Welcome to the Round 12 AFL preview. Without even playing a game during Round 11, Hawthorn have overtaken Fremantle to be the new Premiership favourite. The Hawks have shortened to $3.50, leaving Fremantle and Sydney on the second line of betting at $3.75. It didn’t take long to see a new favourite after it appeared the Dockers wouldn’t be passed for weeks. A convincing loss at home to Richmond and a poor performance against the Suns have created questions, but the bye has probably come at the perfect time for Ross Lyon and his men. There is a big gap between the top three teams and the rest, as indicated in the Premiership market. Hawthorn, Fremantle and Sydney are all priced under $4.00, with West Coast fourth favourite at a staggering $16.00. Can we see a side challenge these short priced teams in the second half of the season?
BEST BET
Geelong @ the -33.5 line
ADELAIDE ($3.05) VS HAWTHORN ($1.40)
AT ADEALIDE OVAL, THURSDAY 18/06, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R17 2014 Adelaide 14.8 (92) lost to Hawthorn 15.14 (104) at AO
Line: Crows +18.5, Hawthorn -18.5
Adelaide went into the bye flat after a promising start to the season. The loss of Sloane, Douglas and the extended absence of Brad Crouch hurt the Crows, but all three will be together again soon. It is always nice to get a win before the bye, but Adelaide were lucky to get away with the points against Carlton. Adelaide recorded 88 less disposals in Round 10, a number that would seriously concern Phil Walsh. A majority of those disposals were on the outside, which saw Carlton rewarded for working hard on the spread. Josh Jenkins was probably the difference with 5 goals, but his challenge now is to produce the quality on a more consistent basis. Richard Douglas is back for the Crows.
Hawthorn returns from its break as the new Premiership favourite, despite doing nothing at all. It still sits four wins behind Fremantle on top of the ladder, but does have a game in hand. The Hawks entered the bye with two convincing wins against St Kilda and Gold Coast, producing results that nearly everyone would have expected. Since losing to Sydney and being 4-4, we really haven’t learned all that much more about the Hawks. We all just expect them to come good, which is natural considering they have won the last two flags. We’ll know exactly where they sit in the next five weeks with key matches coming up. Paul Puopolo returns to the side.
Both clubs are coming off the bye and will feel fresh. Hawthorn should be too strong, but it will be interesting to see how competitive the Crows are after dropping a touch over the last month.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 26 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Over 185.5 Total Game Points
RICHMOND ($1.78) VS WEST COAST ($2.10)
AT THE MCG, FRIDAY 19/06, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R18 2014 West Coast 6.6 (42) lost to Richmond 8.11 (59) at PS
Line: Tigers -3.5, Eagles +3.5
Richmond are the club that has everyone talking after a four game winning streak leading into the bye that included the scalps of Fremantle and Port Adelaide away, on top of rivals Collingwood and Essendon. The Tigers have now shortened to $18.00 to win the flag and are currently fifth favourite. The Richmond love is growing by the day and it is not hard to see why considering it has won 15 of its last 19 home and away matches. The dismantling of the undefeated Dockers in Round 10 is what has everyone excited as the Tigers kicked 12 goals in the opening half, a figure most teams have struggled to kick against Ross Lyon’s tactics for entire games. Damien Hardwick has implemented some important changes, making his side more dangerous offensively and harder to score against.
After such a disappointing trip to Hobart, West Coast came out and put on a solid performance against an improved Essendon line-up. While the Eagles didn’t play its best football and won far less of the ball on the outside than Essendon, its stoppage and contested work was too strong. Kennedy and LeCras kicked 7 goals between them, while Jack Darling returned to the strong forward set up with two goals in a promising outing. West Coast haven’t played at the MCG for over 12 months, so it isn’t exactly a venue of familiarity.
Both teams are in good form, but you feel Richmond are really beginning to warm to Hardwick’s game plan. They probably deserve to hold shorter favouritism at home.
RICHMOND TO WIN BY 21 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Richmond @ the -3.5 line
CARLTON ($3.40) VS PORT ADELAIDE ($1.32)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 20/06, 13:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R22 2014 Port Adelaide 20.20 (140) dftd Carlton 5.7 (37) at AO
Line: Blues +21.5, Port -21.5
The Carlton performance against Adelaide in Round 10 proved that the sacking of Mick Malthouse was well and truly justified. The game plan has been changed and young players are getting greater opportunities in positions of significance. The return of Matthew Kreuzer was another positive as the injury ravaged tall competed well and kicked two goals. Unfortunately the day was soured by the serious knee injury of Chris Judd, who has been forced into retirement. Despite his aging legs, he’ll be a huge loss for the Blues, not just for his on field ability but also as a nurturer to the up and coming midfielders. He’ll be remembered as a legend of the game. Gibbs and Yarran are big inclusions for Carlton.
Things went from bad to worse from Port Adelaide on Friday night, going down to Geelong at home in a must win game. It leaves the Power 5-6 in 10th position on the ladder with a medium-difficult draw coming home. Port have blown out to $26.00 to win the flag and are now $1.55 to miss the eight. This is a side that many believed could challenge the likes of Hawthorn, Fremantle and Sydney only weeks ago. The Geelong game was further evidence that sides have worked Port Adelaide out structurally. The Power produced its third worst kicking efficiency in its history (51.8%) and recorded the third most kicks out on the full (11) of any side since the statistic has been counted. The Power are being cornered and restricted of its dangerous corridor ball movement. Jackson Trengove is back for the Power.
