Welcome to the Round 19 AFL preview. Round 18 looked clear cut on Thursday night, as short priced favourites dominated the weekend. As we have become accustomed to this season, a group of nine short priced teams rarely all get across the line. It wasn’t just the insignificant matches that drew an upset, nearly every surprise will end up having a major impact on the final make-up of the eight. After everyone was close to accepting Hawthorn as the 2015 premier, Richmond decided to crash their party and make a loud announcement that there is more than one club in flag contention. The loss to Richmond now makes the chances of a home Qualifying Final for the Hawks very difficult. Fremantle and West Coast are now in prime position to host both Qualifying Finals in Perth, which isn’t ideal for the eastern sides. The final 5 rounds of the home and away fixture still leaves plenty of questions needing answers, which is the way all footy fans and punters will want it.

BEST BET
Richmond @ the -5.5 line

ADELAIDE ($2.15) VS RICHMOND ($1.70)

AT ADELAIDE OVAL, FRIDAY 07/08, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R21   2014   Adelaide   9.15   (69)   lost to   Richmond   10.19   (79)   at AO
Line: Crows +5.5, Tigers -5.5
The Adelaide Crows are finally beginning to tire after an exhausting couple of months mentally. Sydney managed to move the ball quicker than it has all season on Saturday, which suggested the Crows defensive pressure was lower than usual. Adelaide’s contested ball numbers were still high, but they could only manage 38 tackles against a Swans side that naturally creates a lot of stoppages. Taylor Walker kicked two goals from limited opportunities, but doesn’t look the same player as earlier in the season. The Crows are well and truly still in finals contention, but you get the feeling they are on the slide. Douglas missed after getting his appendix removed.
Richmond has announced itself as a genuine premiership contender after dismantling a Hawthorn side that didn’t look like losing another game this season after 17 rounds. The Tigers went into the game with a specific game plan to nullify Hawthorn’s ball movement and implemented it to perfection. Damien Hardwick recognised how dangerous the Hawks are rebounding from the defensive arc and shutdown their key users. It ended with Richmond restricting the Hawks to their lowest score of the year, resulting in a famous three goal win. The Tigers have now beaten Hawthorn, Fremantle and Sydney. They must now be taken seriously as a genuine threat and have shortened to $12.50 for the flag.
Richmond have already beaten Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Fremantle and Sydney interstate this year and won’t fear further travel. The Crows are waning, making the Richmond -5.5 line outstanding value.
RICHMOND TO WIN BY 34 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Richmond @ the -5.5 line

COLLINGWOOD ($1.20) VS CARLTON ($4.75)

AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 08/08, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R5   2015   Carlton   6.9   (45)   lost to   Collingwood   18.12   (120)   at the MCG
Line: Pies -32.5, Blues +32.5
Things just keep getting worse for Collingwood as it fell to its six consecutive loss, this time to Melbourne, a club it hasn’t lost to since 2007. The Pies now find themselves a game and a half outside the eight after starting the season 8-3. Many believed Collingwood were a genuine top four chance at the halfway point of the season, but has since mirrored its freefalling 2014 season. The disappointing thing for Nathan Buckley was that his side had 14 more inside 50s, but struggled to put the score on the board with limited forward targets. Injuries have obviously hurt, but we’ve also found out that the Pies depth isn’t where it needs to be. Ben Reid will play his first game of the year.
There wasn’t much expected from Carlton against an ever improving North Melbourne outfit, but excluding a second quarter fight back, there wasn’t much to take out of the game for John Barker. The defensive pressure output was an improvement, but 45 tackles still isn’t enough when the opposition have had much more of the footy. There were again signs of disinterested figures, many of which were players who have been linked to moves away from the club. I think Carlton will be happy to see 2015 move on as quickly as possible. Yarran and Menzel have been dropped.
Neither side has been impressive of late, but Collingwood should finally end the six game losing streak.
COLLINGWOOD TO WIN BY 32 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Lachie Henderson To Score 3 or More Goals @ $8.00

WESTERN BULLDOGS ($1.64) VS PORT ADELAIDE ($2.25)

AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 08/08, 14:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R10   2015   Port Adelaide   16.4   (100)   dftd   Western Bulldogs   9.8   (62)   at AO
Line: Dogs -7.5, Port +7.5
The Western Bulldogs furthered firmed a 2015 finals berth by completely annihilating a hapless Essendon outfit. The final margin blew out to 87 points, a figure that not even the most diehard Dogs fan would have predicted. Ex-Bomber Stewart Crameri had a field day against his old side, kicking a career best seven goals and having a hand in many others. Funnily enough the Dogs only ended with six different goal kickers as Crameri, Dickson and Stringer finished with 15 goals between them. The percentage boost enhanced the Dogs lofty top four ambitions further, but Sydney also managed an increase with its big win over Adelaide. Bob Murphy misses with general soreness.
As we know it is more than capable of, Port Adelaide produced some beautiful football against St Kilda which saw it run away to a comprehensive 63 point win. The Power were just as impressive on the inside as they were the outside, with contributors all over the ground. Robbie Gray and Chad Wingard were outstanding as usual, while some lesser names also managed to collect plenty of the ball. It would be nice to see the likes of Sam Gray, Moore, Young, O’Shae and Colquhoun contributing as they did on Sunday on a more frequent basis, as a large load is often left for the stars to carry. Ollie Wines will miss the rest of the season in a massive blow for Port, after dislocating his shoulder.
Port Adelaide were comprehensive in Adelaide earlier in the season against the Dogs and are in good form. The Red, White and Blue are a different prospect at Etihad though and should get over the line in a fast paced encounter.
WESTERN BULLDOGS TO WIN BY 15 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Over 180.5 Total Match Points

