Welcome to the Round 13 AFL preview. Plain and simple, there were some results during Round 12 that left many of us scratching our heads. Despite the fact that there were equally as many predictable encounters, the upsets were mind boggling. The Richmond vs West Coast game was more or less toss of the coin, so I’m happy to leave that result out of the conversation. It all started on Saturday when a far more organised Carlton side defeated once premiership contender Port Adelaide. Ken Hinkley would have been desperate to go into the bye on a positive note, but instead will now be stewing over a disappointing result for two weeks. Then there was the completely unexpected loss of Geelong over Melbourne, a result that looked a lock pre-round considering form and the fact it was Corey Enright’s 300th game. Both Port Adelaide and Geelong have missed important opportunities going into their breaks and now face challenging runs home to make the final eight.
BEST BET
Adelaide @ the -22.5 line
FREMANTLE ($1.24) VS COLLINGWOOD ($4.25)
AT DOMAIN STADIUM, THURSDAY 25/06, 20:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R1 2014 Collingwood 5.16 (46) lost to Fremantle 17.14 (116) at ES
Line: Freo -25.5. Pies +25.5
The bye looked to have come at just the right time for Fremantle, as the outstanding early season form began to show its first signs of dropping off in Rounds 10 & 11. After being beaten for the first time in 2015 the week before against Richmond, many expected the Dockers to bounce back with vigour and destroy the undermanned Suns. Strangely enough it wasn’t to be as Fremantle appeared to lack intensity in sloppy conditions. The Dockers produced their trademark stoppage dominance, but didn’t look as hungry. Admittedly, better kicking in front of goal probably would have seen the expected large margin, but I expect to see a recharged Fremantle against Collingwood.
It is difficult to know exactly what to make of Collingwood’s performance against GWS in Round 11. The Giants were matching it with the Pies for a majority of the match, but key injuries really did see the margin blow out. Positively for Collingwood, its midfield emergence continued as Adams, Swan, Pendlebury and Crisp produced big numbers yet again. After dropping off through the middle in 2014 and losing Beams, not many expected this area to be a strength for the Pies. A combination of player development, stronger structures and smart recruiting in the midfield is a key reason as to why Collingwood are now a top four contender.
Both sides are coming off the bye, which always brings further unpredictability. I’m certain the Dockers needed a rest, so don’t be surprised to see a fresher looking outfit than pre-bye.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 35 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Steele Sidebottom To Get 30 or More Disposals @ $4.20
SYDNEY ($1.27) VS RICHMOND ($3.85)
AT THE SCG, FRIDAY 26/06, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R23 2014 Sydney 9.11 (65) lost to Richmond 10.8 (68) at ANZ
Line: Swans -26.5, Tigers +26.5
Sydney went into the bye perfectly placed at 9-2, which has now seen it shorten to equal second flag favouritism. The Swans have been going about its business with minimal fuss, mainly due to the greater media attention of Fremantle and Hawthorn. Sydney have only beaten two top eight sides in Hawthorn and GWS, but a six round winning streak has seen confidence levels grow with every performance. It is yet again one of the hardest teams to score against, ranking only behind Fremantle from points conceded. The clearance differentials have shown signs of improvement, but John Longmire would be looking to see the gap closed even further before September arrives.
You get the feeling that Richmond missed a great opportunity to cement a position in the top eight against West Coast. The bye probably came at a poor time for the Tigers as their momentum was building nicely. Richmond have become a side that relies heavily on confidence and I’m sure Damien Hardwick would have preferred his bye to occur in Round 13 rather than 11. Unfortunately, the fixture isn’t something that you can control and all clubs must adjust accordingly. The ruck work of Nic Naitanui constantly put Richmond on the back foot against West Coast and Hardwick must find a way to limit the damage against dominant ruckmen.
The Swans are coming off a fourteen day break compared to Richmond’s seven. We all saw how Sydney benefitted from that situation last year and it appears the luck of the draw has fallen their way again.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 25 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Sydney 1-39 @ $2.10
HAWTHORN ($1.07) VS ESSENDON ($8.50)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 27/06, 13:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R2 2015 Essendon 12.6 (78) dftd Hawthorn 11.10 (76) at the MCG
Line: Hawks -48.5, Bombers +48.5
Hawthorn travelled to Adelaide and come home with a much more positive result than earlier in the year, running away to a comfortable 5 goal win against the Crows. Despite Adelaide challenging numerous times, Hawthorn simply upped the ante whenever it needed to. In the process, Hawthorn lived up to its reputation of being “unsociable” as several senior players physically enforced their authority. Many feel the Hawks are pushing the boundaries too far, but with the MRP points system abolished, players are certainly taking advantage of the greater flexibility. History shows that intimidating teams are generally successful ones and Hawthorn are no exception. Grant Birchall is back for the Hawks.
The second half of 2015 is likely to be full of scrutiny for Essendon, as its poor form continues to coincide with pending WADA suspensions for a large percentage of the playing group. There are now question marks on James Hird’s tenure as the media swings its attention toward replacing the last coaching merry-go-round victim Mick Malthouse. He is being accused of lacking commitment after missing a main training session while overseas. Hird desperately needs his side to turn its form around or risk being in a similar position Malthouse. Injuries to Colyer and Bellchambers don’t help, while Dustin Fletcher is still at least a week away for returning.
