Welcome to the Round 4 AFL preview. Fremantle remain the only undefeated side after five rounds of footy and most importantly hold a vital eight point break from fellow premiership contenders Hawthorn, Sydney and Port Adelaide. The Dockers have an attractive streak of games coming up that creates the potential of that gap growing larger, which will bring a home Qualifying Final right into play. Is there more challengers to the top four premiership favourites than we originally thought though? The form of Collingwood has been impressive, while the Western Bulldogs have captured the imagination of nearly every football follower. They are still regarded as long shots at $34.00 and $81.00 respectively, but both are playing attractive styles of football. I personally need a whole lot more evidence to even confidently say either can make the finals, but they are both generating plenty of discussion.
BEST BET
Adelaide 40+ @ $1.98
COLLINGWOOD ($1.64) VS GEELONG ($2.30)
AT THE MCG, FRIDAY 08/05, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R3 2014 Collingwood 11.10 (76) lost to Geelong 12.15 (87) at the MCG
Line: Pies -6.5, Cats +6.5
Collingwood continued on its winning ways with a comprehensive 75 point win against Carlton to ruin Mick Malthouse’s record breaking day. The statistics matched a lopsided scoreboard that proved that the Pies didn’t have many individual losers on the ground. Collingwood have certainly put a focus on strengthening the midfield woes of late last season and currently easily average the most contested possession per game with 157.3. That has been helped by the improvement of Taylor Adams and Dane Swan, while the inclusion of Jack Crisp has been underrated. Inform back man Paul Seedsman is out after being subbed out with a hip complaint.
The Cats produced its best performance of the year thus far with a nine point victory against Richmond. The final margin didn’t quite justify the control Geelong held for a majority of the day, but I think Chris Scott will be ecstatic to just get the points. Harry Taylor and Jared Rivers were probably Geelong’s most influential players on the day, taking 27 marks between them and repelling any Richmond charge at will. They certainly looked more comfortable with Tom Lonergan back in the side. The Cats will be boosted by the inclusions of Clark and Stanley, but will lose Kelly to a nasty ruptured testicle.
These two sides have developed a nice rivalry over the last decade. Collingwood look to be hitting peak form and should be too strong through the middle.
COLLINGWOOD TO WIN BY 13 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Shane Kersten 3 Goals or more @ $4.00
NORTH MELBOURNE ($1.52) VS RICHMOND ($2.60)
AT BLUNDSTONE ARENA, SATURDAY 09/05, 13:45
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R12 2014 North Melbourne 17.14 (116) dftd Richmond 13.10 (88) at ES
Line: North -12.5, Tigers +12.5
Some say North Melbourne were intimidated by the physical presence of Hawthorn Saturday night after it went down by 10 goals to the reigning premier. That is an easy thing to say when there were two undisciplined incidences from a couple of Hawthorn stars that resulted in suspensions, but I feel that is a cop out. The game really wasn’t that physical as both sides registered below average contested possession counts, while the Hawks only laid 49 tackles for the night. That is hardly intimidating. North were plain and simply beaten by a better side on the night. It was a performance that suggested that it is a long way off the four premiership favourites. Swallow needs to pass a concussion test, while Waite and Hansen return.
Richmond has gone into each of its five matches this year as favourite, yet has only been able to manage a win/loss record of 2-3. Odds aren’t the best way to judge a side, but I’d be very surprised if Richmond didn’t possess similar expectations internally. Positively, the Tigers did play some impressive footy once it had to play catch up and take the game on. Before that though, the movement and decision making through the middle of the ground gave the forwards little hope and on some occasions you could have sworn some Richmond players thought Taylor and Rivers were wearing yellow and black. Brett Deledio has finally been named.
Both sides are coming off disappointing performances, but North Melbourne surely still hold the more impressive form lines. It has beaten Richmond the last four encounters.
NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 29 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
North Melbourne @ -12.5 line
WESTERN BULLDOGS ($1.33) VS ST KILDA ($3.40)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 09/05, 14:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R20 2014 St Kilda 15.9 (99) lost to Western Bulldogs 18.14 (122) at ES
Line: Dogs -20.5, Saints +20.5
Who isn’t impressed with the way the Western Bulldogs are playing their footy currently? The Dogs weren’t supposed to win four games for the year, let alone win four in the first five rounds of the season. The win against Sydney on Saturday is being described as one of the clubs best home and away victories for the modern era. In wet conditions the Dogs matched the 2014 Grand Finalist for ferocity and combativeness in its own backyard. The universal love for Robert Murphy has grown significantly since he has taken over the captaincy and it appears to have enhanced his on field impact. While most players struggled for efficiency in the sloppy conditions, Murphy operated at 79% with ball in hand to be a game breaker. The Dogs have a long stretch of winnable games over the next couple of months. Should they dare to dream big? The ever improving Lin Jong will miss after having surgery on his hand, while Matthew Boyd is struggling with general soreness.
St Kilda were desperately unlucky not to get an upset win against Essendon on Sunday. Had some simple chances been converted in the fourth quarter, a second 2015 win was more than likely. The Saints have had some big improvers in 2015, highlighted by Josh Bruce and David Armitage. Bruce currently finds himself outright second on the Coleman Medal leader board with 17 goals, while Armitage is averaging 31.2 disposals per game, ranked third in the competition. A young side means there will always be inconsistency, but at least there are signs of improvement. Riewoldt and Montagna are obviously massive inclusions to the side.
Who could possibly tip against the Dogs in their current form? They should be far too strong.
WESTERN BULLDOGS TO WIN BY 26 POINTS
No Suggested Bet
GWS ($4.20) VS HAWTHORN ($1.24)
AT SPOTLESS STADIUM, SATURDAY 09/05, 16:35
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R11 2014 Hawthorn 14.10 (94) dftd GWS Giants 13.9 (87) at the MCG
Line: Giants +27.5, Hawks -27.5
The Giants got a serious reality check against the Eagles in Perth, going down to the tune of 87 points. Statistically it doesn’t look like the Giants stopped competing, but when you only kick 1.5 after quarter time, the question has to be asked. Domain Stadium certainly isn’t a happy hunting ground for the Giants, who hold a 96.4 point average losing margin at the venue. Whether it is mental or the wide open spaces don’t suit, no AFL team should have a record like that at any venue. The test doesn’t get any easier this week taking on the reigning premiers, but Leon Cameron will be demanding a four quarter effort despite the opposition.
Unfortunately, Hawthorn’s complete domination of North Melbourne was completely forgotten due to two brainless acts from a couple of senior players who should know better. Luke Hodge and Jordan Lewis were in the headlines for all the wrong reasons after reckless hits to Andrew Swallow and Todd Goldstein respectively. A remorseful Hodge went to the tribunal and was suspended for three weeks, while Lewis was very lucky to get away with two. It is probably time the Hawks got themselves out of the papers. You can’t have your coach, captain and reigning best and fairest winner being involved in three separate, avoidable incidences within a week and not expect your club brand to be tarnished.
The Hawks will let their footy do the talking this week and win comfortably.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 33 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Quarter By Quarter Leader Hawthorn/Hawthorn/Hawthorn/Hawthorn @ $1.85
GOLD COAST ($5.70) VS ADELAIDE ($1.14)
AT METRICON STADIUM, SATURDAY 09/05, 17:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R11 2014 Adelaide 16.13 (109) dftd Gold Coast 11.11 (77) at AO
Line: Suns +36.5, Crows -36.5
The Suns were emphatic against fellow Queensland side the Brisbane Lions on Saturday, running away to a 64 point win. Rodney Eade will be relieved to finally be off the mark as Gold Coast coach, but unfortunately for him things are only going to get tougher this week. Since the siren sounded on Saturday, anything that could have gone wrong has for the Suns. Garlett, Martin and Tape have been added to the injury list, Steven May has been suspended for three weeks, while Bennell, Matera and McKenzie have all been given club suspensions for breaking a drinking curfew. Add names like Ablett, O’Meara, Swallow, Malceski, Day, Broughton and Rodney Eade might be struggling to get a team up for this week. That isn’t an exaggeration either, as there are apparently only 25-26 players to choose from. It is chaos.