BRISBANE ($2.60) VS GOLD COAST ($1.52)

AT THE GABBA, SATURDAY 08/08, 16:35
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R5   2015   Gold Coast   18.10   (118)   dftd   Brisbane Lions   7.12   (54)   at MS
Line: Lions +11.5, Suns -11.5
Brisbane are another side counting down the weeks to the end of the season as it went on to a tenth consecutive loss. The Lions never really looked threatening as the terrible scoring issues continued to haunt Justin Leppitsch. It was actually the first time since June that Brisbane had managed to score over 50 points and even then they had a score a few late goals to get to 57 points. The Lions have been cursed by injuries all year and that only got worse against Geelong. Dayne Beams has finally succumbed to a shoulder injury that will see him miss the rest of the season, while Matthew Leuenberger will miss 2-3 weeks with a knee.
Even though the Suns only ended with a draw, the club produced one of its best moments of the season with a more than competitive effort against the highly rated Eagles. Tom Lynch marked strongly in the final minute of the game and kicked truly to tie the scores. Funnily enough, the big fellow thought his side was 5 points down at the time and believed he was kicking for the win. It sums up the Suns season, but Eade will be happy with the performance.
Whether you call it the Q-Clash, the Josh Schache Shield or the Charlie Dixon Cup, there will be limited interest in this game. Expect the Suns to get up with its far more impressive recent form lines.
GOLD COAST TO WIN BY 28 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Gold Coast @ the -11.5 Line

GEELONG ($2.00) VS SYDNEY ($1.83)

AT SIMONDS STADIUM, SATURDAY 08/08, 19:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R7   2015   Sydney   18.12   (120)   dftd   Geelong   11.11   (77)   at ANZ
Line: Cats +2.5, Swans -2.5
Many had written the Cats off for a position in the top eight after a disappointing loss to North Melbourne in Round 15, but fast forward a few weeks and they find themselves in eighth position. Three wins on the trot have seen the Cats shorten to $1.88 for September action and is now considered the most likely club to claim that final top eight spot. Geelong did what it needed to against a disappointing Brisbane line up to not only get the points, but boost its percentage above Adelaide’s. The cancelled Round 14 match between Adelaide and Geelong mean the two clubs only have themselves to compete with percentage wise and there is currently only a .59% differential. The Round 23 clash between those two could become a mini elimination final. Steve Johnson misses to yet another moronic, albeit provoked suspension.
Sydney produced arguably its best performance for two months with a 52 point win against Adelaide. The Swans moved the ball with precision and speed, but admittedly did so against minimal defensive pressure. Despite the opposition, it was still a confidence boosting result and a style that John Longmire will be looking to implement for the rest of the season. A concern for Sydney will be the fitness of Lance Franklin, who looked limited despite kicking three goals. In past seasons, the crook back of a big forward hasn’t been a quick fix. He won’t make the trip to Geelong.
As important as this game will be for final standings, it will be dominated by the return of Adam Goodes. I rate Geelong a good chance, especially considering Sydney’s recent woes and poor Simonds Stadium record. I wasn’t convinced with the Adelaide result.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 6 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Geelong 1-39 @ $2.50

WEST COAST ($2.20) VS HAWTHORN ($1.67)

AT DOMAIN STADIUM, SATURDAY 08/08, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R12   2014   Hawthorn   19.9   (123)   dftd   West Coast   12.7   (79)   at AU
Line: Eagles +6.5, Hawks -6.5
West Coast got away with two vital points against Gold Coast, but Adam Simpson certainly wouldn’t be happy with the result. Some are saying that the draw was as good as a win for West Coast and in some ways it was, but in others is wasn’t. While the two points saw West Coast a win and a half clear in second position, in the long run it could cost the Eagles top position. The attraction of top spot isn’t due to the title of being the best side after the home and away season has ended, it more importantly creates an opportunity against a weaker fourth placed club as opposed to Hawthorn. It is no point claiming home Qualifying Finals if you aren’t going to win them. We’ll know exactly where the Eagles are at against the Hawks in Perth on Saturday night. McGovern is an important inclusion for the Eagles.
Hawthorn were the flavour of the week after Round 17, which saw it shorten to near unbackable premiership favouritism, while a certain betting agency paid the Brown and Gold out. From there, no one could have predicted that the Hawks would struggle to score 50 points that following Friday night and go down to a new premiership contender. It was actually Hawthorn’s lowest score since Round 4, 2012 and they genuinely looked answerless to the Richmond tactics. Expect that game to be assessed to death by every senior coach in premiership contention over the coming weeks.
This game could well determine whether a Qualifying Final is played in Perth or Melbourne. West Coast had a hiccup during Round 18, but have similar defensive structures to that of Richmond. Hawthorn have only won 2 of its last 7 games in Perth, which suggests West Coast are value head to head.
WEST COAST TO WIN BY 8 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
West Coast Head to Head @ $2.20 (Sportsbet money back, lead at any break special)

