Welcome to the Round 14 AFL preview. Round 14 sees the competition return to normality with no more bye rounds and nine games of footy during the weekend. On a betting perspective, I’m glad to see the end of the bye rounds as trends were far more difficult to read. Some clubs had shorter breaks between games, while others returned from the bye flat. I am noticing a pattern over the last few years that my personal returns haven’t been as successful during this time of the season. I’d like to see the AFL implement a system that prevents clubs off the bye coming up against opposition that has played the previous round. Not only does this create a fairer fixture, but hopefully it means more predictable results for the punters.
BEST BET
West Coast @ the -6.5 Third Quarter Line
SYDNEY ($1.50) VS PORT ADELAIDE ($2.60)
AT THE SCG, THURSDAY 02/07, 19:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R2 2015 Port Adelaide 6.8 (44) lost to Sydney 14.8 (92) at AO
Line: Swans -12.5, Port +12.5
John Longmire will be furious after the Swans shock loss to Richmond in Round 13, giving up a perfect opportunity to be a game clear in second position. Sydney looked to be cruising to victory when it led the Tigers by 32 points at half time, but you could have been confused that the teams swapped jumpers in the second half. The Tigers came out with a 7 to 2 goal third quarter, snatching an unlikely lead by three quarter time. The Swans were outscored by a further three goals in the final quarter, as the scoring opportunities completely closed up. Franklin obviously had his mind elsewhere after a nasty incident with Shane Edwards, which saw the big forward suspended for a week. The Swans will also be without Kurt Tippett due to suspension, leaving Sam Reid plenty of work to do up forward. Mike Pyke is back for the Swans.
Port Adelaide desperately needed a break to regroup and reassess its season, but the loss Carlton would have hurt for the full two weeks. The Power don’t look close to recapturing the 2014 form that nearly saw it reach a Grand Final. Clubs have successfully shut down Port Adelaide’s attacking run and Ken Hinkley is struggling to implement ideas to solve it. I’m looking forward to seeing what Hinkley has in store after the bye tactically, as he has one of the best minds in the competition. Patrick Ryder finally returns after an extended absence.
The loss of Franklin and Tippett has seen the Swans odds out to $1.53, but you would have to think their defensive strengths will be enough to get over the battling Power.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 20 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Brad Ebert 25 Disposals or More @ $1.89
COLLINGWOOD ($3.40) VS HAWTHORN ($1.32)
AT THE MCG, FRIDAY 03/07, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R23 2014 Collingwood 8.8 (56) lost to Hawthorn 18.13 (121) at the MCG
Line: Pies +21.5, Hawks -21.5
Collingwood gained plenty of admirers last Thursday night against Fremantle, going down to the ladder leader by just seven points. The Pies matched or bettered Fremantle in most areas, but struggled to contain Aaron Sandiland’s ruck dominance who gave the likes of Fyfe, Neale and Mundy silver service from the stoppages. As much as Collingwood are perfectly placed for a tilt at the double chance, they are still yet to defeat a current top eight side. An opportunity against the premiership favourite on Friday night will be welcomed by Nathan Buckley.
Hawthorn confirmed its premiership favouritism against Essendon with a comfortable 38 point win on Saturday. While the Hawks weren’t at their complete best, they seemed 100% in control of the result. While there were minimal negatives to take out of the performance, the slow starts would be of concern for Alastair Clarkson. The Hawks have won 7 of 12 first quarters in 2015, but the opening 20 minutes have seen substantial margins given up quickly before eventually evening the ledger during time on. The Hawks are more often than not good enough to ensure it doesn’t affect a result, but there are times during the 2015 season where they have left their run too late. Rioli returns for the Hawks, but they will be without Roughead for 2-3 weeks after the big forward had melanoma removed from his lip. James Frawley’s injury plagued first season at Hawthorn continued as he will now miss multiple weeks with a shoulder.
Hawthorn have had Collingwood’s measure since the epic 2011 Preliminary Final, winning all seven encounters. I expect that to become eight.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 23 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.20
RICHMOND ($1.20) VS GWS ($4.75)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 04/07, 13:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R19 2014 Richmond 13.11 (89) dftd GWS Giants 8.14 (62) at the MCG
Line: Tigers -29.5, Giants +29.5
Is it now time to treat Richmond as a serious premiership contender? After wins away to Fremantle and Sydney over the last month, you would have to say yes. The thing is, when Richmond are going well, the poor performances are easily forgotten. At 7-5, the Tigers would be perfectly placed for a top two position had it not gone down to the likes of Melbourne and the Dogs early in the season. Even the performance against West Coast lacked intensity, much like the first half against Sydney. If Richmond can come out with the same high intensity levels every week, then I’ll be more than happy to believe the hype and jump on the train.
