Welcome to the Round 16 AFL preview. Hawthorn has again announced itself as the team to beat in 2015 after an enormous 72 point victory against once premiership favourite Fremantle. The Hawks flexed their muscle and dominated the Dockers in most areas. It has seen Hawthorn shorten further to $3.00 for the flag, while Fremantle have now blown out to $4.50. We are now set for another blockbuster during Round 16 with the Swans hosting Hawthorn. Without really setting the world on fire, Sydney are now a clear second favourite to the Hawks and we get an opportunity to see just how far apart these clubs are. The biggest market mover has been West Coast in recent weeks, which now finds itself in single figures at $7.00. Don’t be surprised to see them overtake Fremantle in the coming rounds.
BEST BET
Hawthorn @ the -7.5 line
NORTH MELBOURNE ($1.27) VS ESSENDON ($3.90)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, FRIDAY 17/07, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R7 2015 Essendon 12.10 (82) lost to North Melbourne 13.15 (93) at ES
Line: North -25.5, Bombers +25.5
This North Melbourne team is one of the more unpredictable sides I’ve ever analysed. We have witnessed firsthand the gap between its best and worst in the last two rounds. During the Round 14 loss to Gold Coast, the players appeared to lack intensity and on some occasions interest. Against Geelong on Saturday night it was as if a completely different 22 had pulled the blue and white striped jumpers on. Todd Goldstein is developing a knack of destroying Geelong and this encounter was no exception. He is by far the best ruckman in the competition currently and is the key to the Roos finals hopes. Drew Petrie has been suspended.
The Bombers were installed outsiders against Melbourne and were under immense pressure to perform well after the St Kilda capitulation. Thankfully for James Hird, his men stepped up to the plate and produced its best performance for weeks. Essendon could only score 69 points and had just the 19 shots on goal, but it is amazing how much of a difference it makes when your key forward is kicking straight. Joe Daniher ended with 5 goals straight and considering Melbourne kicked 7.18, was probably the difference between the two clubs. The Bombers must now prove it can put two good performances together consecutively.
You never know what you are going to get with North Melbourne, but it should beat the Bombers with ease. Essendon had to rely on Joe Daniher kicking half of its goals against Melbourne, which won’t happen this week.
NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 40 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
North Melbourne @ the -25.5 Line
GEELONG ($1.70) VS WESTERN BULLDOGS ($2.20)
AT SIMONDS STADIUM, SATURDAY 18/07, 13:45
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R16 2014 Geelong 10.9 (69) dftd Western Bulldogs 7.14 (56) at SS
Line: Cats -5.5, Dogs +5.5
Geelong aren’t looking anything like a finals team coming into Round 16 and is running out of chances for a top eight finish. Whether it was the 20 day break or not, Geelong came out flat and disorganised against North Melbourne. There were countless amounts of simple goals conceded, mainly due to defenders sitting too high up the ground which saw them vulnerable on the fast rebound. It didn’t help that there were needless turnovers through the middle of the ground, mostly from low percentage decision making. The Cats were again mauled by the opposition ruckman, as Goldstein constantly gave first use to his midfielders and spread with influence. Dawson Simpson looked to lack match fitness and hardly moved out of the corridor before blowing up trying to keep up with Golstein. Joel Selwood will miss one week to suspension after an incident completely blown out of proportion by the media. Mitch Duncan makes an early return.
The Western Bulldogs looked like going down to a reinvigorated Gold Coast side when trialling by 26 points at half time, before exploding in the last quarter to kick 10 goals to 2. Once the flow of goals began, the Suns could do nothing to stem the barrage. Marcus Bontempelli stepped up to produce one of his best games, while Liam Picken carried on his outstanding season with career best numbers of 36 possessions. The Dogs are now six points clear inside the eight.
The Dogs haven’t beaten Geelong at Simonds Stadium for many years, but that is due to change. I’m surprised the Cats have been installed favourites, especially with Selwood out. The Dogs are value at $2.20 head to head.
WESTERN BULLDOGS TO WIN BY 12 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Western Bulldogs to win head to head @ $2.20
GOLD COAST ($2.05) VS GWS ($1.80)
AT METRICON STADIUM, SATURDAY 18/07, 14:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R4 2015 GWS Giants 16.23 (119) dftd Gold Coast 7.11 (53) at STO
Line: Suns +2.5, Giants -2.5
The Suns are improving with every game it plays, but you can’t concede 10 goals in the last when holding a 26 point three quarter time lead. Gold Coast fought hard to be in that position against the Dogs, but once the red, white and blue got on a roll, the Suns efforts dropped. That is probably a sign of mental exhaustion from young team that has had a tough year, but it is during the hard times that strong characters are built. Every great team goes through a stage where success looks a long way off, but it eventually makes them better. The Suns need to finish this season well and build momentum into 2016. The injury ravaged season of David Swallow has continued as he will miss the rest of the season with a knee, while Charlie Dixon is out with an ankle.
