Welcome to the Round 18 AFL preview. Round 17 yet again reinforced that Hawthorn are the team to beat as the premiership favourite broke records in defeating Carlton by 138 points on Friday night. The Hawks are now considered such a good thing that Sportsbet have paid them out this week for the flag. The club who made the biggest noise though was West Coast, both in premiership betting markets and literally in the stands. On the field, West Coast easily accounted for Sydney by 52 points to shorten to $4.75 for the flag. Off the field, the match was deafened by the constant booing of Adam Goodes whenever he went near or touched the ball. Whether the crowd reaction has a racist undertone or not, it isn’t a good look for the AFL and they need it stop. The AFL has moved quickly to distance itself as being perceived as a fence sitter by admitting that the crowd reactions have a racist element to it. Goodes has now made it clear that the booing is having an effect on him and that should be enough for everyone to understand that it has gone on too long. If he does play again, it will be interesting to see how people choose to react to something that has now become such a public topic.
BEST BET
5 Leg Head to Head Multi of Hawthorn/Geelong/Collingwood/West Coast/North Melbourne @ $2.15 (Sportsbet H2H 5 Leg Multi – Cash Back if 1 Leg Fails Offer)
HAWTHORN ($1.17) VS RICHMOND ($5.00)
AT THE MCG, FRIDAY 31/07, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R6 2014 Richmond 7.10 (52) lost to Hawthorn 18.10 (118) at the MCG
Line: Hawks -35.5, Tigers +35.5
The Hawks 2015 season continued on in its dominant fashion with a record breaking win against Carlton on Friday night. Hawthorn sunk the Blues to a new biggest club losing margin of 138 points, which was more or less a master class. There really wasn’t an area that Hawthorn didn’t dominate, excluding perhaps the hit out count. The Hawks were deadly with ball in hand, operating at a disposal efficiency of 83% throughout the night. Those percentages are always going to be helped by over 300 uncontested possessions, while Carlton’s terrible defensive pressure was also a contributing factor. Another win this week to the Hawks and they could well shorten to under $2.00 for the flag. As stated earlier, Sportsbet have already paid Hawthorn out. Stratton, Frawley, Shiels and Duryea are all big inclusions for the Hawks.
Richmond suffered a heartbreaking four point loss to Fremantle on Saturday, a result that they only have themselves to blame. The defining moment came when Bachar Houli was kicking out with approximately a minute remaining from a Tommy Sheridan behind. The Tigers led by two points at the time and instead of kicking wide to the Richmond numbers, Houli had a brain fade and kicked the ball down the corridor to Lambert in space. The Fremantle zone swooped in, Ibbotson intercepted and hit Mundy inside 50 which resulted in the winning goal. It is usually unfair to pick out one error in a close loss, but this was a genuine shocker from Houli. In saying that, Richmond hit the post seven times which is the equal most ever recorded. They missed too many kickable opportunities, which has potentially cost the club a spot in the top four this week.
Richmond have won two of the last three encounters, but the Hawks are building perfectly. It is impossible to tip against the Brown and Gold on current form.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 27 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Hawthorn @ the -9.5 Third Quarter Line
GEELONG ($1.12) VS BRISBANE ($6.65)
AT SIMONDS STADIUM, SATURDAY 01/08, 13:45
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R23 2014 Geelong 21.17 (143) dftd Brisbane Lions 12.9 (81) at SS
Line: Cats -38.5, Lions +38.5
Geelong have managed to turn some poor form around to be well and truly back in finals contention. Wins against similarly placed teams in the Western Bulldogs and GWS now see Geelong just two points outside the eight. Should the likes of Tom Hawkins, Joel Selwood and Steven Motlop carry on their form from Saturday afternoon in Canberra, the Cats finals chances will continue to shorten. All three had massive impacts during the 27 point win against the Giants, which saw Hawkins kick 5 goals, Motlop gather 31 disposals and kick two goals, while the skipper finished with 27 disposals and 14 contested possessions. They are keys to Geelong’s 2015 fortunes.
