Welcome to the Round 15 AFL preview. Unfortunately results took a back row seat during Round 14 as the industry mourned the death of an enormous contributor in Adelaide Coach Phil Walsh. He was an individual that those on the outside were only just beginning to know, but famed for his passion and attention to detail on the inside. He was an intriguing character that will be greatly missed and it is a shame that a majority of football lovers/followers only got a small taste of how his detailed mind performed.
You have to be proud with the way the league and football community has reacted to such a tragic situation. Everyone who attended games were respectful and every decision made by administration carefully considered. The Adelaide vs Geelong game could never go ahead and the clubs will share two points each. While there was a consideration to award four points to both clubs, the final outcome was the fairest for all 18 sides. Brownlow votes will be allocated to the eight games that went ahead during Round 14, with the Adelaide vs Geelong clash obviously excluded. Phil Walsh has had an involvement with many clubs throughout the competition, but it is his recent association at Adelaide, Port Adelaide and West Coast that will see the most people impacted by his death.
BEST BET
Hawthorn @ the -15.5 line
PORT ADELAIDE ($1.92) VS COLLINGWOOD ($1.92)
AT ADELAIDE OVAL, THURSDAY 09/07, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R19 2014 Collingwood 11.10 (76) dftd Port Adelaide 10.10 (70) at the MCG
Line: Even
Port Adelaide are a club that had a long involvement over two periods with Phil Walsh and thankfully the players were able to perform before the incident occurred. Walsh is credited as being a driving force for Port Adelaide’s run to the Preliminary Final in 2014 and a high percentage of players would have dealt with him. Port Adelaide were impressive against Sydney last Thursday night, but it is extremely difficult to know how they’ll perform after a week of mourning. The Power desperately need to win this game to keep their finals hopes alive, but you couldn’t blame them for that not being the highest priority at this point in time.
Collingwood have produced impressive performances consecutively against premiership contenders, but are still yet to defeat a top eight side. I don’t think that will worry Nathan Buckley too much as his team has now proven that it can compete against the best. The Pies destroyed Hawthorn on the inside and around the stoppages, finishing +20 for contested possession and +13 for clearances. They are pleasing numbers and a standard that must be set for the remainder of the season. Poor kicking for goal again haunted Collingwood as Cloke and White continued their inaccurate runs. It is a skill that isn’t improving for the Magpie talls and it would be infuriating for the coaching staff.
It is impossible to know how Port Adelaide will perform, but you’d have to say Collingwood are decent value at $1.92 head to head on recent form alone.
COLLINGWOOD TO WIN BY 15 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Collingwood head to head @ $1.92
RICHMOND ($1.35) VS CARLTON ($3.15)
AT THE MCG, FRIDAY 10/07, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R1 2015 Carlton 11.12 (78) lost to Richmond 15.15 (105) at the MCG
Line: Tigers -19.5, Blues +19.5
Richmond went into the game against GWS as a firm favourite, but you always felt in the back of your mind that it was the type of game this side loses. The Tigers statistically won nearly every key category, while most of the high profile players had an impact on the game. That would suggest that the Tigers win comfortably, but it wasn’t the case as the plucky Giants fought to the end. Eleven behinds in the second half probably made things tighter than it should have been and the fact that Richmond fought back from 14 points down early in the last showed the change of character of the team. If anything Richmond further enhanced a growing reputation from that performance. Ivan Maric is out suspended.
Carlton kicked the last three goals of the game against the Western Bulldogs to make the scoreboard look respectable, but it was still a performance of relevance. It was yet another game of development into the younger players and they certainly aren’t packing in games like earlier in the season. The likes of Nick Graham have had an impact since they have been introduced into the side and it really makes you wonder why Mick Malthouse wasn’t giving them greater opportunities. Unfortunately Graham has injured a foot, but Carrazzo, Gibbs and Menzel are back for the Blues.