The Bombers had a remarkable victory in Round 2, but a lot has changed since then. Hawthorn are rising and will be looking to extract revenge on the old enemy.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 41 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Hawthorn @ the -11.5 Second Quarter Line
BRISBANE ($3.60) VS ADELAIDE ($1.30)
AT THE GABBA, SATURDAY 27/06, 16:35
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R20 2014 Brisbane Lions 9.9 (63) lost to Adelaide 25.18 (168) at the Gabba
Line: Lions +22.5, Crows -22.5
Another game, yet another disappointing outing for Brisbane. Once the Western Bulldogs got a significant lead late in the third quarter, the young heads dropped and so did the intensity. It was no surprise to see the Lions concede nine goals in the last quarter. The contested ball numbers are horrendous and there is no evidence of it improving. The Lions are the only side to have not registered over 1400 contested possessions for the season, averaging a worrying 126.6 per game. That number dropped to 106 against the Dogs, with only Beams and Zorko reaching double figures. The injury list is still lengthy and skipper Tom Rockliff is still recovering from those broken ribs. Times are dark at the Gabba.
Adelaide were competitive against Hawthorn, but every challenge was easily handled by the reigning premier. You could argue that the loss of Taylor Walker to a double corky cost Adelaide the game, but that is nothing more than speculative. Where the Crows were impressive were around the stoppages, winning both the clearance and contested possession counts. Unfortunately, it was also an area that was costly as attacking structures ultimately led to some dangerous Hawthorn inside 50s late. Despite the loss, there was plenty to learn for the Crows. Taylor Walker has been named after that nasty Sam Mitchell corky.
This will be the fifth consecutive time these clubs have played at the Gabba, with Adelaide winning three of the four. That includes a 105 drubbing late last year and considering the Lions current vulnerabilities, the -22.5 line looks generous. Adelaide have lost three of the last four, their form isn’t too bad considering the efforts against Fremantle and Hawthorn.
ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 49 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Adelaide @ the -22.5 line
ST KILDA ($2.65) VS WESTERN BULLDOGS ($1.50)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 27/06, 19:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R6 2015 Western Bulldogs 13.9 (87) lost to St Kilda 14.10 (94) at ES
Line: Saints +14.5, Dogs -14.5
The Saints went into the bye on an extreme high after a last gasp victory against Melbourne. After Melbourne appeared to have the game sewn up with 41 seconds remaining, Jack Steven took full advantage of the space provided and made his own luck. The bounce to Montagna running into an open goal was just that, but the situation should have been avoided. St Kilda initiated the attack and deserved the rewards of a fourth victory. It must continue to take the game on as part of the development of this young list.
The Western Bulldogs finally produced a victory against a bottom ten side, defeating the hapless Lions with ease. The Dogs now play a further four bottom sides consecutively and will hope its strange trend of poor performances against lower quality has ended. At 6-5, the Dogs have the easiest draw of all the sides competing for the last few positions of the eight. This is an opportunity I doubt even Luke Beveridge would have expected. The Dogs were dynamic against Brisbane, highlighted by yet another brilliant performance from Jake Stringer who slotted five goals. There currently appears to be a bottomless pit of young talent at Whitten Oval.
Amazingly, these sides only met last month when the Saints got home after the Dogs gave up a massive nine goal lead. If the Dogs want to be a top eight side, they beat St Kilda.
WESTERN BULLDOGS TO WIN BY 34 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Western Bulldogs @ the -14.5 Line
CARLTON ($1.45) VS GOLD COAST ($2.75)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 28/06, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R20 2014 Carlton 14.13 (97) dftd Gold Coast 8.10 (58) at ES
Line: Blues -14.5, Suns +14.5
Carlton aren’t exactly turning their season around under John Barker, but its first 2015 win in Australia is a good start. Beating Port Adelaide was easily the best moment for the season, but it isn’t just about the win for Carlton. There finally appears to be a process and purpose implemented, a reason to wear the navy blue with pride. There is currently no player wearing the navy blue better than Patrick Cripps, a young man full of talent and determination. He is the future of the club and already the now, leading Carlton for both contested possessions and clearances. You build sides around kids like Cripps.
The Suns didn’t get the points against Fremantle, but it was arguably the clubs best performance for the season. Look, Gold Coast were statistically annihilated by Fremantle, but the players never gave in and the scoreboard indicated that. Is it a sign that fortunes are about to turn for Gold Coast? Perhaps, as the injury outlook is looking far more positive. Gary Ablett and David Swallow are on the verge of returning, while Harley Bennell, Sam Day and Steven May all are back for the Carlton clash.
Carlton are on a massive high and should be able to carry that confidence into this game. Even if the Suns do regain key players, don’t expect them to hit peak form for a few weeks.
CARLTON TO WIN BY 20 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Halftime/Fulltime Double Carlton/Carlton @ $1.87
