Welcome to the Round 2 AFL preview. How nice was to have a Round 1 that wasn’t split in half and spread over numerous days? The weekend of matches carried momentum throughout the whole round, which was also helped by one of the more entertaining and competitive group of Round 1 games I can remember. Five games were decided by 12 points or less, while the Carlton vs Richmond and Melbourne vs Gold Coast encounters provided plenty of action for the neutral supporter. Let’s hope the AFL take note of the success of the 2015 opening round and ensure the format is replicated next season.
As we witnessed throughout Round 1, the Sportsbet head to head money back if your side leads at any change special is giving punters that extra flexibility to pick an outsider they may fancy. Five of the nine Round 1 matches saw the eventual losing side lead during at least one break. It saw plenty of money refunded and more importantly, we get the opportunity to take advantage of the special until Round 8. Be smart about what matches you use it on though, as it can have an influence on you overrating a team that really never had a chance of winning in the first place.
BEST BET
Adelaide @ the -12.5 line
WEST COAST ($1.50) VS CARLTON ($2.65)
AT DOMAIN STADIUM, FRIDAY 10/04, 20:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R6 2014 Carlton 14.8 (92) dftd West Coast 12.17 (89) at ES
Line: Eagles -12.5, Carlton +12.5
If a loss to the Western Bulldogs wasn’t enough, the loss of yet another key position defender to a season ending injury completed a nightmare Round 1 for West Coast. Mitch Brown won’t be seen again in 2015 after it was confirmed that the defender had ruptured his ACL. It has been an awful 12 months for the West Coast back six structure, firstly with Darren Glass retiring last year and now Mackenzie, Brown and Waters all succumbing to injury. It will be the first time since Round 15 2006 that the Eagles won’t have at least one of Glass, Mackenzie or Brown. Thankfully for the Eagles, Jeremy McGovern stepped up on Saturday taking 12 marks in defence to arguably be West Coast’s only positive of the night. The Eagles also lose Butler and Scott Selwood for the Friday night clash.
The Blues started Thursday night on fire against Richmond, leading by 23 points at the five minute mark of the second and threatening to pull away further. But the Tigers finally gathered momentum and ran away to a comfortable 27 point win. It wasn’t all doom and gloom for Carlton though as its far more direct game plan showed positive signs. Unfortunately the wretched run of Dale Thomas injuries continued, as a dislocated shoulder will keep the former Pie at for 6 weeks minimum.
Carlton don’t have the worst record at Domain against West Coast, winning three of the last five encounters there. Malthouse will go tall up forward with Casboult included to try and expose the Eagles defensive depth. I think Carlton are a sneaky chance with low confidence.
CARLTON TO WIN BY 3 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Carlton to win 1-39 @ $3.10
RICHMOND ($1.38) VS WESTERN BULLDOGS ($3.15)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 11/04, 13:45
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R3 2014 Western Bulldogs 15.10 (100) dftd Richmond 15.8 (98) at ES
Line: Tigers -19.5, Dogs +19.5
It took the Tigers a little bit of time to get into the groove against Carlton, but looked impressive once they did. The likes of Cotchin, Deledio and Martin barely had an influence on the game as the new faces of Kamdyn McIntosh and Taylor Hunt won plenty of the footy to be two of Richmond’s most valuable players on the night. Considering the usual stars were hardly sighted, it does suggest that the Tigers have plenty of scope for improvement. Brett Deledio will miss the game through suspension after his high hit on Simon White in the opening seconds of the game.
Admittedly I predicted the Western Bulldogs to finish on the bottom of the ladder, but after one round I’m already second guessing my original thoughts. The Dogs were one of the major positives of the round, mainly due to its younger players needing to step up and doing so successfully. There were young winners all over the ground from Jake Stringer kicking three up forward, Macrae, Jong, Wallis and Bontempelli winning plenty of footy through the middle, while Talia and Roughead played important roles down back. Luke Beveridge has taken over a young list that has been mentored by some great development coaches over the last couple of years and he appears to have brought further credentials that could really see this side blossom.