The Greater Western Sydney Giants continue to hold onto its top eight ambitions after an impressive victory against the inform Saints. In fact the Giants have jumped ahead of Adelaide to now hold eighth position. Many expected GWS to fall with the loss of Mumford, Davis and Patful, but intensity levels are still high. The Giants laid 96 tackles against St Kilda to prove that there is still plenty of grunt around the stoppages in the absence of Shane Mumford. Even though GWS had ten less inside 50s than the Saints, its efficiency going forward was outstanding considering it was a highly contested game. Dylan Shiel may miss the rest of the season with a knee injury.
The Giants looked to be running away earlier this season in the development battle of the two expansion clubs, but the Suns have evened things up since the return of Ablett. The loss of Swallow and Dixon has me leaning slightly toward the Giants
GWS TO WIN BY 9 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
GWS 1-39 @ $2.40
COLLINGWOOD ($2.30) VS WEST COAST ($1.64)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 18/07, 16:35
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R20 2014 West Coast 19.12 (126) dftd Collingwood 10.6 (66) at PS
Line: Pies +7.5, Eagles -7.5
Collingwood have put together three gallant performances against Fremantle, Hawthorn and Port Adelaide consecutively, but ultimately haven’t come home with any points for these games. Thankfully, the Pies finally have a top eight scalp, but it is only due to GWS sneaking back into the top eight. In fact, Collingwood and GWS are now only separated by percentage as the losses continue to add up. The Pies face another tough opponent in West Coast on the weekend and a loss could see it drop outside the eight. Collingwood are playing good football, but respectful losses only build further pressure. Taylor Adams will miss two games through suspension, while Jamie Elliott is out with a back. Levi Greenwood will make his long awaited debut for the Pies.
West Coast is really beginning to announce itself as a genuine premiership threat. It has now shortened to $7.00 for the premiership, but there are a growing amount of experts who believe this side has the most potent tools to bring down Hawthorn. The Eagles were plain and simply outstanding against the Crows. Adelaide fought hard to stay in the game, but any challenge was met with West Coast changing to a higher gear. Statistically, the final 56 point margin was more than justified after blowing out late. I think the Eagles may well be the real deal.
Collingwood would much prefer to be playing this game at the MCG, which surely makes West Coast very tempting at the line.
WEST COAST TO WIN BY 26 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
West Coast @ the -7.5 Line
SYDNEY ($2.35) VS HAWTHORN ($1.62)
AT ANZ STADIUM, SATURDAY 18/07, 19:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R8 2015 Hawthorn 9.15 (69) lost to Sydney 11.7 (73) at the MCG
Line: Swans +7.5, Hawks -7.5
The Sydney Swans looked in serious trouble when Brisbane led by 6 points at the 24 minute mark of the third quarter. Brisbane appeared to be building momentum, before Buddy Franklin changed the game with three consecutive goals from the 26th minute of the third to the 28 second mark of the fourth quarter. He was quiet for a majority of the game, but is paid the big bucks to win matches in only minutes. Kurt Tippett also had an impact with three goals, while taking a large chunk of the ruck duties with 31 hit outs. Josh Kennedy went large with 27 contested possessions, while Dan Hannebery was prolific as always. This is a big test for Sydney as they have been far from their best of late. Ted Richards is back for the Swans from concussion.
Hawthorn has now developed a gap between it and the rest for premiership favouritism. The Hawks have now shortened to $3.00 for the three-peat and should it comfortably defeat Sydney, that figure could quickly drop toward $2.50. It currently have no doubt that Hawthorn are the best team in the competition, but there is plenty of water to pass under the bridge. Alastair Clarkson obviously has some experience in preparing premiership sides, so anyone fearing they could be peaking too early really need to think again. Roughead is back for the Hawks.
Sydney have won seven of their last eight games, but you feel that form is exaggerated on paper. Hawthorn are just beginning to hit top form and I feel they are value at the line.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 28 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Hawthorn @ -7.5 Line
FREMANTLE ($1.10) VS CARLTON ($7.50)
AT DOMAIN STADIUM, SATURDAY 18/07, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R19 2014 Fremantle 12.11 (83) dftd Carlton 11.12 (78) at PS
Line: Freo -42.5, Blues +42.5
The 72 point loss against Hawthorn has left many questioning exactly where Fremantle is at. The early season form that saw the Dockers near unbeatable at times has completely evaporated and the scoring issue continues to deepen. Ross Lyon’s men were dismantled in nearly every category, but it was the lopsided numbers at the stoppages that were most concerning. Fremantle were -19 for clearances, including 8-17 at the centre bounces. Hawthorn didn’t appear to implement any fancy structures, they simply went man on man against the likes of Fyfe, Mundy and Neale. Despite the poor stoppage numbers, scoring is still probably the highest priority. The Dockers desperately need a tall to step up and support a declining Matthew Pavlich.
