeared to be going so well for the Demons as it led by 33 points at the 28 minute mark of the second quarter. From here, a likely looking win became an absolute horror movie. Cam McCarthy kicked a goal just before half time to bring the margin to 27 points at the break, but no one could predict what happened next. The Giants piled on 9 goals to nothing in the third quarter and it didn’t stop there as the goal streak eventually ended at 14 when Ben Newton kicked his second. Paul Roos didn’t have any answers for the second half capitulation, but the effort of the players must be questioned also. Jack Viney has unfortunately fractured his leg and will miss multiple weeks.
The second half for Melbourne was as big of a mental blow as a club could take. It must reclaim that Round 1 confidence or potentially be part of a massacre at Adelaide Oval. A replay of the 2014 Round 7 win could help.
ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 53 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Over 172.5 Total Points
SYDNEY ($1.12) VS GWS ($6.50)
AT THE SCG, SATURDAY 18/04, 16:35
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R15 2014 Sydney 15.16 (106) dftd GWS Giants 8.12 (60) at the SCG
Line: Swans -39.5, Gaints +39.5
Being undefeated this early in the season isn’t something the Swans or its supporters will be used to, but it certainly is a pleasant surprise. Beating Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval is a massive scalp this early in the season, especially considering they could both be fighting for a top two position at the end of the home and away rounds. Sydney didn’t dominate any particular statistical area, but it was far more efficient going forward. Despite the 48 point result, the Swans had ten less inside 50s than Port Adelaide. It is a bizarre count, but it really gives an indication of the pressure Sydney created in its back two thirds. It is no surprise to see the Swans won the tackle count 76-52. Adam Goodes has been dropped after two below par performances.
During moments of the second quarter, it appeared that things could really get nasty for GWS against Melbourne. Then from nowhere, everything just clicked. It saw the Giants kick a record 14 goals consecutively, including nine in a dominant third quarter. The GWS midfield took the game by the throat, as Ward, Shiel, Coniglio, Greene, Treloar, Griffen, Shaw and Kelly all gathered 23+ disposals, more than any individual Melbourne player. The class was on show for all to see and there are suggestions that it could have passed the Suns development wise.
Sydney are a completely different opponent for the Giants. It can’t afford to be giving up 33 point deficits against its crosstown rival.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 23 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Sydney 1-39 @ $2.40
BRISBANE ($2.65) VS RICHMOND ($1.48)
AT THE GABBA, SATURDAY 18/04, 19:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R16 2014 Richmond 12.7 (79) dftd Brisbane Lions 7.12 (54) at the MCG
Line: Lions +13.5, Tigers -13.5
After so much hype during the offseason with the new recruits and dangerous midfield, Brisbane have been nothing more than underwhelming. The loss of captain Tom Rockliff and the run of Pearce Hanley is significant, but it must produce greater output than it did against North Melbourne. The 82 point margin is bad enough, but apart from Jack Redden, the much discussed midfield strength was next to non-existent. The defensive effort was a worry too, as a club really should be registering far more than 55 tackles when an opponent has had over 400 possessions. Collingwood and North have moved the ball fast and long with minimal pressure, which has exposed an inexperienced Brisbane defence.
There is no guaranteed result in the AFL these days, but Richmond would have banked a Round 2 win at the start of the season against the Dogs. Had you looked at the statistics post game and not the score, you would have been sure that Richmond had won. +77 for disposals, +18 contested possession, +58 contested possession, +1% disposal efficiency, 17-7 marks inside 50, +2 clearances and +6 inside 50s. But the Tigers were preyed upon by the young Dogs who had 22 more effective tackles, including 10 inside its forward 50. Richmond just can’t be losing these games if it wants a less stressful run to September in 2015. Brett Deledio is still battling a calf injury after missing due to suspension last week.
Hard to confidently pick either side, but at least Richmond have looked solid in patches. It certainly possesses more depth forward and back.
RICHMOND TO WIN BY 12 POINTS
No Suggested Bet
NORTH MELBOURNE ($2.13) VS PORT ADELAIDE ($1.75)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 18/04, 19:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R3 2014 North Melbourne 14.13 (97) dftd Port Adelaide 13.12 (90) at ES
Line: North +4.5, Port -4.5
After such a disappointing result in Adelaide the week before, North Melbourne couldn’t have responded in better style with a crashing win against Brisbane. The Roos showed the football world just how dangerous its new forward line can be as Jarrad Waite played arguably the best game of his 186 game career, only his second at North. The former Carlton forward booted an equal career high 7 goals, while also clunking 12 marks, 5 of which were contested. He also got up the ground to gather 22 disposals and give off two goal assists. It was a near 10 out of 10 performance. Unfortunately Nick Dal Santo has sustained a very serious hamstring injury that could see him on the sidelines for up to 3 months.
Ken Hinkley would very disappointed that his side went down to Sydney by 48 points, as it wasn’t as if Port Adelaide didn’t produce enough chances. The Power gathered 438 disposals and 62 inside 50s, numbers that are rarely associated with any losing side let alone an eight goal margin. The likes of Westhoff and Schulz had double figure mark tallies and nine inside 50 marks isn’t a total disgrace, but Port just couldn’t make things work. I’m not overly concerned with Port Adelaide like some, they just appear to be taking some time to click again. I doubt it has much to do with their game plan being tested, like some have suggested. In saying that, it has only won 6 of its last 16 matches. Still no Lobbe to support Ryder in the ruck against Goldstein, which could be match defining.