As impressive as the Dogs were last week, they come up against a far more structurally complete team in Richmond this week.
RICHMOND TO WIN BY 33 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Over 178.5 Total Points Line
GWS ($1.46) VS MELBOURNE ($2.70)
AT STARTRACK OVAL, CANBERRA, SATURDAY 11/04, 14:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R21 2014 Melbourne 3.16 (34) lost to GWS Giants 15.8 (98) at MCG
Line: Giants -15.5, Dees +15.5
There are some in the media stating that the Giants are capable of reaching the finals this year after its Round 1 performance, but was it really that good? Yes, GWS got off to a tidy start with a nine point victory against St Kilda, but it wasn’t as if it was coming up against a finals contender. The Giants midfield has been talked up during the preseason with the addition of Ryan Griffen, but he was well held to 15 disposals, while the Saints won both the contested and clearance counts. Everyone knows GWS will be a good side, but I fail to see the current excitement after a game it was expected to win.
Melbourne were the most impressive side of Round 1 in my opinion, based on expectations of course. This was the season that Gold Coast were going to jump up the ladder, but no one told Paul Roos and his men that. The Demons were in control of the match for a majority of the day and even managed to contain a Gary Ablett inspired fight back from the Suns late. The most encouraging thing to come out of the game was Melbourne’s willingness to score and attack, which resulted in the clubs first 100+ point total since Round 14 2013. After a strong focus on defence last year, scoring was always the next goal and Roos appears to have implemented some potentially successful ideas. Bernie Vince and Chris Dawes will play their first games of the season.
If this game was at the MCG, I’d be willing to back Melbourne. The memories of a Round 21 mauling from the Giants will still be present for both teams. The Giants should be too strong in Canberra.
GWS TO WIN BY 14 POINTS
No Suggested Bet
COLLINGWOOD ($2.60) VS ADELAIDE ($1.50)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 11/04, 16:35
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R18 2014 Collingwood 12.10 (82) lost to Adelaide 14.14 (98) at MCG
Line: Pies +12.5, Crows -12.5
Collingwood surprised me for a majority of Saturday night, as it led by as much as 53 points during the third quarter against Brisbane. The Pies were far more dominant in the middle particularly, constantly winning the footy first against a Lions midfield that looks impressive on paper. From there though I’m confused, as the Lions fought back to nearly run over Collingwood in the final quarter. The Pies were held goalless in the last quarter and I’m finding it difficult to work out whether Brisbane lifted its output or if Collingwood got heavy legs. The Pies are certainly going to be interesting viewing over the first few weeks. Steele Sidebottom is a massive loss and will miss 6-8 weeks with a broken thumb.
Adelaide produced the most eye catching performance of Round 1, destroying 2014 Preliminary Finalist North Melbourne by 77 points. After Phil Walsh had talked up the potential implementations defensively, it was again the Crows attacking flare that caught North Melbourne on the hop, kicking 21 goals from 63 forward 50 entrances. The new skipper Taylor Walker looks primed for his biggest season after kicking 6.5, taking 15 marks and gathering 22 disposals. He could have had enormous numbers had he converted some simple shots in the first half, but he was still easily the most influential player in the ground.
Adelaide have beaten Collingwood three times at Etihad in four encounters since 2005. Collingwood would much prefer to be playing at the MCG, even though Adelaide beat them there in Round 18 last year. The -12.5 line looks attractive, as does the over 182.5 points line.
ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 34 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Adelaide @ the -12.5 line
PORT ADELAIDE ($1.68) VS SYDNEY ($2.18)
AT ADELAIDE OVAL, SATURDAY 11/04, 19:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R20 2014 Port Adelaide 7.16 (58) lost to Sydney 12.12 (84) at AO
Line: Port -6.5, Swans +6.5
Ken Hinkley and his men will be extremely disappointed to have not come home with the points, after leading Fremantle at all breaks on Sunday night. While the Power only went down by 7 points, there were some statistical differentials that would have disgusted Hinkley. Port Adelaide lost the contested possessions 138-112, clearances 41-30 and inside 50s 58-42. If you produce such gaps in key statistics like those on a regular basis, you plain and simply won’t win many if any games of football. Those numbers must be improved upon, especially against a side like Sydney. Jarrad Redden has been brought into the side to partner the underdone Paddy Ryder with Matthew Lobbe still unavailable.