Carlton weren’t terrible against Richmond by any means, but you just never felt they were right in the game. Matthew Kreuzer wasn’t paid a mark during a key moment, but Richmond always seemed to have control. Carlton ended up -16 for both inside 50s and contested possession, deficits that are never going to help a winning cause. Unfortunately the Blues have been struck by injury with Gibbs out for the year (torn pectoral) and Dennis Armfield requiring surgery (broken arm).
Fremantle get a great opportunity to turn things around against Carlton. Expect the Dockers to focus on scoring, but I feel the Blues can get within that +42.5 line.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 28 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Carlton @ the +42.5 Line
MELBOURNE ($1.57) VS BRISBANE ($2.40)
AT THE MCG, SUNDAY 19/07, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R19 2014 Melbourne 6.15 (51) lost to Brisbane Lions 11.8 (74) at ES
Line: Dees -9.5, Lions +9.5
Paul Roos has had to deal with some frustrating moments this year at Melbourne and Saturday was right up there. Poor efficiency and finishing ruined the Demons chances of beating Essendon. The Dees come back hard in the last, but a poor third quarter created too much of a gap to chase down in sloppy conditions. Melbourne ended with 13 more inside 50s and were dominant at the centre bounces, but just couldn’t convert. Melbourne staff and supporters all would have had high expectations on winning this game, especially after holding solid favouritism going into the match. There are still plenty of positives to take out of the match to prove the club is on the right track.
Brisbane are beginning to string together a nice list of competitive efforts, but are too often falling over in the last quarter. The Lions held leads in the second half of third quarters against all of Adelaide, Fremantle and Sydney, but dropped off during the final 30 minutes in each encounter. Justin Leppitsch would be frustrated to have not won any of those games, but the improvement is obvious. Key players have returned to the side and are having impacts, but the Lions must now perform against a side further down the ladder in Melbourne. Martin, Harwood and Robinson return for Brisbane.
Melbourne are always better at the MCG and probably have the more consistent stoppage form. Tight to predict though.
MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 9 POINTS
No Suggested Bet
PORT ADELAIDE ($1.62) VS ADELAIDE ($2.30)
AT ADELAIDE OVAL, SUNDAY 19/07, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R5 2015 Adelaide 13.13 (91) lost to Port Adelaide 18.7 (115) at AO
Line: Port -8.5, Crows +8.5
Port Adelaide held on to win from a fast finishing Collingwood side in emotional circumstances last Thursday night. It was the first time the Power had taken to the field since the death of Phil Walsh, who had spent many years at the club. A large percentage of the players on the night would have had an association with Walsh last year and it showed on their faces. Even the incredibly calm Ken Hinkley battled to fight back the tears on a night that was so much more than about footy. That emotion will be present again on Sunday during the Showdown.
The Adelaide players also participated in their first match without Phil Walsh on Saturday, as Scott Camporeale was handed the coaching reins. As a senior coach, there is probably no one who has had a greater impact on the Adelaide player’s lives than Phil Walsh this year, so playing just a week after his death is an enormous effort in itself. They fought hard against a very good side in West Coast, but you could clearly tell that their minds were elsewhere. The club is slowly but surely getting back to normality, but the effects could linger for a long time.
These two clubs are usually the fiercest of rivals, but will come together to honour the life of Phil Walsh. The players will go 100% once the ball is bounced, but like I said last week, it is impossible to predict emotion. I generally can’t split this game and won’t be betting on it.
ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 1 POINT
No Suggested Bet
ST KILDA ($3.15) VS RICHMOND ($1.38)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 19/07, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R22 2014 Richmond 15.8 (98) dftd St Kilda 10.12 (72) at the MCG
Line: Saints +19.5, Tigers -19.5
St Kilda were building some impressive form, but couldn’t hit the highs of recent weeks. I genuinely thought the Saints would be far too strong at the stoppages, but the Giants won both the clearances and contested possession. St Kilda won the hit outs comfortably in the absence of Mumford and considering the contested nature of the encounter, would be disappointed it couldn’t take advantage of that count. Armitage and Steven weren’t anywhere near as dominant, while Bruce and Riewoldt could only kick three goals between them. Riewoldt is in doubt with a calf, but will be desperate to get up as the game is in honour of his late sister Maddie.
You can always tell a team is in good shape when they start winning games comfortably despite not playing anywhere near their best. You get the feeling that Richmond are beginning to become that type of side. It has done what has been needed over the last two weeks against Carlton and GWS, but tend to lift a level against the better sides. It will be interesting to see what is produced against a side like St Kilda, as a percentage boost certainly wouldn’t hurt. Richmond will be without the underrated Shane Edwards for a few weeks, after x-rays showed a hairline fracture in his leg.
Richmond have won its last five encounters against St Kilda and I fully expect that to become six. In saying that, St Kilda play better football at Etihad Stadium.
RICHMOND TO WIN BY 17 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Quarter by Quarter Leader Richmond/Richmond/Richmond/Richmond @ $2.10