Richmond are just beginning to develop a knack of beating Carlton after years of lopsided results. A win against the Blues will make it three consecutively.
RICHMOND TO WIN BY 26 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Richmond/Richmond/Richmond/Richmond Quarter by Quarter Leader @ $2.10
ESSENDON ($2.35) VS MELBOURNE ($1.58)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 11/07, 13:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R1 2015 Carlton 11.12 (78) lost to Richmond 15.15 (105) at the MCG
Line: Bombers +8.5, Dees -8.5
Sunday can only be described as a disaster for Essendon and James Hird as the club lost to a spirited St Kilda line up to the tune of 110 points. The coaches and players were speechless when asked to describe what went wrong. The statistics were just as embarrassing as the final margin, as most differentials completely blew out. 192 uncontested possessions to 311 proved that players weren’t willing to work hard, while 26 marks inside 50 to St Kilda showed the Bombers were unaccountable defensively. Jobe Watson ended the game with just one kick, but it was revealed he has been battling a shoulder injury and will miss the rest of the season. Adam Cooney has also succumbed to a hamstring injury.
Melbourne were brought back down to earth in Darwin, albeit against a side that is looking quite sharp. The Dees just couldn’t replicate the stoppage dominance of Round 12 at Simonds Stadium, mainly due to skills of Nic Naitanui. Melbourne kept in touch all the way up to three quarter time, before being blown away in the last to see the margin out to nine goals. Despite the margin getting away from Paul Roos and his men, it wasn’t an all-out negative performance. The Dees broke even with West Coast’s strong midfield, which in my opinion is a win in itself.
Excluding the 148 point capitulation in 2013, Melbourne have an outstanding record against Essendon. It has won four of the last five encounters and on recent form, that should become five from six.
MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 23 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Bernie Vince Most Possessions Group 1 @ $4.50
WESTERN BULLDOGS ($1.70) VS GOLD COAST ($2.20)
AT CAZALYS STADIUM, CAIRNS, SATURDAY 11/07, 16:35
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R17 2014 Western Bulldogs 13.16 (94) dftd Gold Coast 9.12 (66) at CS
Line: Dogs -5.5, Suns +5.5
The Western Bulldogs continue making its finals equation easier with every round that passes, having won four of its last five matches. In saying that, you just get a feeling that the football public aren’t quite yet convinced with the Dogs. In reality, no one could have expected the Dogs to achieve what they have thus far. The final 11 point margin on the weekend wasn’t comprehensive, but it must be remembered that Carlton made the result look respectable with the final three goals. With an 8-5 record, the Dogs only need to win four of its last nine games to win a finals position. A good draw makes such a possibility very likely.
After a horrible week off the field, the Gold Coast Suns finally had something to smile about due to an upset 55 point win against North Melbourne. It is hard not to recognise the return of Gary Ablett and David Swallow coincided with a far more competitive Suns attitude. The now bearded little champion gave a nice reminder to Nathan Fyfe that the No.1 player in the competition mantle is not clear cut, as Ablett collected 31 disposals and kicked 3 goals. The dominance of Charlie Dixon was the main talking point though, as the out of contract forward snagged 7 goals to see his value rise further. Let’s hope we see more of this form from the Suns as they are exciting to watch when on.
All of a sudden this game doesn’t look like the walk in the park it once was for the Dogs. The Suns would have gained plenty of confidence from that performance and with less distance to travel, must be considered a sneaky chance. The Dogs often lift to a challenge though.