MELBOURNE ($3.60) VS NORTH MELBOURNE ($1.29)

AT THE MCG, SUNDAY 09/08, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R23   2014   North Melbourne   19.9   (123)   dftd   Melbourne   14.9   (93)   at ES
Line: Dees +23.5, North -23.5
Just when it looked like Melbourne were headed for familiar dark places, they produce a victory from nowhere that gives confidence that the club is on the right track. The Collingwood hoodoo finally ended for Melbourne on the weekend as it produced its first win against the Pies since 2007. Despite a differential of -14 inside 50s and -7 clearances, Melbourne were dominant in most other areas and far more efficient going forward. The Dees were particularly good in the air, taking 25 contested marks and winning a majority of 50/50 contests. The challenge now for Paul Roos is to back it up.
Since North Melbourne went down to the Suns in Round 14, the side has looked far more settled with Brad Scott back in control despite playing mainly bottom 10 sides. While North Melbourne aren’t blessed with numerous naturally fast players, its ball movement has been far more dangerous during that time. It is a style that is likely to garner greater success come September and as we saw last year, the Roos are capable of peaking at the right time and causing damage. This will be the clubs second and final opportunity to play at the MCG before finals.
North Melbourne have the wood over Melbourne, amazingly having won the last 13 encounters. I’ll be extremely surprised if that doesn’t become 14.
NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 36 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
First Goalscorer Ben Cunnington @ $21.00

GWS ($1.27) VS ESSENDON ($3.75)

AT SPOTLESS STADIUM, SUNDAY 09/08, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R12   2014   GWS Giants   9.12   (66)   lost to   Essendon   11.15   (81)   at SPS
Line: Giants -24.5, Bombers +24.5
GWS never really threatened to overrun an organised Fremantle unit on Sunday, but constantly kept in touch and never gave in. There were times when you felt Fremantle were going to gallop away to a 10+ goal victory, but it never eventuated. Statistically the Giants looked gone as it was smashed for total possessions, contested possessions, clearances and inside 50s, but its defensive pressure consistently remained high. The Giants laid 80 tackles and ensured the Dockers never had an easy time of it. GWS sit just two points outside the top eight and are ready to swoop should any more experienced sides falter. The Giants have some decent names returning including Haynes, Smith, Palmer, Bugg and McCarthy, while Jon Patton has been named for the first time since his ACL injury.
Essendon looked to be making minor improvements over the last month or so, but produced a performance that was every bit as bad as the St Kilda capitulation in Round 14. After a low scoring first quarter that only produced one goal between both teams, Essendon conceded 14 goals over the next two quarters to completely be blown away. The tenure of James Hird doesn’t to have a lot of life in it, especially after deciding to sue the clubs insurance company during the week against his employer’s wishes. Hurley, Hocking and Howlett are good inclusions.
The Giants are still trying to win games of football and will do so against a club that looks lost.
GWS TO WIN BY 28 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
GWS/GWS/GWS/GWS Quarter by Quarter Leader @ $1.92

ST KILDA ($3.50) VS FREMANTLE ($1.30)

AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 09/08, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R18   2014   St Kilda   17.16   (118)   dftd   Fremantle   9.6   (60)   at ES
Line: Saints +22.5, Freo -22.5
St Kilda produced its worst performance for many weeks, going down to the tune of 63 points against a revived Port Adelaide. The Saints struggled to win as much ball as it has in recent weeks and as expected missed the presence of Nick Riewoldt. This can happen to young sides and Alan Richardson will take the opportunity to work on those deficiencies. Thankfully Riewoldt, Gilbert and Lonie will all be available to take on Fremantle, while Billy Longer is out after being subbed out with concussion.
Fremantle were dominant statistically against GWS, but couldn’t quite replicate that on the scoreboard. Differentials of +110 total disposals, +41 hit outs, +29 contested possession, +20 clearances and +26 inside are usually associated with a team that has had a 10+ goal win. Unfortunately for the Dockers, it only resulted in a 21 point margin. Positively, other results now see the Fremantle six points clear on top of the ladder, a position that is looking safer with every round that passes. Nathan Fyfe has yet again been left out as the Dockers look to ensure their best player is running at 100% coming into finals.
These two clubs have produced strange results of late. St Kilda has smashed Fremantle the last two times they have met, despite being at opposite ends of the ladder. The first encounter was due to mass Fremantle restings, the sequel wasn’t as easy to figure out. Either way, I can’t see it happening again.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 22 POINTS
No Suggested Bet