Brisbane’s wooden spoon chances continue to become greater as it sunk it’s a ninth consecutive loss during Round 17. Their opponents North Melbourne didn’t produce anything spectacular, yet still came away with a comfortable 72 point win. It was the fourth consecutive week that Justin Leppitsch’s side has failed to score 50 points, a feat never achieved in the clubs history. While the Lions have limited forward options, they just aren’t getting the ball inside 50 enough to kick a winning score anyway. Ugly, ugly times down at the Gabba. Beams and Hanley are valuable ins for the Lions.
Geelong are just beginning to build some nice momentum. There are some teams higher up the ladder that would hate to see Geelong sneak into the eight.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 50 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Most Goals Tom Hawkins @ $1.95
COLLINGWOOD ($1.30) VS MELBOURNE ($3.60)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 01/08, 14:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R10 2015 Melbourne 13.7 (85) lost to Collingwood 17.8 (110) at the MCG
Line: Pies -22.5, Dees +22.5
The Collingwood slide is now becoming a massive issue, as the losing streak hits five and touch with the eight becomes stretched. The Pies were very much outplayed by the Western Bulldogs and probably should have gone down by more than 18 points. The Pies ended -96 for total disposals, -92 for uncontested possession, -9 for marks inside 50 and -13 for total inside 50s. Cloke and Elliott were obviously missed, but in a massive positive for the club Darcy Moore stepped up in their absence to kick 5 goals in just his third goal. He looks a beauty, but Collingwood won’t see him supported by Travis Cloke this week. Jamie Elliott and Taylor Adams are important inclusions.
Since Melbourne beat Geelong in late June, the side has disappointing dropped off after such positive signs. The Dees have beaten Brisbane in that time, but the Lions are a borderline basket case at the moment. Melbourne had more of the footy against St Kilda, but were beaten in tight and were made to pay. Bernie Vince, Max Gawn, Nathan Jones and Jack Viney are all still playing consistent footy, but there aren’t too many others that play at a satisfactory standard week in, week out. Paul Roos would be a frustrated man.
Collingwood had a comfortable 25 point win on the Queen’s Birthday public holiday earlier this year, but Travis Cloke kicked 7 goals that day. He won’t be around on Saturday, but I suspect Collingwood will still have enough goal kicking options to keep the Dees at bay.
COLLINGWOOD TO WIN BY 32 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Bernie Vince Most Possessions Group 1 @ $7.00
SYDNEY ($1.40) VS ADELAIDE ($3.00)
AT THE SCG, SATURDAY 01/08, 16:35
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R3 2014 Adelaide 9.17 (71) lost to Sydney 21.8 (134) at AO
Line: Swans -16.5, Crows +16.5
Sydney have fallen into a serious slump over the last five weeks and punters are beginning to drop off the 2014 Grand Finalist. The Swans are now out to $8.00 for the flag after consecutive poor performances against premiership contenders Hawthorn and West Coast. Had Richmond taken its chances against Fremantle, Sydney could have been sitting outside the top four. Since the Swans lost to Richmond in Round 13, John Longmire’s men have barely resembled a top eight side with disappointing performances against Brisbane and Port Adelaide as well. A good draw home should see them hold a top four position, but something desperately needs to spark the Swans. Adam Goodes has withdrawn after the booing controversy, but are boosted by the returns of Franklin, Richards, Tippett and McGylnn.
Adelaide did what it needed to against the Suns, running away to a 45 point win with an 8 goal final quarter. The Crows have struggled to finish games off of late, so Scott Camporeale will be delighted with the fourth term performance. He’ll also be delighted with his teams inside dominance, which saw the Crows end the game with a +36 contested possession differential. Adelaide are also successfully sharing the scoring load and ended with six different multiple goal scorers against the Suns. If Adelaide can score an away win here, they are well placed to hold a top eight position. Talia returns to take on those Sydney talls.