WESTERN BULLDOGS TO WIN BY 2 POINTS
No Suggested Bet
NORTH MELBOURNE ($1.90) VS GEELONG ($1.90)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 11/07, 19:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R4 2015 Geelong 9.13 (67) lost to North Melbourne 12.11 (83) at SS
Line: Even
North Melbourne would have travelled to the Gold Coast very confident of a win against the Suns, but went home with a worse percentage and now sit six points outside the eight. It was a horror result for the Kangaroos, as Darren Crocker would have loved to hand the reins back to Brad Scott with the team in better shape than when he left. There was no particular area that North were beaten badly, they simply weren’t as efficient as the Suns. The one shining light for North Melbourne is that it isn’t season over, especially considering a very friendly draw home. But they can’t just assume the wins will occur, the players must stand up. Lachie Hansen is out with a hip injury, while Lindsay Thomas has been dropped.
Geelong finds itself in a unique position where it enters this match on the back of a 20 day midseason break. The cancellation of its clash against Adelaide has created an unprecedented situation, as no club has had such a long gap between games for decades. Many at Geelong have stated that the players wanted to return to the field as soon as possible after the disappointing result against Melbourne, so the break will feel like an eternity to some. Jimmy Bartel made a successful to return through the VFL on Saturday and will play. Dawson Simpson will be called upon to limit the Todd Goldstein damage.
The stoppages will determine this game and if Geelong produce anything like it did against Melbourne, Goldstein could win the game singlehandedly. The inclusion of Bartel, Kelly and Simpson will help immensely though and its turnover prowess can expose a shaken North side. If Goldstein is controlled, Geelong can win.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 6 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Geelong Quarter Time Leader @ $1.89
WEST COAST ($1.21) VS ADELAIDE ($4.40)
AT DOMAIN STADIUM, SATURDAY 11/07, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R19 2014 Adelaide 16.9 (105) lost to West Coast 20.16 (136) at AO
Line: Eagles -30.5, Crows +30.5
It was yet another impressive performance from West Coast as it blew away a competitive Melbourne side in the final quarter. If you weren’t already convinced, the Eagles further confirmed it possesses the most dangerous forward setup in the competition as Jack Darling kicked five goals to prove its flexibility. The combination of Kennedy in the air, Le Cras around the packs, Jack Darling on the lead and Jamie Cripps’ defensive pressure is salivating to even opposition coaches. Only Hawthorn have scored more points than West Coast, which is impressive considering the Eagles defensive structures. I’m really looking forward to seeing how this side performs come September.
The Adelaide Football Club are in mourning after news surfaced that its senior coach Phil Walsh had been murdered by his son on Friday morning. Even writing about it nearly a week later, it just doesn’t seem real that such an incident can occur. Like most senior coaches are, Phil Walsh was seen as a father figure to players he had only been in charge of for nine months or so. He had such an enormous impact on these people in such a short time, which is tragically ironic considering the circumstance of his death. Scott Camporeale will take over as interim coach, with John Worsfold brought to the club as a director. It is hard to even imagine the players playing this week, let alone perform to an elite standard.
I won’t be betting on this game. Emotion is too difficult to predict. On form, West Coast deserve its favouritism.
WEST COAST TO WIN BY 26 POINTS
No Suggested Bet
GWS ($1.60) VS ST KILDA ($2.35)
AT SPOTLESS STADIUM, SUNDAY 12/07, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R1 2015 St Kilda 11.12 (78) lost to GWS Giants 12.15 (87) at ES
Line: Giants -7.5, Saints +7.5
The Giants came to play against Richmond and found itself 14 points up at the eight minute mark of the final quarter. Some of the Tigers guns stepped it up from there and GWS couldn’t hold them off. Despite the loss there was still plenty to take out of the game for Leon Cameron and his men. Although the Giants were soundly beaten through the middle by the end of the game, there was improvement in the area. Downie was competitive against Maric despite conceding far more hit outs. The ruck is an area that GWS must develop fast as Mumford is injury prone and not getting any younger. Downie, Lobb and Phillips all look like decent prospects, but still need plenty of work. Stephen Coniglio returns for the Giants
St Kilda produced one of the more dominant and surprising results of the season, annihilating Essendon by an amazing 110 points. No one could predict that this margin could blow out to such proportions, especially the Saints players who completed the job with smiles on their faces. Armitage, Steven and Bruce all continued their elite seasons, while Nick Riewoldt doesn’t look like slowing down any time soon with 4 goals and 12 marks. The Saints have a relatively experienced spine and on top of an inform midfield, the remaining gaps are easier to fill. They will surprise some top eight sides in the next nine weeks.
