Welcome to the Round 1 AFL Preview. After an offseason that had been relatively quiet, the off field footy news began to explode in March and unfortunately it was all for the wrong reasons. First came the news of the Ryan Crowley positive test and provisional suspension, followed by the similar stories of Collingwood’s Josh Thomas and Lachie Keeffe. There was once a time when the AFL could describe itself as the cleanest code in the land, but that is now impossible to justify.
Finally some good news came to the code on Tuesday, as the 34 past and present Essendon players were found not guilty of taking a banned substance. The long running saga came to what most hopes to be an end after the tribunal said it was “not comfortably satisfied” that the players had been administered the prohibited peptide Thymosin Beta-4. This means that the involved 21 or so currently listed AFL players are free to play this weekend. So let’s bring on the footy!
BEST BET
Port Adelaide to win head to head @ $2.05 (using Sportsbet lead at any break cash back special).
CARLTON ($2.50) VS RICHMOND ($1.54)
AT THE MCG, THURSDAY 02/04, 19:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R2 2014 Richmond 14.14 (98) dftd Carlton 12.14 (86) at the MCG
Line: Blues +11.5, Tigers -11.5
The Blues had an extremely disappointing 2014 season and will be looking to get off to a strong start with an upset victory against Richmond. Carlton could only manage the one victory over the preseason against Collingwood by 7 points, but it did show some promising signs against Geelong during the Round 4 NAB Challenge fixture. Malthouse looks to have abandoned his preferred game plan around the boundary as his side moved the ball through the centre far more often throughout the trial games. Andrew Walker and Matthew Kreuzer are both at least a couple of weeks off. Interestingly, Levi Casboult has been named an emergency, while Liam Jones, Kristian Jaksch and Clem Smith will play their first games for the club.
Richmond will be looking to take the momentum of a nine game winning streak late in 2014 into 2015, after the club snuck into the Finals. While the Tigers could only capture the one preseason victory, its form lines have improved the closer the season has got. Damien Hardwick goes into his sides Round 1 encounter with a near full list to choose from, which will see the final few positions fiercely contested. After an offseason where the club mostly brought in youngsters, the only new face in the Round 1 side is Taylor Hunt. Kamdyn McIntosh makes his debut after three years on the list, while Tyrone Vickery has been left out.
These two sides crossed over last season and are now heading in opposite directions. Richmond now have a side with decent depth, which should be enough to get over the Blues.
RICHMOND TO WIN BY 24 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Richmond 1-39 @ $2.20 (not best bet)
MELBOURNE ($2.95) VS GOLD COAST ($1.40)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 04/04, 13:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R5 2014 Melbourne 11.12 (78) lost to Gold Coast 11.20 (86) at the MCG
Line: Dees +15.5, Suns -15.5
Just when we thought there could be some improvement from Melbourne with more than respectable efforts in Round 2 and 3 of the NAB Challenge, it had a nightmare loss to an Essendon side that was topped up with a selection of state league players. It was only a two point loss, but the result is sure to have Paul Roos scratching his head in what was supposed Round 1 rehearsal. The scoring problems don’t appear to much better either, averaging just 62.33 points during the NAB Challenge. Positively, Melbourne supporters can look forward to seeing a group of new players in Round 1 including Lumumba, Garlett, Frost, number 3 draft pick Angus Brayshaw and the highly rated Jesse Hogan.
Is this the year that the Gold Coast Suns makes its Finals debut? It gets a great opportunity to start its season with a bang against Melbourne and will get the chance to do so with captain Gary Ablett on the field. There had been doubt the little champion mightn’t be ready, but Rodney Eade has stated that Ablett is the exception when playing players that are underdone. The Suns will have a slightly different forward structure with Lynch and Dixon not available, but it should still have enough scoring options.
If the Suns are a Finals contender like many of us think, this result will be inevitable.
GOLD COAST TO WIN BY 34 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Heritier Lumumba Most Possessions Group 2 @ $4.00
SYDNEY ($1.30) VS ESSENDON ($3.55)
AT ANZ STADIUM, SATURDAY 04/04, 16:35
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R19 2014 Sydney 11.13 (79) dftd Essendon 8.9 (57) at the SCG
Line: Swans -24.5, Dons +24.5
The Swans themselves have admitted that they have started a long way behind other teams, but John Longmire would be pleased with the preseason form. After being a long way off the mark against Brisbane, the final two NAB Challenge games saw it produce strong wins against Fremantle and GWS. Sydney were given a scare during the final practice game as Buddy Franklin suffered a nasty concussion after colliding with Gary Rohan, but he has been cleared to play Round 1. The Swans are in the strange situation of meeting a side that is full of players provisionally suspended for the NAB Challenge, so it will feel slightly unprepared for what to expect.
The Essendon players who have been involved in this long running drugs saga finally get an opportunity for some closure after being found not guilty. There are 18 or so players who haven’t been seen throughout the NAB Challenge, but that doesn’t mean they haven’t been working hard behind closed doors. Match fitness and implementing a new game plan will take time, so don’t expect the emotion driven results of 2013. It may take a good month or so before we start seeing the best of the Bombers. Adam Cooney makes his debut for the club.