Dal Santo has become a key player for North Melbourne, depleting some class with ball in hand which could be the difference in a tight encounter like this. Port Adelaide aren’t far off making things work and I feel it will happen sooner rather than later. This is toss of the coin stuff.
NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 2 POINTS
Suggested Bet
North head to head @ $2.13 (Sportsbet Special)
HAWTHORN ($1.10) VS WESTERN BULLDOGS ($7.00)
AT AURORA STADIUM, SUNDAY 19/04, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R19 2014 Hawthorn 16.11 (107) dftd Western Bulldogs 6.9 (45) at AU
Line: Hawks -42.5, Dogs +42.5
Hawthorn looked to have the result comfortably in hand when Luke Breust slotted a goal to take the lead to 16 points at the 19 minute mark. Considering Essendon had only kicked two goals since the 23 minute mark of the second quarter and appeared to be on their last legs due to less than perfect preseason preparation, you can’t blame a side for becoming complacent. Little did it know that Essendon set had some fire in the belly and by the 27 minute mark, Hawthorn had remarkably lost its lead. A desperate lunge forward in the final seconds saw Breust running into an open goal when the siren blew, an indication that it just wasn’t meant to be the Hawks day. Mitchell and Gibson return for the Hawks, but new recruit James Frawley will be out for an extended period of time with a pectoral injury.
How fantastic has it been watching the determination of this young Western Bulldogs team? I genuinely believed the club may struggle to win four games for the season, yet here they are after two rounds sitting fifth on the ladder undefeated. Many have been drawn in by the attacking style of this Dogs side, but it is the defensive pressure that has made me stand up and take notice. The Dogs have laid 16 more tackles than any other side in the opening two rounds, averaging 83.5 per game. They are firstly desperate to win the footy and if they don’t, 100% effort is put in to get the ball back. This is a side lacking key experience and the kids are stepping up. The inform and newly signed Easton Wood misses with a hamstring.
The Dogs have been great, but backing up against a reigning premier coming off a tough loss is a completely different challenge. Watch Hawthorn flex its muscle in frustration.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 58 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Hawthorn @ -42.5 line
GEELONG ($1.16) VS GOLD COAST ($5.20)
AT SIMONDS STADIUM, SUNDAY 19/04, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R14 2014 Gold Coast 17.16 (118) dftd Geelong 11.12 (78) at MS
Line: Cats -36.5, Gold Coast +36.5
Everyone is wanting to write the Cats off after Round 2 and considering the results, it isn’t hard to see why. The contested possession and clearance troubles continue to haunt Geelong, ranking 18th in both categories after two rounds. In saying that, they have come up against arguably two of the best three midfields in the competition who thrive at the stoppages. Nathan Fyfe and David Mundy just monstered Geelong at the stoppages and then also operated at high efficiency rates. I hope Geelong aren’t waiting for Patrick Dangerfield to come solve all the stoppage issues, as he won’t have a bar of Corio Bay if he hasn’t got the support in the middle. Bartel, Rivers and Motlop will return, but Mackie again misses with that troublesome quad.
I genuinely can’t think of a worse football scenario than what Gold Coast has experienced to start a season. There was so much hope coming into the year with a potential debut finals campaign within reach. Then disaster struck. Loss to Melbourne, Jaeger O’Meara out injured for the season, loss to St Kilda, Gary Ablett out injured indefinitely. Talk about a mood killer. Rodney Eade wouldn’t be questioning his decision to become a senior coach again just yet, but he would certainly be wondering why the world is against him. Broughton, Harbrow and Hallahan also miss through injury.
Geelong have been bad, but Gold Coast have been far worse and now face the uncertainty of life without Gary for another few weeks. The Cats will open their 2015 account.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 55 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Geelong 40+ @ $1.99
WEST COAST ($3.50) VS FREMANTLE ($1.31)
AT DOMAIN STADIUM, SUNDAY 19/04, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R15 2014 Fremantle 13.10 (88) dftd West Coast 11.15 (81) at PS
Line: Eagles +20.5, Freo -20.5
West Coast needed to give its supporters some hope for 2015 and it did so with a comprehensive victory against Carlton by 69 points. Josh Kennedy was the star of the show against his old side, giving a little reminder that the Eagles have been just as successful out of the Judd trade. He kicked his third career double figure goal haul, slotting 10 against a hapless Carlton defence. Mark LeCras also fed on the exposed Carlton carcass booting four goals, while the likes of Priddis, Gaff and Shuey were dominant against Murphy, Judd and co. How long can the West Coast revival last though?
The form of Fremantle to begin the season suggests there are more than 2-3 sides in contention for the flag. The Dockers midfield is in frightening touch, especially the long haired fellow who wears the number 7 jumper. Nathan Fyfe was ridiculous against Geelong, gathering 36 disposals of which 25 were contested and he finished it off with 3 brilliant goals. I personally now rate Fyfe the best player in the competition with Ablett’s misfortunes and it appears the punters do to, as he has now shortened to $3.75 Brownlow favouritism. Hayden Ballantyne will be distraught missing a Derby through suspension.
There was once an opinion that it didn’t matter where the teams were placed on the ladder, a Derby is always a 50/50 bet. If it was ever true, it certainly isn’t now as Fremantle have won the last five encounters and taken complete control of the rivalry.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 36 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Fremantle @ -20.5 line