As competitive as GWS were against Richmond, they could have been out of the game earlier. The Saints are a genuine chance and with GWS still lacking depth defensively due to injury, the form forward due of Riewoldt and Bruce could cause serious problems.
ST KILDA TO WIN BY 20 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
St Kilda Head to Head @ $2.35
HAWTHORN ($1.43) VS FREMANTLE ($2.85)
AT AURORA STADIUM, SUNDAY 12/07, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R21 2014 Fremantle 17.8 (110) dftd Hawthorn 13.13 (91) at PS
Line: Hawks -15.5, Freo +15.5
Hawthorn had to fight tooth and nail for the win against Collingwood and if it wasn’t for Cyril Rioli, the points probably wouldn’t have been theirs. Some are describing Cyril’s performance as one of the best 10 possession games of all time and when you look closer it isn’t hard to see why. From these 10 disposals he produced 8 score involvements, 5 goals and operated at 100% efficiency. It wasn’t just his work with the ball, he was brilliant defensively as usual. His effort to start the chain that ended with the Breust match winning goal was one of the best individual acts of the season. Hawthorn were smashed at the stoppages by Collingwood, a category that is vital to winning games against Fremantle.
The Dockers yet again failed to produce its best football on the weekend, but is still sitting pretty two games clear on top of the ladder with just the one loss. The Dockers couldn’t shake Brisbane in wet conditions until the last quarter where it kicked 7 goals to 1. Fremantle’s scoring has dropped off dramatically in the last few rounds after averaging 97.25 points per game from Rounds 1-8. Since Round 9, the Dockers are only averaging 71 points per game. They have had to deal with some sloppy conditions, but to be a premiership contender it must score more often.
This is a potential Grand Final preview and arguably the biggest game Aurora Stadium has hosted. Hawthorn have won 20 of its last 21 games at the venue, including the last 13 consecutively. The Hawks will want to flex its muscle against its biggest flag rival. Fremantle’s current form is questionable.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 35 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Hawthorn @ the -15.5 Line
BRISBANE ($6.00) VS SYDNEY ($1.13)
AT THE GABBA, SUNDAY 12/07, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R7 2014 Brisbane Lions 6.8 (44) lost to Sydney 18.15 (123) at G
Line: Lions +37.5, Swans -37.5
The Brisbane Lions looked capable of producing one of the upsets of the season against Fremantle at three quarter time, before conceding 7 goals in the last quarter. After suffering stoppage woes throughout the entire season to date, Brisbane impressively ended with a +2 differential against the kings of clearances Fremantle in that exact category. Obviously the terrible wet conditions helped the Lion’s cause, but they scrapped hard against the bigger Docker bodies. Unfortunately, one its most desperate against Fremantle Mitch Robinson will miss 2-4 weeks through injury. Positively, that is more than balanced out by the returns of the skipper Tom Rockliff, Pearce Hanley and Daniel Merrett.
Sydney really struggled to shrug off an improved Port Adelaide last week, before eventually grinding to a 10 point win. The Swans were -41 for total disposals and -4 for inside 50s, making things even tougher without its multimillion dollar forwards. Thankfully Sam Reid stepped up in the absence of Franklin and Tippett, kicking three first half goals. Franklin and Tippett return to the fold this week after serving suspensions, but the unlucky Gary Rohan will spend another extended period on the sidelines after injuring his hamstring.
As impressive as Brisbane were against Fremantle for three quarters, it is impossible not to tip the Swans here. They have been dominant against the Lions of late.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 51 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Sydney 40+ @ $2.00