The Swans are behind most sides after starting preseason later, but not the Bombers. It will have to encounter unpredictability, but I feel Sydney will get this done easily. The -24.5 point line should come into play.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 45 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Sydney @ the -24.5 line
WESTERN BULLDOGS ($2.60) VS WEST COAST ($1.50)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 04/04, 19:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R1 2014 West Coast 21.8 (134) dftd Western Bulldogs 11.3 (69) at PS
Line: Dogs +11.5, Eagles -11.5
It has been an offseason of complete change for the Western Bulldogs. It now has a new coach, a new game plan and a new captain to adjust to. The experience lost is significant too, with the likes of Ryan Griffen, Adam Cooney, Daniel Giansiracusa, Shaun Higgins and Tom Williams all deletions from the 2014 list. It now must rely on young players to step up and fill the void. The preseason results would have pleased Luke Beveridge, with wins against Richmond and Collingwood, but he knows the intensity will be lifted come Round 1. The loss of Tom Liberatore is enormous, weakening a midfield that was already battling for depth.
West Coast are a very difficult side assess, even more so now Eric Mackenzie and Beau Waters won’t be seen this year. The backline has copped an absolute belting during the offseason on top of the retirement of Darren Glass, while Mitch Brown and Will Schofield have had interrupted preseasons. To make matters worse, Jack Darling will be unavailable for at least the first month. The Eagles would be pleased to be playing the Dogs in Round 1 though, as the powerful forward line has generally dined out on the flimsy red, white and blue defence of past seasons.
I don’t have all that much faith in West Coast, but it should be far too strong through the midfield and offensively.
WEST COAST TO WIN BY 19 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Josh Kennedy to score 5 or more goals @ $4.00
BRISBANE ($1.53) VS COLLINGWOOD ($2.55)
AT THE GABBA, SATURDAY 04/04, 19:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R21 2014 Collingwood 8.8 (56) lost to Brisbane Lions 18.15 (123) at the MCG
Line: Lions -10.5, Pies +10.5
Brisbane come into the 2015 season with a midfield that is sure to have many supporters very excited. Dayne Beams and Allen Christensen are massive recruits for the Lions, while the return of Daniel Rich from injury creates further flexibility. Unfortunately a hip injury to Pearce Hanley means we won’t see him until the second half of the season, but there is now enough depth to at least cover his absence. Clearances were the major issue for Brisbane in recent seasons and while it was smashed by the Suns in that area during Round 4 of the NAB Challenge, it won the first two counts of the preseason.
Collingwood couldn’t have expected much worse news last Friday when it heard that two of its players had tested positive to the banned substance of clenbuterol. Josh Thomas and Lachie Keeffe have been provisionally suspended with their B samples to be tested later in the month. Thomas was well and truly in the frame to play Round 1, while Keeffe had been battling with a hamstring injury. It just topped off a disappointing preseason for the Pies after a serious ankle injury to new recruit Levi Greenwood, not to mention some poor on field results, highlighted by a 61 point loss to the Dogs in Round 4 of the NAB Challenge. Travis Varcoe, Jack Crisp and top five draftee Jordan de Goey make their debuts for the club.
It wasn’t all that long ago that the Lions destroyed an undermanned Collingwood side in Round 21 last year. Brisbane were the only undefeated side of the NAB Challenge and I expect that form will continue against Collingwood.
BRISBANE TO WIN BY 22 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Alex Fasolo first goal scorer @ $20.00
ST KILDA ($3.15) VS GWS ($1.36)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 05/04, 13:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R2 2014 St Kilda 15.5 (95) dftd GWS Giants 13.10 (88) at ES
Line: Saints +17.5, Giants -17.5
After finishing the 2014 season so poorly, there are minimal expectations for St Kilda in 2015. It possesses an extremely young list that needs time to develop. The preseason results were disappointing as it could only defeat a weakened Essendon line-up and was slaughtered by Hawthorn during Round 4 of the NAB Challenge with a side not close to its best 22. Unfortunately the Saints have also been hit with a slight hamstring epidemic as Farren Ray, Jack Billings and Seb Ross will miss the start of the season, while Shane Savage was in a race against time to be fit for Round 1.
The Giants are a year older and have added key experience to the ranks for season 2015. Ryan Griffen and Joel Patful will play their first games for the Giants, after successful careers at the Western Bulldogs and Brisbane Lions respectively. Jeremy Cameron looks fit and ready after kicking 5 goals against the Swans during Round 4 of the NAB Challenge, while Cam McCarthy has offered impressive support. The Giants finished the NAB Challenge with the equal most wins and was competitive throughout all matches. Could GWS be primed for a giant jump up the ladder?
The Giants look up and about for Round 1. The best 22 is near full strength and I can’t see St Kilda coming close to matching them through the middle.
