Welcome to the Round 20 AFL preview. Round 19 saw a touch of normality return to the competition as Fremantle all but cemented top position and Hawthorn returned to its winning ways. West Coast, Sydney and Richmond all drifted in premiership markets after disappointing losses, while the Western Bulldogs took full advantage by sneaking into the top four after a massive win against Port Adelaide. That final double chance opportunity is open to as many as six sides, with the Dogs, Sydney, North Melbourne, Richmond, Geelong and Adelaide all within six points of each other. That group of teams is as tight as you could possibly expect and key encounters during the final rounds will more than likely determine each club’s fate. Round 23 in particular looks exciting with Richmond taking on North Melbourne Friday night, while Geelong host Adelaide the following day. As much as I hate looking forward too far, double chances and elimination finals are likely to be decided at that time.

BEST BET
Port Adelaide @ -5.5 Quarter Time Line

SYDNEY ($1.42) VS COLLINGWOOD ($2.95)

AT THE SCG, FRIDAY 14/08, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R2   2014   Sydney   10.9   (69)   lost to   Collingwood   12.17   (89)   at ANZ
Line: Swans -17.5, Pies +17.5
As we having been noticing over the past couple of months, the Sydney Swans have shown signs of dropping off and the weaknesses were there for all to see against Geelong. Sydney continue to play a brand of football that creates stoppages, but have been annihilated in tight consistently of late. Geelong’s contested work has improved dramatically in recent times, but not to the point where it has nearly 30 more contested possessions than Sydney. The Swans have become predictable at the stoppages and aren’t anywhere near as clean as they once were. Sydney have drifted to $9.00 for the flag and are lucky not to be double figures. Buddy misses again with that crook back.
Collingwood finally ended a six match losing streak, but were hardly convincing against a struggling Carlton outfit. Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury shared 78 disposals between them, yet only contributed a total of 22 contested possessions and 10 clearances to their side. They both played outstanding games, but didn’t have their usual influence at the stoppages as Collingwood were murdered 31-45 for clearances. Fasolo and Reid were dangerous up forward with 8 goals combined and with Travis Cloke returning this week, the scoring problems should lessen further.
Both teams are struggling to hit top form. The Pies haven’t travelled to the SCG since 2000 and won’t be familiar with the tight dimensions. Sydney desperately need to turn things around.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 16 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Sydney 1-39 @ $2.10

ESSENDON ($4.50) VS ADELAIDE ($1.22)

AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 15/08, 13:45
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R14   2014   Essendon   15.11   (101)   dftd   Adelaide   14.8   (92)   at ES
Line: Bombers +28.5, Crows -28.5
Another week, another disappointing Essendon performance. Statistically, Essendon were far more competitive than the scoreboard suggested, but just gave up so many good opportunities. The Bombers won more of the footy, ended with 13 more inside 50s, won both contested possession and clearance counts, but simple couldn’t finish the job as GWS ran away with the win. Add to that a massive spread in the Herald Sun on Monday that produced further details of the infamous drugs saga and it isn’t difficult to understand why Mark Thompson believes the club is “drowning” over the probe. This football club is stagnant.
The Adelaide vs Richmond game left many scratching their heads, not just due to the result but mainly the awfully lopsided statistics that no one could have predicted. The Crows produced a club record 74 inside 50s, ended +60 for disposals, +20 for tackles, +32 for contested possession and +21 for clearances, this all against a side that successfully dismantled Hawthorn the week before. I don’t know what to make of it and I doubt they are numbers you can trust to carry on. Adelaide were good, but I’m relatively confident that it was more about Richmond having an incredibly bad night. In saying that, I look forward to having a closer look at both sides this week to justify that belief.
I won’t be encouraging anyone to back Essendon for the rest of the year. Adelaide should cover the line with ease.
ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 49 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Adelaide @ the -28.5 Line

NORTH MELBOURNE ($1.22) VS ST KILDA ($4.50)

AT BLUNDSTONE ARENA, SATURDAY 15/08, 14:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R17   2014   North Melbourne   13.14   (92)   dftd   St Kilda   3.15   (33)   at BA
Line: North -30.5, Saints +30.5
North Melbourne had to fight hard for its win against Melbourne, despite the comfortable 35 point margin. The Demons challenged all the way up to the midpoint of the final quarter where North looked threatened with a small 8 point lead, before running away late. Surprisingly, it was a beautiful game of football to watch for the neutral observer and all aspects of the game were positively put on show. Not only was it high scoring and free flowing, but brilliant stoppage work from both teams ensured the ball was cleanly delivered on the outside a high percentage of the time. Brad Scott wouldn’t be happy with Melbourne scoring as often as they did, but his side is producing some dangerously fast football itself.
St Kilda are finally beginning to show consistent signs of tiring over the last couple of weeks after a fruitful season to date. The Saints found themselves nine goals down to Fremantle at halftime and were never going to get back in the match. To St Kilda’s credit, they did outscore the Dockers 6 goals to 3 in the second half, but I think Ross Lyon was far more concerned about getting his soldiers through the game. The Saints still laid 68 tackles though, which suggests the effort is still there.
North Melbourne will continue to score fast, which could open the game up in Hobart. The Dockers got a fast start on St Kilda last week and North will be looking to do the same.
NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 40 POINTS
No Suggested Bet