If Port Adelaide lose this game, the club is officially entering crisis mode. I’m sure there will be nervous moments for Ken Hinkley, but Port should get home.
PORT ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 29 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Chad Wingard Most Goals @ $6.50
GWS ($2.70) VS NORTH MELBOURNE ($1.46)
AT SPOTLESS STADIUM, SATURDAY 20/06, 16:35
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R20 2014 GWS Giants 7.9 (51) lost to North Melbourne 19.12 (126) at STO
Line: GWS +13.5, North -13.5
GWS were within two goals of Collingwood late in the third quarter, but a quartet of injuries completely ruined the sides chances of victory and perhaps even finals later on in the season. Most teams are going to struggle when you lose your two best tall defenders, number one ruckman and a midfielder during the one game. When that side is one of the youngest in the competition, its hurts even more so. Davis and Patful have been great in defence but won’t be seen for 6-8 weeks due to ankle and rib injuries respectively. The biggest loss though is Shane Mumford who requires an ankle reconstruction and will miss the rest of the season. The big, bustling ruckman has been in All-Australian form and offers his midfielders enormous protection with his second efforts. Stephen Coniglio has also been playing decent footy and thankfully only misses 2-3 weeks with a shoulder. Youthful sides can’t afford mass losses of senior experience like this.
Once again, North Melbourne couldn’t put together a four quarter performance, going down to Sydney by 16 points. Darren Crocker would have been pleased that his side responded after a poor first half and a deficit of 36 points late in the second quarter, but North then gave up some golden chances once they were back in the game. New recruits Jarrad Waite and Shaun Higgins both had shots on goal late in the game to bring the margin to within a goal, but both missed gettable opportunities. North Melbourne just have too many flat periods and don’t take enough of their chances to be a premiership contender. I guess they find themselves in 12th position for a reason. Nick Dal Santo adds some much needed class to the midfield.
North Melbourne are capable of murdering a side in the situation of the Giants, but it also wouldn’t surprise to see it capitulate and lose. The Roos should win comfortably.
NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 25 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
North Melbourne Halftime/Fulltime Double @ $1.88
WESTERN BULLDOGS ($1.31) VS BRISBANE ($3.55)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 20/06, 19:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R12 2014 Western Bulldogs 13.9 (87) lost to Brisbane Lions 14.11 (95) at ES
Line: Dogs -23.5, Lions +23.5
The Western Bulldogs would have been disappointed to enter the bye with a loss, but the 2015 season to date as a whole has been full of promise. The Dogs statistically beat Port Adelaide at the stoppages and for contested possession, but butchered the ball. It didn’t help that the Dogs recorded more contested possessions than uncontested possessions, which will always hurt efficiency percentages. Luke Beveridge’s men are ranked 16th for uncontested possessions per game and while they look dangerous when they do hit the outside, they need to do it more often. Bontempelli and Picken return for the Dogs.
The Brisbane Lions will be looking to turn its poor 2015 start around, after registering just two wins in the opening ten games. Justin Leppitsch’s men have been hit by an injury apocalypse, which has hurt both the AFL and NEAFL sides. Two weeks ago the Lions NEAFL team was left with just three listed players in the side, leading to a 216 to 24 loss against the Giants. Thankfully the return of Redden, McStay and Adcock will help this week.
You would think the Dogs would win this game convincingly at Etihad Stadium, but they have been so poor against bottom ten sides. I expect that trend will end this week.
WESTERN BULLDOGS TO WIN BY 41 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Liam Picken To Get 25 or More Disposals @ $2.05
GEELONG ($1.15) VS MELBOURNE ($5.50)
AT SIMONDS STADIUM, SUNDAY 21/06, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R17 2014 Melbourne 5.6 (36) lost to Geelong 14.18 (102) at the MCG
Line: Cats -33.5, Dees +33.5
Just when you think the Cats are ready to fall down the ladder, they give you a nice little reminder that they are still a team of substance. The premiership days may be gone, but Geelong will be fighting for a top eight spot. The Cats appeared in control of Port Adelaide most of the night, before pulling away to a 23 point win. Corey Enright was superb in his 299th game, gathering a career high 14 intercept possessions on his way to a best on ground performance. Rhys Stanley was absolutely brilliant in the first half with 14 disposals, 2 goals and 6 clearances, but has succumbed to a foot injury that will see him miss multiple weeks. The ruck stocks will yet again be stretched for the Cats.
Melbourne suffered a heartbreaking loss against St Kilda, lengthening its Etihad Stadium losing streak to 21 matches. A Jeremy Howe goal gave Melbourne a four point lead with just 42 seconds remaining, but somehow the message to put men back wasn’t transferred to the ground. It left Jack Steven space to run into, which led to Leigh Montagna picking up a loose bouncing ball at the top of the goal square. The final goal was more luck than skill, but some structural nous would have seen the match winner avoided. Jesse Hogan was a monster yet again, kicking five goals and shortening further in Rising Star betting.
The Cats have a brilliant record against Melbourne, having beaten them the last ten occasions. Geelong have an average winning margin of 83.4 points against Melbourne over the last five encounters, including the 186 point drubbing. Even if you take away that massive result, the average margin is still 57.75 points. That -33.5 line looks fantastic value and the Cats will be on their game for Enright’s 300th game.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 65 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Geelong @ the -33.5 line