GWS TO WIN BY 48 POINTS
Suggested Bet
GWS to win by 40+ points @ $3.40
ADELAIDE ($1.65) VS NORTH MELBOURNE ($2.25)
AT ADELAIDE OVAL, SUNDAY 05/04, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R22 2014 North Melbourne 14.17 (101) dftd Adelaide 13.16 (94) at BA
Line: Crows -7.5, North Melbourne +7.5
Adelaide were arguably the form side of the NAB Challenge, knocking off two 2014 Preliminary Finalists, while also pushing Geelong at Simonds Stadium. Most sides aren’t overly concerned with preseason results, but new coach Phil Walsh will be talking up the NAB Challenge form and looking to turn it into Round 1 success. Unfortunately the Crows do go into Round 1 with midfield worries, after Brad Crouch suffered a serious foot injury that will see him out for up to two months. Scott Thompson has also lost his race against time for Round 1 with a hamstring.
North Melbourne has also had a promising preseason after reaching a Preliminary Final from the bottom four of the eight in 2014. The Roos have had solid wins against Hawthorn and Richmond, further enhancing its reputation as a top four contender. New free agent recruits Shaun Higgins and Jarrad Waite appear to have adapted to the structure flawlessly during the preseason and are sure to have an impact forward of the centre. North possess one of the shortest injury lists going into Round 1 and will be close to full strength.
It was difficult to take much out of the NAB Challenge match these two played, as both coaches tinkered with structures. Crouch and Thompson hurt Adelaide, which makes me feel North should be slightly shorter than $2.25. It is a very tight game to split though.
NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 6 POINTS
Suggested Bet
North Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.80
FREMANTLE ($1.77) VS PORT ADELAIDE ($2.05)
AT DOMAIN STADIUM, SUNDAY 05/04, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: SF 2014 Fremantle 11.17 (83) lost to Port Adelaide 15.15 (105) at PS
Line: Freo -4.5, Port +4.5
Fremantle managed to win two games during the NAB Challenge, but it goes into Round 1 with a number of players under injury clouds or under done. First of all it must deal with the suspension of Ryan Crowley, who looks to have been replaced by Clancee Pearce. Then there are key defenders Zac Dawson and Alex Silvagni who are unavailable due to groin and hamstring troubles respectively. Hayden Ballantyne, Tendai Mzungu, Zac Clarke, Hayden Crozier and Matt Taberner are all available after having to pass fitness tests, while Michael Barlow, Paul Duffield and Daniel Pearce all required a run with Peel Thunder for match fitness. That is a lot of best 22 or fringe players with injury concerns only days prior to Round 1.
Port Adelaide didn’t have the best preseason with disappointing losses to Richmond and Adelaide, but the Power are focused on one thing and that is Round 1. Port Adelaide have barely fielded anything close to resembling its best 22 side throughout the NAB Challenge, but not necessarily by choice. Chad Wingard and Jackson Trengove haven’t played a preseason game between them, but have been on a program based on being ready for Round 1. Hamish Hartlett strained a groin two weeks ago, but will also play. The wildcards are former Essendon players Paddy Ryder and Angus Monfries, who are now available after being found not guilty of being administered banned substances.
Port Adelaide enjoyed Domain Stadium (formerly Patersons Stadium) last year, despite going down to Fremantle in Round 23 by 8 points. It quickly made up for it with a famous 22 point win against the Dockers in the Semi Final, while also beating West Coast at Domain in Round 5. $2.05 head to head looks outstanding value.
PORT ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 16 POINTS
Suggest Bet
Port Adelaide to win head to head @ $2.05 (using Sportsbet lead at any break cash back special).
HAWTHORN ($1.38) VS GEELONG ($3.05)
AT THE MCG, MONDAY 06/04, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: QF 2014 Hawthorn 15.14 (104) dftd Geelong 10.8 (68) at the MCG
Line: Hawks -17.5, Cats +17.5
Hawthorn started its 2015 campaign slightly later than most teams for obvious reasons, which resulted in some rusty performances to start the NAB Challenge. I wouldn’t be taking too much notice of that though, especially after the reigning Premier got things rolling against St Kilda with a thumping 106 point win. It was a bit of a training drill, which saw 15 Hawks players collect 17 disposals or more. The only injury concern coming into the season opener is Grant Birchall, who’ll miss at least the Geelong clash. Apart from that, the Hawks look primed for Round 1.
Geelong were one of the more fascinating teams to watch during the NAB Challenge, mainly due to the exploits of Mitch Clark. The former Melbourne and Brisbane big man ranked number one of goals scored (11) during the NAB Challenge and scoreboard impact. He looks set to be the pick-up of the season and provides the much needed support that Hawkins required in 2014. The other area the Cats must improve is at the contests, where Jimmy Bartel and James Kelly have returned to help reverse the worrying clearance and contested possession stats.
For the first time in many years, there appeared to be a gap emerging between these two sides who have developed the greatest rivalry in the competition. Hawthorn had comfortable victories during the Qualifying Final and Round 22. The Hawks are deserving favourites, but don’t completely rule the Cats out.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 8 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.20