Adelaide were soundly beaten by Port Adelaide in the Showdown on Sunday, but Phil Walsh wouldn’t be overly disappointed by the effort. His players fought hard until the end, but were beaten by a better team on the day. The Crows won the clearance (highlighted by a massive 14 from Dangerfield), contested possession and tackle counts, which would please Walsh. It also dominated the inside 50 count and couldn’t capitalise. It won the statistic 71-42, but could only manage 26 shots on goal. It should get plenty of opportunities to improve on that this week. Rory Sloane is in doubt with a corked calf, but is likely to play and has been named. Douglas, Jenkins, Henderson and Ellis-Yolmen are all out due to injury.
You can’t have that many players out of your best 22 and not expect repercussions. Adelaide have an average winning margin of 52.66 points at Metricon Stadium and I expect that to grow further. Adelaide’s line was under 30 points earlier in the week, but has drifted substantially since. The Adelaide 40+ margin at $1.98 looks outstanding value.
ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 72 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Adelaide 40+ @ $1.98
MELBOURNE ($5.25) VS SYDNEY ($1.17)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 09/05, 19:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R6 2014 Melbourne 5.8 (38) lost to Sydney 9.15 (69) at the MCG
Line: Dees +30.5, Swans -30.5
Poor old Melbourne never really had a chance of beating the all-conquering Fremantle side on Sunday afternoon. The Dockers midfield was always going to be too big and the statistics indicated such. Excluding rebound 50s (due to the ball entering its defensive 50 so often), there wasn’t a key performance indicator that Melbourne won. That doesn’t mean they didn’t have a crack, they were simply out classed. Neville Jetta and Chris Dawes face fitness tests before taking the field on Saturday.
The Swans met a tenacious side on Saturday that is full of confidence, but some declining trends are sure to have John Longmire concerned. The Swans have always had a strong reputation of being contested ball and clearance beasts, but opposition teams have been slowly but surely catching up over the last couple of years. Sydney play a game style that is always going to see in ranked highly for total contested possessions and clearances, but the differentials are closing in. The Dogs basically matched Sydney in both areas on Saturday and were far more effective on the rebound. Sam Reid returns after being a late withdrawal on the weekend due to a calf complaint, while Heeney is also back.
Sydney will bounce back, but expect Paul Roos to really test his old side at the contests. There aren’t too many people who know the Swans better.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 24 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Jesse Hogan First Goalscorer @ $13.00
FREMANTLE ($1.25) VS ESSENDON ($4.10)
AT DOMAIN STADIUM, SATURDAY 09/05, 20:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R4 2014 Fremantle 18.5 (113) dftd Essendon 9.6 (60) at PS
Line: Dockers -25.5, Bombers +25.5
Fremantle just continued on its merry way with a comfortable victory against Melbourne on Sunday. The usual names dominated again, as Fyfe, Barlow, Mundy, Pearce, Neale and Hill all gathered 25 disposals or more for the day. As I stated early, the Dockers now find themselves two games clear of Hawthorn, Sydney and Port Adelaide with some winnable games to come, but Ross Lyon must ensure his side doesn’t become complacent with its current form. Playing teams of lesser quality can create bad habits, so the factors that have seen this side undefeated to date must be replicated each week.