PORT ADELAIDE ($1.29) VS GWS ($3.65)

AT ADELAIDE OVAL, SATURDAY 15/08, 16:35
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R7   2014   GWS Giants   15.7   (97)   lost to   Port Adelaide   20.12   (132)   at STO
Line: Port -22.5, Giants +22.5
Port Adelaide were showing steady signs of improvement recently, but was nowhere near its best against the Western Bulldogs on Saturday. The Power couldn’t even register 300 disposals, which isn’t good enough against any opponent. Port managed to breakeven at the stoppages, but were absolutely mauled on the outside as the Dogs ran away with an extra 98 uncontested possessions. Ken Hinkley has been daring his side to take the game on, but it completely backfired against a confident side like the Bulldogs who ran both ways. The Power have been accused of giving up on Saturday, a mantra that those at Alberton have prided themselves on under Hinkley’s tenure. Port now finds itself two and a half games outside the top eight, all but ruling out any September action.
GWS weren’t exactly impressive against Essendon during Round 19, but did enough claim a 32 point victory and most importantly keep in touch with the top eight. The Giants entered its forward arc 13 times less than the Bombers, but were very efficient when they did by generating 23 shots on goals. GWS will lose more games than not with only 45 inside 50s and must create a greater number of opportunities to be competitive against the better clubs. That is difficult to achieve when playing two developing rucks, which may become the main reason as to why the Giants fall short of its first finals appearance. Scully, Coniglio and Treloar are massive outs for the Giants
If Port Adelaide produce anything like its Round 19 effort, GWS are a chance. Although Port Adelaide are still starting games well and will looking to expose the Giants recent trend of poor first quarters. I expect the Power to bounce back and give its supporters hope for 2016.
PORT ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 31 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Port Adelaide @ -5.5 Quarter Time Line

GEELONG ($4.10) VS HAWTHORN ($1.25)

AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 15/08, 19:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R1   2015   Hawthorn   17.21   (123)   dftd   Geelong   8.13   (61)   at the MCG
Line: Cats +27.5, Hawks -27.5
The form turnaround of Geelong continued on Saturday as Chris Scott’s men dominated Sydney in the second half. It is no coincidence that the Cats improved performance at the stoppages and four game winning streak have occurred simultaneously. Geelong’s midfield is beginning to build some consistent numbers over the past month, led especially by contested possession. The Cats have rarely won a contested ball count all year, but are +56 in the category over the past four weeks. Josh Caddy has taken the next step and will be in contention for the best and fairest, while the return of Mitch Duncan has created a smaller workload for Joel Selwood who is back in form. Steve Johnson returns for his 250th game.
Hawthorn returned to its winning ways against West Coast with a come from behind 14 point victory. The Hawks wanted to make a statement against a fellow challenger after losing to Richmond last week and did so with ferocious efforts to win the footy. Hawthorn convincingly won the stoppages in the absence of Nic Naitanui, finishing the game with differentials of +13 for clearances and +6 contested possessions. It was the all-round performance the Hawks required after Richmond shutdown so many of their attacking avenues. Lake and Hale add further experience to an already very accomplished team.
Hawthorn are beginning to take control of this great rivalry, having won the last three encounters with ease. Don’t completely rule out the rejuvenated Cats, but you still get the feeling Hawthorn will be too strong.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 10 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Jack Gunston To Score 3 or More Goals

BRISBANE ($1.78) VS CARLTON ($2.08)

AT THE GABBA, SATURDAY 15/08, 19:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R6   2015   Carlton   11.9   (75)   lost to   Brisbane Lions   12.12   (84)   at ES
Line: Lions -3.5, Blues +3.5
Brisbane produced some exciting football against Gold Coast in the Q-Clash, but ultimately fell to its eleventh consecutive loss. The Lions ended the game with 133 more disposals than the Suns, but couldn’t transform that extra possession into the required scoreboard pressure. It wasn’t as if Brisbane weren’t getting the ball forward with 53 inside 50s and 30 shots on goal, it was more the fact that when the Suns entered their forward arc, they scored 67% of the time. Justin Leppitsch has apparently been told that his job is safe for next season, but the pressure will be at boiling point over the preseason if the Lions can’t get another win this year.
Like the Lions, Carlton were more than competitive during Round 19, but couldn’t do enough to get the points against Collingwood. The Blues were dominant at the stoppages, winning the clearances 45-31 but weren’t quite as efficient on the outside as the Pies. A lot of that inside dominance was generated by Rising Star contender Patrick Cripps, who produced career high numbers on the weekend. He ended with 18 contested possessions and 11 clearances to be one of Carlton’s most damaging players and not for the first time this year.
I’m a bit surprised that Brisbane have been installed favourite here, as Carlton have the slightly better current form despite losing the last six matches. Those odds appear based on the Round 6 encounter between these sides.
CARLTON TO WIN BY 8 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Carlton Head to Head @ $2.08 (Sportsbet lead at any break special)