The Giants had their first encounter without Mumford in Round 12 and they didn’t look anywhere near as dangerous. Rory Lobb batted hard on his own against Goldstein, but ultimately conceded a record hit out tally. The clearances took the biggest hit though, as North Melbourne almost doubled the Giants count. Waite and Petrie also looked dangerous up forward, as the loss of Davis and Patful took its toll at that end of the ground. The Giants have dropped out of the eight, but are still only one game outside the top four. The season isn’t shot just yet.
Teams in contention defeat injury ravaged development sides. Therefore Richmond should win comfortably.
RICHMOND TO WIN BY 40 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Jack Riewoldt Most Goals @ $2.50
GOLD COAST ($4.10) VS NORTH MELBOURNE ($1.25)
AT METRICON STADIUM, SATURDAY 04/07, 16:35
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R7 2014 North Melbourne 11.11 (77) lost to Gold Coast 18.12 (120) at ES
Line: Suns +26.5, North -26.5
The nightmare season of the Gold Coast Suns continued on its downward spiral, losing to Carlton by 34 points. Unfortunately for the Suns, the loss was the least of their problems as Karmichael Hunt provided evidence to police that has seen up to a dozen past & present Gold Coast players linked to drug use. The problem became even worse on Thursday when photos of Harley Bennell were published in the papers, seemingly of him possessing drugs. Bennell will miss the clash with North Melbourne. It really was the last thing Rodney Eade needed, who has unknowingly fallen into a football club in a bad state. He will play an enormous role in correcting the culture of this club, which may take years. In positive news, Gary Ablett will finally return to the field after a shoulder injury that has lingered longer than most expected. David Swallow also returns to further strengthen the midfield.
North Melbourne were impressive against the Giants in Round 12, but it is difficult to know exactly how good they were considering the oppositions injury woes. One thing we do know is that Todd Goldstein has lifted to yet another level in 2015. He is averaging around two more disposals per game and nearly 10 more hit outs this season compared to last. He broke the hit out league record against the Giants, becoming the first player to record 80 taps. He is in All Australian form and should be polling plenty of Brownlow votes.
North Melbourne are in a much better state on and off the field than Gold Coast, which should be indicated on the scoreboard come Saturday. North must be considered at the line.
NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 45 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
North Melbourne @ the -26.5 line.
WESTERN BULLDOGS ($1.50) VS CARLTON ($2.65)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 04/07, 19:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R5 2014 Western Bulldogs 13.13 (91) lost to Carlton 18.11 (119) at ES
Line: Dogs -13.5, Blues +13.5
The Western Bulldogs had to fight hard for the points against St Kilda yet again, but this time came away win an important victory. If it wasn’t for some brilliant intercept possessions from Easton Wood, the Dogs could have easily fallen to St Kilda for the second time this year. The Saints appear to match up well against the Dogs, especially in the middle and around the stoppages where things were quite one sided. The Dogs ended with differentials of -21 for contested possession and -7 for clearances, as the Saints inform midfield held control for a majority of the game. The Dogs inside numbers haven’t been all that bad in 2015, so it looks as though St Kilda have implemented their homework well.
Carlton continued its form turnaround under the direction of John Barker, easily accounting for the struggling Suns. The Blues probably should of won this game more convincingly based on some extremely one sided statistics. Carlton ended +30 for contested possession, +22 for clearances and +130 for total disposals. Poor kicking arguably cost Carlton a 10 goal victory, but you suspect that two consecutive victories is more than satisfactory considering 2015 results. Unfortunately the Blues will be without youngsters Sam Docherty and Troy Menzel due to hamstring and knee injuries respectively.
I’m interested to see how the Dogs come out as the pattern of low intensity performances against lower quality continues. It can’t afford to take Carlton lightly.
