Welcome to the Round 17 AFL Preview. Round 16 produced yet another dominant performance from Hawthorn, who slaughtered a so called contender for the second week running. This time it was the Sydney Swans on the wrong end of a Hawthorn dismantling, going down to the tune of 89 points. The Hawks have now destroyed its two major competitor’s percentages with massive wins against Fremantle and Sydney respectively. The Hawks have now risen to third on the ladder and are as short as $2.00 with some betting agencies for the premiership. At this point in time the flag looks a one horse race, but key clashes against Richmond and West Coast in Rounds 18 and 19 respectively will determine whether there are other true contenders for the Hawks come September.
BEST BET
West Coast Second Half Handicap of -4.5 points @ $1.84
CARLTON ($15.00) VS HAWTHORN ($1.02)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, FRIDAY 24/07, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R13 2014 Carlton 13.12 (90) lost to Hawthorn 18.10 (118) at the MCG
Line: Blues +66.5, Hawks -66.5
Carlton travelled to Perth looking to ensure it was competitive more than anything and would have been relatively pleased with the result. 7 goal losses aren’t the most positive performances to be preaching, but there were good points to take out of the game. Unfortunately for John Barker, the media is beginning to lift its attention toward who will take on the full time reins of Carlton. Fremantle have made it no secret that Simon Lloyd has been interviewed and many speak highly of him. It must be a difficult situation for John Barker, knowing full well who is getting interviewed to potentially take his current role. He has so far handled the speculation brilliantly, but it is sure to be wearing thin.
Hawthorn are shortening to near unbackable premiership favouritism as it continues to humiliate any contender it comes up against. Sydney were on the receiving end this time as the Hawks scored with ease throughout the entire night. Funnily enough, Hawthorn only registered one more inside 50 to the Swans, while also finishing -2 for clearances and -16 for contested possessions, but were so efficient when going forward. The Hawks possess so many scoring options as Roughead returned with 5 goals, while Gunston, Rioli, Breust and McEvoy all ended with multiples. The Hawks are beginning to develop a large gap between itself and the rest, but can’t afford to peak too early.
Some are saying that this game is vital to John Barker’s chances of coaching Carlton in 2016. That is completely unrealistic as anything under a 12 goal margin could be seen as a positive.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 70 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Patrick Cripps Most Possessions Group 2 @ $6.00
GWS ($1.77) VS GEELONG ($2.05)
AT STARTRACK OVAL, SATURDAY 25/07, 13:45
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R18 2014 GWS Giants 12.15 (87) lost to Geelong 13.16 (94) at SPS
Line: Giants -3.5, Cats +3.5
The Giants just continue to do enough to stay inside the top eight, this time defeating the Suns by 15 points. It was a gutsy win by GWS who had to fight off a determined Suns side led by Gary Ablett. The margin was comfortable enough at the final siren, but the Giants were down at stages through the fourth quarter. The Giants dominated possession and the clearances, but could never quite put the Suns away. GWS are now a game clear inside the top eight, but a less than extravagant percentage of 104.07 means they are vulnerable to falling with a loss. Joel Patfull is back for the Giants.
In the absence of skipper Joel Selwood, Geelong produced one of its best contested ball winning performances of the year to defeat the Western Bulldogs by 8 points. Despite losing the clearance count by one, the Cats produced a +22 contested possession differential that was defining to the result. Josh Caddy stepped up to fill the void of Selwood and produced his best performance in the blue and white hoops. He ended with 37 disposals, which included 23 contested possessions, 12 clearances and 9 score involvements. He is becoming the big bull at the stoppages Geelong had always hoped for.
These clubs are ranked 16th and 18th in the competition for contested possessions and it is likely to determine who wins this game. Selwood returns, which is obviously massive for the Cats despite his slightly off form. With Duncan better for the run and Shiel missing, Geelong are good value in Canberra.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 10 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Geelong Head to Head @ $2.05
ADELAIDE ($1.23) VS GOLD COAST ($4.30)
AT ADELAIDE OVAL, SATURDAY 25/07, 14:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R6 2015 Gold Coast 11.12 (78) lost to Adelaide 18.11 (119) at MS
Line: Crows -27.5, Suns +27.5
Adelaide is coming off what I believe to be the best match of the season, a three point win against Port Adelaide which ended up being the smallest margin in Showdown history. It was high scoring, tough, emotional and close when the siren rang. The Crows were enormous in tight and around the stoppages, ending +28 for contested possession and +12 for clearances. Its contested dominance was the main reason for a 30 point three quarter time lead, before being held goalless in the last quarter. Once Adelaide lost momentum, it really struggled to keep up with Port on the outside. The players looked tired, as they did the week before against West Coast in the final quarter. It has been an exhausting few weeks for them. Rory Sloane is back for the Crows and is likely to be wearing a helmet.