I’m finding this a tough game to predict with Sydney on the slide. Adelaide have a great SCG record having won the last four encounters against Sydney there, albeit only once in the last six years. Only the big inclusions has me backing the Swans
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 4 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Kieren Jack Most Possessions Group 2 @ $4.00
GOLD COAST ($7.50) VS WEST COAST ($1.10)
AT METRICON STADIUM, SATURDAY 01/08, 19:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R7 2015 West Coast 21.9 (135) dftd Gold Coast 6.7 (43) at DS
Line: Suns +43.5, Eagles -43.5
The Gold Coast Suns and Gary Ablett just can’t take a trick, as the skipper has now injured his knee and will miss the rest of the season. 2015 is now officially a write off for Rodney Eade and you’d suspect wins would no longer be the highest priority. While the Suns eventually went down to the Crows by 45 points, there were some notable positives individually. Harley Bennell returned to the side with class, gathering 39 disposals of which 16 were contested. Tom Lynch is also beginning to build into some nice form as he gathered 21 disposals, clunked 4 contested marks and kicked 4 goals against the Crows. Key players like Bennell and Lynch will be looking to finish 2015 well and take that confidence into 2016. Michael Rischitelli misses due to personal reasons.
West Coast have now shortened into equal second premiership favouritism after a comprehensive win against Sydney at Domain. The Eagles never looked threatened as they held the Swans to just one goal in the first half, before kicking the last three goals of the game to end a minor Red and White challenge. It was more of the same for West Coast, complete midfield dominance coupled with a potent forward line. Bring on Round 19 against the Hawks I say.
Gold Coast may as well pack up for 2015. West Coast will run away to a big win. I like the looks of the over 182.5 total points line.
WEST COAST TO WIN BY 58 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Over 182.5 Total Points Line
CARLTON ($5.75) VS NORTH MELBOURNE ($1.15)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 01/08, 19:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R18 2014 Carlton 16.13 (109) dftd North Melbourne 13.8 (86) at ES
Line: Blues +36.5, North -36.5
I know Carlton were taking on the premier team of the competition, but John Barker would be disgusted with his side’s effort on Friday night. The Blues were handed the clubs greatest ever losing margin of 138 points, surpassing the 124 point flogging from North Melbourne in 2003. No one wants to be part of records like that and Barker will be calling for higher standards after some embarrassing numbers. Carlton could only manage to lay 32 tackles, despite Hawthorn having the ball 453 times. When Hawthorn didn’t have the ball, they were more often than not getting it back due to Carlton’s enormous total of 61 clangers. I hope it isn’t a performance that breaks Barker’s fulltime chances.
North Melbourne travelled to Brisbane to celebrate Brent Harvey’s 400th game and came home with a comfortable 72 point win. The game never reached any great heights, nor did the Roos as they went about their business with minimum fuss. North Melbourne are now inside the top eight and I highly doubt we’ll see them drop out again in 2015. Brad Scott will look to implement finals winning elements over the next couple of weeks, so don’t be surprised to see some experimentation against lower sides.
Carlton defeated North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium in Round 18 last year, but it is difficult to see that being repeated. While North are never quite a guarantee, they should comfortably defeat Carlton.
NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 54 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
North Melbourne @ the -36.5 line
PORT ADELAIDE ($1.25) VS ST KILDA ($3.95)
AT ADELAIDE OVAL, SUNDAY 02/08, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R12 2014 Port Adelaide 19.15 (129) dftd St Kilda 9.5 (59) at AO
Line: Port -28.5, Saints +28.5
Port Adelaide kept its small finals chances alive with a less than convincing win against Essendon, but it was a fast paced, high scoring performance. The pressure appears off the Power and Ken Hinkley is happy enough to focus on a freewheeling style that is dangerous against any team. Port Adelaide are still a mathematical chance for September, so why not implement a game plan that is likely to thrill and beat quality sides when followed correctly? The problem is that this style opens up big scores the other way, but what is there to lose? It has produced results in the past and the more defensive elements can be assessed further during the 2016 preseason if it continues to be a success. It certainly builds the confidence of the players.