Sydney went into the Essendon encounter knowing that it would have the fresher legs in the fourth quarter, but it almost left its run too late. The Swans looked done when Adam Cooney got the margin out to 41 points entering time on in the third, but it would be the last goal Essendon would kick as the lack of match fitness started becoming a genuine issue. Beaten all day, a host of Swans stars came to life, including Buddy Franklin who finished with three goals. Jarrad McVeigh returns to the side.
Sydney beat Port Adelaide twice last year, but Port look the more conditioned side this early in the season. The Power will be looking to bounce back with a big scalp.
PORT ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 15 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Paddy Ryder first goal scorer @ $17.00
GOLD COAST ($1.18) VS ST KILDA ($4.90)
AT METRICON STADIUM, SATURDAY 11/04, 19:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R19 2014 Gold Coast 17.15 (117) dftd St Kilda 9.10 (64) at MS
Line: Suns -31.5, Saints +31.5
It certainly wasn’t the start to a new coaching career that Rodney Eade was expecting. After taking the reins of the Gold Coast Suns over the offseason, Eade went into his debut with high expectations and short favouritism. Without disrespecting the performance of Melbourne, Gold Coast were a flop. Ablett appeared in pain for a majority of the day before coming to life with multiple goals in the last quarter, Harley Bennell gathered 21 possessions with minimal influence, while half the side could only manage 13 possessions or less. Eade went out to the media agencies on Sunday with a clear message, the Suns won’t be playing finals football for two years. He is looking to lower the expectations of the Suns already, which isn’t a good sign for those who took their juicy top eight odds. Tom Lynch is a massive inclusion.
The Saints had to good hard crack at GWS on Sunday and nearly came home with the points. It had surprising statistic wins for contested possession and clearances, areas that GWS often thrive at. Unlike the Western Bulldogs, it was familiar senior players that led the charge for St Kilda, which must change as the season gets older. Nick Riewoldt suffered a nasty case of whiplash from an accidental Tomas Bugg hit, but should be fine to line up this weekend. Leigh Montagna misses with a knee injury.
The Suns must bounce back and show much more intent against St Kilda. It beat the Saints twice comfortably last year and should do so for a third consecutive time on Saturday night.
GOLD COAST TO WIN BY 46 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Gold Coast @ the -33.5 line
GEELONG ($1.96) VS FREMANTLE ($1.87)
AT SIMONDS STADIUM, SUNDAY 12/04, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R20 2014 Geelong 12.9 (81) dftd Fremantle 11.13 (79) at SS
Line: Cats -1.5, Dockers +1.5
Geelong fell to its biggest Round 1 loss in years after going down by 62 points against reigning premier Hawthorn. The Cats surprisingly won the first and fourth quarters, but in-between Hawthorn piled on 13.10 to Geelong’s 2.3 to blow the game apart. Once the ball entered the forward line with speed, Clark and Hawkins looked dangerous, but it just didn’t happen often enough. Yet again it all started at the stoppages, as Hawthorn dominated especially the contested possession count 144-114. Selwood had arguably his worst game for years, while youngsters Cockatoo, Lang and Gregson looked startled by the speed of the highest level. It isn’t anywhere near panic stations for the Cats, but wouldn’t want to lose first up at Simonds Stadium. Steven Motlop has been dropped for the game due to off-field disciplinary reasons, while Jimmy Bartel will be given until Sunday to recover from concussion. Andrew Mackie is back after being a late withdrawal against Hawthorn.