The Bombers were extremely lucky to get away with a win against a side possessing far less talent and experience. After showing such promising signs early in the season against top clubs, the Essendon players appear to have gone back into their shells by playing safe, risk free football. I highly doubt this would be an instruction from James Hird, which suggests the players need to be held accountable. The slow ball movement is creating nightmares for an Essendon forward line that is out of touch. Daniher and Carlisle are far more dangerous when the ball comes in fast and they need to be given that opportunity more often. The open spaces of Domain Stadium may naturally help, if of course the Bombers midfielders work hard enough on the spread.
The last four encounters between these two sides have been played in Perth and the Bombers have split the points with two wins. On current form though, Fremantle are far superior.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 45 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Fremantle @ -25.5 Line
CARLTON ($1.28) VS BRISBANE ($3.65)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 10/05, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R11 2014 Brisbane Lions 14.14 (98) dftd Carlton 13.13 (91) at G
Line: Blues -25.5, Lions +25.5
Unfortunately Carlton couldn’t much the hype surrounding Mick Malthouse’s 715th record breaking game as coach, getting thumped his old side Collingwood by 75 points. The clear difference between the two sides was efficiency and pressure, as Collingwood dominated both areas. Carlton had 98 less effective disposals than Collingwood, with an efficiency percentage differential of -12%. That is an enormous number. It all makes sense when you see that the Pies had 35 more tackles than Carlton, despite having 78 more disposals. Mick Malthouse has work ethic problems plaguing his team and he needs to find a way to turn it around immediately. Lachie Henderson won’t play after being subbed without a possession, but Dale Thomas is back from his shoulder problem.
The Brisbane Lions are now the only side in the competition without points and find themselves stone cold last on the ladder with a percentage at least 20% lower than every other team. There doesn’t appear to be an easy fix either, as Justin Leppitsch looks completely starved for answers at press conferences. Injuries continue to be a problem, as Tom Rockliff’s poor luck continued when he was knockout before gathering a disposal. Despite kicking two goals and collecting 31 disposals, Dayne Beams also appears to be below 100% fitness. It is looking to be a long season for the Lions.
Neither side has impressed many, but the Blues deserve its short favouritism and should get over the line.
CARLTON TO WIN BY 19 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Carlton 1-39 @ $2.20
PORT ADELAIDE ($1.18) VS WEST COAST ($4.90)
AT ADELAIDE OVAL, SUNDAY 10/05, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R5 2014 West Coast 7.14 (56) lost to Port Adelaide 10.10 (70) at PS
Line: Port -31.5, Eagles +31.5
Port Adelaide were too good and ultimately too efficient for its crosstown rival during the Showdown, getting home by a comfortable four goals. The Power only had 42 inside 50 entries, but made the most of them with 18 goals and 25 shots on goal. Ken Hinkley will be pleased with two vital wins over the last two weeks, but the inside 50 differential would be causing headaches. Over the last two rounds, Port Adelaide have a differential of -65 inside 50s, an amazing statistic considering it has collected eight points in that time. Not only are Port efficient going forward, they are just as effective at defending an opposition inside 50. However, Ken Hinkley can’t expect to keep winning with the ball entering their defensive 50 so regularly. Jared Polec is out for a number of weeks with a foot injury.
West Coast didn’t lessen its reputation of being a downhill skier, destroying GWS by 87 points. Josh Kennedy was yet again in the goals with 6, giving him a 5 goal lead in the Coleman Medal. Unfortunately, he has hyper-extended his elbow which may have left him requiring eventual surgery. He has decided to play on for the time being, but he will be taking painkillers and injections to get through games. It could have been another cruel injury blow for the Eagles, who appear to have a cursed bunch of key position players. Adam Simpson just can’t take a trick, but he would be pleased that his tall forward is available for the time being.
Port Adelaide has lost its last five home games after a Showdown, potentially indicating the physical demands of its Adelaide rivalry. I see that more of a coincidence than a trend and believe the streak is due to be broken. Port should win comfortably.
PORT ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 21 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Port Adelaide -7.5 Quarter Time Line