St Kilda continues to exceed expectations and has now reached a respectable six victories. Alan Richardson would have taken that tally at the start of the year and with six games remaining, can easily add more. A convincing win at the MCG against fellow developer Melbourne is no mean feat and Richardson would have been please to win the hard ball. Paddy McCartin showed signs of why he was taken No.1 in the 2014 draft, taking 9 marks of which 2 were contested. He looks to be developing a good partnership with Nick Riewoldt. Riewoldt, Lonie and Gilbert are all out after good performances last week.
I’m looking forward to seeing if Port Adelaide can continue successfully producing this fast paced football. St Kilda’s outs have definitely given Port Adelaide an advantage.
PORT ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 24 POINTS
No Suggested Bet
ESSENDON ($2.85) VS WESTERN BULLDOGS ($1.42)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 02/08, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R18 2014 Western Bulldogs 14.10 (94) lost to Essendon 15.11 (101) at ES
Line: Bombers +16.5, Dogs -16.5
Essendon went down to Port Adelaide by 13 points, but there were enough positives from the game to keep James Hird and the supporters happy. Hird is experimenting slightly with his list, looking to find answers to take into 2016 and help with list management decisions. Cale Hooker going forward was frowned upon at first, but has been a successful move. He ended with 3 goals from 20 possessions and completed 3 big contested marks. Nick O’Brien is a player Hird would have been impressed with, as he gathered 32 disposals and 7 clearances. These are challenging times for Essendon, but they still be bearing some fruit from all this. Jonathan Giles finally gets his chance.
The Western Bulldogs snatched a vital win against Collingwood on Sunday, one that now sees it just four points outside the top four. The Dogs could have easily beaten Collingwood by more than 18 points, ending with 8 more scoring shots and an extra 13 inside 50s. Tory Dickson continued on his outstanding form with 4 goals and is now regarded now of the best set shots in the competition. He has kicked 30 goals, 8 behinds for the season, accuracy that could become vital during September. They can’t be discounted for a shot at the double chance.
Essendon have won the last six encounters against the Dogs, but the tide has turned. Top four contenders don’t lose to sides in the bottom five, despite Essendon’s improved form.
WESTERN BULLDOGS TO WIN BY 20 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.15
FREMANTLE ($1.19) VS GWS ($4.75)
AT DOMAIN STADIUM, SUNDAY 02/08, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R17 2014 Fremantle 21.10 (136) dftd GWS Giants 9.6 (60) at PS
Line: Dockers -27.5, Giants +27.5
Fremantle were on the brink of losing top position on the ladder for the first time since Round 3, but snuck home with a 4 point victory in a heart stopper. Even the Dockers would admit that they were handed some genuine luck as Richmond capitulated on the big stage with not just that one obvious Bachar Houli error, but numerous others. Ross Lyon would be extremely concerned that Richmond smashed his side for contested possession 118-136, but would be ecstatic to come home with the points. Nathan Fyfe will be rested this week to nurse a corked quad.
A 27 point loss to Geelong has hurt Greater Western Sydney’s finals chances and the young side must now travel west to take on Fremantle. The Giants were beaten in too many areas against the Cats and let the key play makers have an influence of the result. Treloar, Ward and Coniglio are lacking support through the middle with the holes left by Shiel and Mumford in the ruck, but that is no surprise. Leon Cameron and his staff probably didn’t have his best day in the box either, which is particularly defining against sides in similar positions on the ladder. Sometimes you can take teams outplaying you on the ground, but it hurts more when outcoached. Devon Smith, Nick Haynes and Zac Williams are all vital outs.
It is time for the Dockers to start building to its finals burst. We need to start seeing some of the early season form again or that once guaranteed home Qualifying Final will slip away.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 23 POINTS
No Suggested Bet