Is it too lazy of an evaluation to link Gold Coast’s improved form with Gary Ablett returning? It is just amazing how much more competitive they are with the little champion in the side. It also helps that he has torn every game to shreds since he has come back. Against the Giants he gathered 30 disposals, nine clearances and singlehandedly keep his team in the game with 3 goals. His defensive pressure can be questioned at times but not last Saturday as he laid a career high 17 tackles. Fyfe who we ask? Bennell and Dixon come back into the side.
Adelaide dealt with the Suns easily away in Round 6 and shouldn’t have any problems at home. Gary Ablett does have an outstanding record against the Crows though.
ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 23 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.10
RICHMOND ($1.84) VS FREMANTLE ($2.00)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 25/07, 16:35
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R10 2015 Fremantle 10.10 (70) lost to Richmond 15.7 (97) at DS
Line: Tigers -1.5, Fremantle +1.5
The final 16 point winning margin didn’t quite justify the control Richmond held during its clash against St Kilda. The Tigers were flying at the three quarter time break with a hefty 52 point lead, before the Saints piled on six goals to nil in the final quarter to make the margin look respectable. You get a feeling the final quarter was a mix between St Kilda playing some very good footy and Richmond putting the cue in the rack. The Tigers defensive pressure dropped off dramatically in that last quarter and they were probably more than happy to get through the game unscathed for its massive clash against Fremantle.
Fremantle was far from its best against Carlton, but still came away with a 42 point win to regenerate some confidence lost from the Hawthorn flogging. Positively the Dockers kicked its highest score since Round 8 and while 95 points isn’t breathtaking, any rise is a step in the right direction. Chris Mayne carried on his much improved season to 2014 with four goals, while Pavlich looked more threatening but struggled to convert with 2.5. Hayden Ballantyne will miss the rest of the season with a torn pectoral, but has barely made an impact all season. Nathan Fyfe had another performance below his high expectations, but he’ll bounce back again soon enough. He is in doubt with a corked thigh.
Richmond started Fremantle’s rot in Round 10 and they have struggled to reach the early season highs since. The Tigers look great value head to head on form.
RICHMOND TO WIN BY 20 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Richmond Head to Head @ $1.84
ESSENDON ($2.70) VS PORT ADELAIDE ($1.46)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 25/07, 19:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R16 2014 Port Adelaide 7.18 (60) lost to Essendon 8.14 (62) at AO
Lines: Bombers +13.5, Port -13.5
Essendon surprisingly led North Melbourne at the half time break by 8 points, but were nearly singlehandedly beaten by Todd Goldstein who produced arguably the best individual performance of the season. The 196cm Shaun McKernan tried his heart out, but was constantly monstered by the massive Kangaroo. Goldstein’s dominance resulted in the Bombers losing the hit out count 20-58, while the clearance differential ended -15, including -10 at centre bounces. The Bombers recruited Jonathan Giles from GWS as a backup ruckman and with his form building at VFL level, it is time to show some faith. Strangely he has missed selection again, but is named as an emergency.
Port Adelaide were extremely brave against Adelaide in emotional circumstances, but just let the gap up to three quarter time become too large. The Power stormed home to kick six goals to nil in the final quarter, but fell agonisingly short by 3 points in arguably the best game of the year. Ken Hinkley would be disturbed that his side was so easily monstered at the stoppages, especially considering Boak, Gray and Wines collected 22 clearances combined. Port Adelaide now need a miracle to make finals from this position in a season that will feel wasted.
Port Adelaide were impressive at times against the Crows. If they can produce anything close to that, the Bombers will be swept away with ease.
PORT ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 25 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Port Adelaide Fourth Quarter Line of -3.5 points @ $1.87
BRISBANE ($3.40) VS NORTH MELBOURNE ($1.32)
AT THE GABBA, SATURDAY 25/07, 19:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R2 2015 North Melbourne 20.13 (133) dftd Brisbane Lions 7.9 (51) at ES
Line: Lions +21.5, North -21.5
Brisbane produced one of its worst performances of the season against Melbourne, registering a pitiful 36 points for the entire match in good conditions. The Lions fielded arguably its best side of the season and was never in touch with the Dees, eventually going down by 24 points. The final margin didn’t look too bad at the end of the day, but considering the two clubs couldn’t score 100 points combined, four goals was significant. Considering Brisbane dominated the clearances 42-23, a key performance indicator for both sides, the result becomes even more puzzling. The wooden spoon is calling the Lions.
North Melbourne will be primed to be at its best when Brent Harvey becomes just the fourth player in VFL/AFL history to play 400 games on Saturday night. Dustin Fletcher became just the third player to reach the feat a few weeks ago and it sure feels surreal to be celebrating another one so quickly. North Melbourne weren’t anywhere near its best against the Bombers, but Todd Goldstein certainly was. The big man confirmed his status as the best ruckman in the game, gathering 56 hit outs, 27 disposals, 8 marks, 8 clearances, all while operating at a ridiculous 92% efficiency. He also made plenty of Supercoach players happy with 221 Champion Data ranking points. Petrie and Thomas return for North.
This is the sort of game North Melbourne lose, but I’m backing them in to get the job done for Boomer.
NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 30 POINTS
No Suggested Bet
WESTERN BULLDOGS ($2.15) VS COLLINGWOOD ($1.72)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 26/07, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R13 2014 Collingwood 15.8 (98) lost to Western Bulldogs 16.10 (106) at ES
Line: Dogs +5.5, Pies -5.5
The Western Bulldogs gave up a great opportunity to jump two games clear inside the top eight against Geelong, but that horrible Simonds Stadium record only got worse. The Dogs would have backed themselves to win the contested possession and clearance categories against Geelong considering they were ranked top five in each area pregame, but looked almost surprised by the Cats intensity. The Dogs also ended with 31 less effective possessions, another area it prides itself on. Thankfully, it was obvious to see where the Dogs went wrong and Luke Beveridge shouldn’t have any problems solving such issues.
Collingwood’s fall from grace is starting to become a concern as it lost its fourth consecutive game on the weekend. The Pies are now sitting outside the eight in ninth position after an 8-3 start. As we know, it has come up against some formidable sides of late and have performed admirably, but injuries are beginning to take their toll. Travis Cloke will now join Jamie Elliott on the sidelines with a calf injury that is likely to keep him out of the side for a month. Every side would struggle if it lost its two best forwards and Collingwood are no exception. There will now be a heavy reliance on Jesse White, which isn’t an ideal situation for Nathan Buckley. The Pies season is beginning to look very familiar to 2014.
Cloke and Elliott leave massive holes for the Pies, while the midfield is still missing Taylor Adams. The Dogs beat Collingwood at Etihad last year and have played their best footy at the venue. The Dogs will continue to shorten.
WESTERN BULLDOGS TO WIN BY 10 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Dogs 1-39 @ $2.70
MELBOURNE ($1.92) VS ST KILDA ($1.92)
AT THE MCG, SUNDAY 26/07, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R11 2015 St Kilda 12.13 (85) dftd Melbourne 12.11 (83) at ES
Line: Even
Boy did the Demons play an ugly brand of football on Sunday against the Lions, but most importantly it produced an important victory. Melbourne set up the win with 5 goals in the opening quarter, three of which were kicked by Jesse Hogan in a dominant display. From quarter time though, only six more goals would be kicked for the rest of the match as Paul Roos unashamedly closed the game up. It certainly worked as Brisbane could not take advantage of its stoppage dominance. Justin Leppitsch wasn’t exactly proactive in the box either, which certainly played into Paul Roos’ hands.
The Saints were completely outplayed for a majority of “Maddies Match” against Richmond, but impressively never gave in on a night where it was expected to fight to the end. Despite Richmond dropping its intensity, the six goal to nothing final quarter produced some of the more watchable football of the weekend. It was highlighted by a running Mav Weller goal through the middle of Etihad Stadium, in which he surprised everyone with a burst of speed. Alan Richardson has his Saints playing the brand he wants and I’m sure the supporters would be enjoying it.
Tough game to predict and the Round 11 encounter only a few weeks ago doesn’t make a tip any easier. I’m going on the simple logic that Melbourne should have won that last match and play much better footy at the MCG.
MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 2 POINTS
No Suggested Bet
WEST COAST ($1.42) VS SYDNEY ($2.95)
AT DOMAIN STADIUM, SUNDAY 26/07, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R16 2014 West Coast 7.9 (51) lost to Sydney 10.19 (79) at PS
Line: Eagles -14.5, Swans +14.5
Another rated opponent, another impressive victory to the Eagles. West Coast and Adam Simpson can currently do no wrong as the winning streak extends to five. The Eagles are now a game clear in second position and have an opportunity jump two games clear of Sydney. The encounter against Collingwood was tight until the last quarter where West Coast kicked four goals to none. Some argue that the Pies injuries saw the margin blow out to 31 points, but an inside 50 count of 61-41 showed the Eagles didn’t make full use of its chances until late. Unfortunately a hamstring injury to Jeremy McGovern is likely to stretch the defensive stocks for 2-3 weeks, but the Eagles have been dealing with KPD issues all year successfully.
Sydney had been showing signs of being a long way off its best for the past month and Hawthorn more or less confirmed that with a massive win at ANZ Stadium. Big loses are something we rarely associate with the Swans, but its depth is clearing becoming exposed. Sydney somehow won the clearance and contested possession counts, but were mauled on the rebound. The Swans also were on the wrong end of 55 clangers, 13 more than Hawthorn. Sydney in its current state can’t win the flag, which leaves a frustrated John Longmire plenty of work to do. They also have their own injury issues as Tippett misses with a hand injury, while Richards misses through suspension.
Sydney have won the last eight encounters, but you get the feeling West Coast have finally overtaken its great rival of last decade. West Coast have far superior second half form, losing just 6 quarters after halftime all year compared to Sydney’s 14. The Eagles are also +438 points after halftime compared to Sydney’s +42. The West Coast second half handicap of -4.5 points is outstanding value.
WEST COAST TO WIN BY 30 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
West Coast Second Half Handicap of -4.5 points @ $1.84