WESTERN BULLDOGS TO WIN BY 8 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.25
MELBOURNE ($3.80) VS WEST COAST ($1.26)
AT TIO STADIUM, DARWIN, SATURDAY 04/07, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R22 2014 West Coast 18.11 (119) dftd Melbourne 8.5 (53) at PS
Line: Dees +25.5, Eagles -25.5
Melbourne produced arguably the clubs best win in the last decade, destroying Corey Enright’s 300th game celebrations by beating Geelong at Simonds Stadium. The Dees ruck combination dominated Geelong’s limited tall options, particularly Max Gawn who had a break out game with 44 hit outs and 19 disposals. Melbourne slaughtered Geelong in the contested possession and clearance counts, while also ensuring key playmakers were kept quiet. Bernie Vince continued his outstanding season with another 38 disposals, proving to be one of Melbourne’s best recruits for many years. The real challenge for Melbourne now is to back it up. Jesse Hogan is back in the side for Melbourne.
West Coast are becoming harder to ignore with every game it plays and are now brilliantly placed for not only a run at the double chance, but a home Qualifying Final. The win against Richmond can’t be underestimated, especially considering the recent scalps Richmond have accumulated. West Coast overcame a poor recent MCG record to beat the inform Tigers, as its defensive structures earned further praise from the industry. The Eagles had 32 more effective disposals than Richmond, not because they are better users of the footy, but by limiting their opposition’s options. West Coast are displaying a brand of football that could go deep into September and must be taken seriously.
West Coast have a recent record of dominance against Melbourne, but so did Geelong. The Eagles are far better equipped than Geelong at the stoppages though and won’t have any issues. West Coast have also been brilliant after half time, particular in the third where it has won 10 of 12 quarters. Melbourne have only won four third quarters, making the -6.5 third quarter line good value.
WEST COAST TO WIN BY 36 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
West Coast @ the -6.5 Third Quarter Line
ESSENDON ($1.65) VS ST KILDA ($2.25)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 05/07, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R5 2015 St Kilda 11.14 (80) lost to Essendon 11.16 (82) at ES
Line: Bombers -6.5, Saints +6.5
Essendon had its moments against Hawthorn, but couldn’t produce an upset like earlier in the season. The Bombers never looked in control of the game as Hawthorn lifted to another level whenever it needed to. Jake Carlisle was finally starting to show some positive signs up forward with three goals, but a very unlucky ankle injury in the final seconds of the game will see him miss 4-6 weeks. This creates further forward uncertainty for Essendon, who are already ranked 16th for points scored in 2015. There is no obvious replacement in the VFL, which may lead to a restructure of the talls already in the side. David Zaharakis is back for the Bombers
St Kilda are playing better footy than their 4-8 record suggests, especially at Etihad Stadium. The Saints nearly knocked off the rising Western Bulldogs for the second time in 2015, which is no mean feat considering their record against top eight sides. St Kilda were far too strong in tight for the Dogs, comfortably controlling the contested possession and clearances all night. It was a solid allround effort from the Saints who probably had more contributors than usual. Sam Fisher’s injury plagued career continued, this time hurting his back when picking up a load of washing at home. He is in doubt despite being named.
St Kilda shocked Essendon in Round 5 and I believe they are more than capable for reproducing that result. The Bombers are low on confidence, personnel and are still struggling to kick winning scores. The Saints are value head to head.
ST KILDA TO WIN BY 12 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
St Kilda head to head @ $2.25
FREMANTLE ($1.04) VS BRISBANE ($11.00)
AT DOMAIN STADIUM, SUNDAY 05/07, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R22 2014 Brisbane Lions 6.12 (48) lost to Fremantle 15.16 (106) at G
Line: Dockers -54.5, Lions +54.5
Fremantle got across the line against an impressive Collingwood line-up, but that hasn’t stopped the doubters raising questions about Ross Lyon’s men. Aaron Sandiland’s and his midfield brigade of Fyfe, Neale and Mundy were ultimately the difference between the two sides. Sandiland’s dominance in the ruck saw those three mentioned midfielders win 35 clearances combined, which ended up becoming match defining. There certainly has been a slip in form by the Dockers, but June/July isn’t the time to be peaking. We saw what Fremantle are capable of earlier in the season, Ross Lyon just has to ensure those highs are reached at the right time of the season.
Brisbane were impressive for the first three quarters against Adelaide, but were helped by some terrible turnovers from its opposition. The Lions looked to have the win sealed up at the final break with a 24 point lead, but Adelaide finally made things work in the last quarter which left the home side goalless. Unfortunately the Lions will lose another couple of key players in Stefan Martin and Pearce Hanley to suspension and injury respectively. Positively, the return of Daniel Merrett and Tom Rockliff is imminent.
Fremantle have won the last seven times against Brisbane and given them a real touch up in recent encounters. This could get ugly.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 68 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Total Game Score Under 166.5 points