Fremantle proved on Sunday that it is still well and truly in contention for the Premiership with a hard fought victory against the highly rated Power. After trialling at all breaks of the match, there was a perception that Port Adelaide’s running ability would be too much. But it was Fremantle who looked to be running harder late, especially the midfielders. David Mundy was outstanding in the final term, gathering 13 disposals and a massive five clearances, while Pavlich converted two important set shots. The Dockers have some key players to return over the next month, so there is potential for further improvement.
Fremantle have been impressive the last two times at Simonds Stadium, winning the Qualifying Final in 2013 and going down by only two points last year with a missed shot after the siren. I expect Geelong to bounce back hard, but this will be extremely tight and I feel Fremantle can get up.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 8 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Fremantle to win 1-39 @ $2.35
ESSENDON ($4.40) VS HAWTHORN ($1.21)
AT THE MCG, SUNDAY 12/04, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R2 2014 Essendon 12.14 (86) lost to Hawthorn 13.12 (90) at ES
Line: Bombers +28.5, Hawks -28.5
I’m looking forward to what Essendon can produce once the legs get conditioned as they were outstanding for two and a half quarters. The Bombers looked home at the start of time on in the third as it led by 41 points in very heavy conditions. From there, the first signs of a tiring side began to appear and the body language didn’t improve much even after the three quarter time break. The final quarter was then a one horse show as Sydney piled on 7.4 to nothing, while also winning the contested possession count 53-33. Despite letting go of such a large lead, there were plenty of positives to take out of the game for Essendon. I’d expect James Hird to basically destroy that final quarter footage as it will become irrelevant with time this season.
Hawthorn made the biggest statement of Round 1 by completely dismantling its Easter rival Geelong to the tune of 62 points. It was a performance that suggested that there is still probably daylight between the best team in the competition and the second best, just as last year’s Grand Final result proved. A 35 disposal and likely three vote game has seen Jordan Lewis shorten to $18.00 for the Brownlow. In a side that will win lots of games and possesses minimal obvious vote attractors, the current role Lewis is playing could be extremely appealing to the umpires. Grant Birchall adds further strength to the Hawks best 22.
The Bombers could be competitive early again, but it needs more than one game to be match fit. The $1.80 -8.5 point Hawthorn final quarter line looks outstanding value.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 35 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Hawthorn -8.5 point Final Quarter Line @ $1.80
NORTH MELBOURNE ($1.20) VS BRISBANE ($4.50)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 12/04, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R15 2014 Brisbane Lions 10.10 (70) dftd North Melbourne 9.12 (66) at G
Line: North -34.5, Lions +34.5
North Melbourne were by far the most disappointing team of the Round 1 fixtures. So many have talked up the Roos as the next team below Hawthorn, Sydney and Port Adelaide, but they looked a bottom six side against the attacking style of the Crows. Brad Scott described the performance as “an indictment” and that isn’t an overreaction considering his side was annihilated in almost every statistic. Here are some handpicked ugly numbers: 63-47 inside 50s, 22-6 marks inside 50s, contested possession 142-115. The defenders were completely answerless to the dominance of Taylor Walker which resulted in Joel Tippett getting subbed extremely early. Did the players believe their own hype?
In what was a common trend throughout the opening round, Brisbane looked out of the game when facing a deficit of 53 points against Collingwood during the third term. Then everything seemed to click as the Lions kicked the final seven goals of the game to give the Pies a massive fright. Did Brisbane flick the switch or did Collingwood run out of puff? It is genuinely a difficult question as the midfield did lift its output, but the Pies looked flat. Rich was outstanding when thrown into the centre, kicking two clutch goals. Unfortunately the Lions will be without Tom Rockliff for 4-6 weeks after being hospitalised with broken ribs and a punctured lung. Daniel Merrett is also out with a hammy.
North Melbourne have plenty to prove, but it did develop a habit of losing to sides it shouldn’t have last year. Brisbane was one of those sides in Round 15, but North also had an 87 point win just 6 rounds earlier at Etihad Stadium.
NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 23 POINTS
No Suggested Bet