RICHMOND ($1.21) VS GOLD COAST ($4.40)

AT THE MCG, SUNDAY 15/08, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R1   2014   Gold Coast   12.15   (87)   dftd   Richmond   10.9   (69)   at MS
Line: Tigers -28.5, Suns +28.5
I am struggling to believe that the same yellow and black sashed club has participated in the last two Friday night games. The version that turned up against Hawthorn on July 31st had the resemblance of a premiership contender, a team that had disciplined structures and the nerve to completely restrict a club that has won the last two flags. The second variant that took on Adelaide last Friday night was the complete opposite, a side that conceded a record total of inside 50s and battled to clear the halfway mark at times. Trent Cotchin stated during the week that he doesn’t even know what the term ‘typical Richmond’ means. Well skipper, just take a closer look over the last two weeks and a definition will become far clearer. Brett Deledio is obviously an important inclusion, especially considering the Tigers poor record without him.
The Suns won its second Q-Clash of the year against Brisbane and should now avoid the wooden spoon. Gold Coast didn’t win anywhere near the amount of footy as Brisbane, but were brilliantly efficient when going forward. Tom Lynch carried on his outstanding form of late with another 5 goals to arguably be the best player on the ground. Rodney Eade is finally beginning to produce some decent football from his young side, which must continue on into 2016.
What do we make of the Tigers after such a terrible performance against Adelaide? I’m willing to accept it as a once off, but need some evidence to build my trust again. Richmond should deal with the Suns comfortably.
RICHMOND TO WIN BY 30 POINTS
No Suggested Bet

WESTERN BULLDOGS ($1.22) VS MELBOURNE ($4.25)

AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 15/08, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R8   2015   Melbourne   15.13   (103)   dftd   Western Bulldogs   9.10   (64)   at the MCG
Line: Dogs -28.5, Dees +28.5
Luke Beveridge must now be considered the coach of 2015 as his young side sits inside the top four after 18 games. There weren’t many who predicted the Western Bulldogs to finish outside the bottom four, which is what makes this achievement really special. The Dogs gave Port Adelaide an old fancied belting at Etihad Stadium, as a seven goal to three final quarter saw the margin surpass ten goals. Stringer, Dickson and Crameri were all in the goals yet again, but it was Jack Redpath who caught the eye with four goals and three big contested marks. He has replaced Tom Boyd as the big target up forward recently and is beginning to have a serious impact. Bob Murphy is back for the Dogs.
Melbourne backed up its win against Collingwood in Round 18 with another solid performance, before North Melbourne ran away to a 35 point win with a flurry of late goals. The Dees managed to breakeven in the middle, but were completely outclassed when North hit the flanks and wings. Jesse Hogan was again outstanding with 4 goals and 3 contested marks. Whoever misses out for the Rising Star between he and Cripps will consider themselves very unlucky, as they are the best two prospects for many years.
The Western Bulldogs now have an important task to complete in consolidating its top four position. It can’t afford any lapses in concentration like the last time these teams met in Round 8.
WESTERN BULLDOGS TO WIN BY 44 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Dogs @ the -28.5 Line

FREMANTLE ($1.55) VS WEST COAST ($2.45)

AT DOMAIN STADIUM, SUNDAY 15/08, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R3   2015   West Coast   12.9   (81)   lost to   Fremantle   17.9   (111)   at DS
Line: Freo -10.5, West Coast +10.5
The Fremantle Dockers now find themselves 10 points clear on top of the ladder, seemingly having wrapped both the McClelland Trophy and a home Qualifying Final. Fremantle were emphatic against St Kilda in the first half, having raced away to a 54 point lead at the main break. It was a nice change for Ross Lyon, who has been on the end of a couple of thumpings by his old side of late. The Dockers appeared to go into preservation mode in the second half as the defensive pressure dropped off and St Kilda began evening out some lopsided statistics. Nathan Fyfe will return for the Purple Haze after fully recovering from that corky, while Michael Johnson is finally over a serious hamstring injury.
West Coast were impressive at times against Hawthorn, but a lack of key personnel and injuries eventually caught up with Adam Simpson’s side. The loss of Nic Naitanui had a major impact on the game, as the Hawks had a much easier time at the stoppages as it otherwise would have. The Eagle’s form coincides with its output through the middle of the ground in 2015 and Saturday night was no exception. Unfortunately Nic Naitanui will be absent again as he mourns the death of his mother, while Jeremy McGovern has tweaked that same hamstring which further stretches West Coast’s ongoing KPD predicament. On top of that, Mark LeCras will also miss the game after accepting a one match suspension for a hit on James Frawley. They are big exclusions in one of the more hyped Derbies in some time.
This is the first time a Derby has been played with the Western Australian clubs positioned one and two on the ladder. I had always intended to tip West Coast for this game, but the unavailability of Nic Nat, LeCras and McGovern is defining. I expect Fremantle to finally even the ledger at 21 wins apiece.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 12 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Fremantle 1-39 @ $2.05