Round 11 AFL Preview & Bets
Welcome to the Round 11 AFL preview. We are close to reaching the midway part of the home and away season, as the six game bye rounds give clubs some much needed down time. The ladder will be lopsided for three weeks, but it has rarely caused confusion in the past. The only hindrance created is having to adjust your fantasy side accordingly, especially if you haven’t structurally planned your side beforehand.
Round 10 went mostly to plan, excluding Friday night which saw Fremantle lose its first game of the season. The Dockers are still outright premiership favourites, but Sydney and Hawthorn have now closed to within 40 cents due to the result. Sydney now sees itself outright second on the ladder, now a game clear of Collingwood, West Coast and GWS. Historically the ladder barely changes from this point of the season, but you get the feeling 2015 will be the exception with only two wins separating third from twelfth.
BEST BET
Fremantle @ the -20.5 Halftime Line
PORT ADELAIDE ($1.50) VS GEELONG ($2.65)
AT ADELAIDE OVAL, FRIDAY 12/06, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R6 2014 Port Adelaide 16.11 (107) dftd Geelong 9.13 (67) at AO
Line: Port -14.5, Cats +14.5
Port Adelaide are just beginning to show some consistency over the last two weeks. The Power produced some of its most promising football of the year on Saturday night, proving that they are going to created issues in the second half of the season. Despite losing the contested possession, clearance and inside 50 counts, Port Adelaide were brilliantly efficient throughout the game. The Power had 60 more uncontested possessions, which led to them having far more effective disposals to the Dogs. Wingard looks back to top form, registering 23 disposals and 3 goals on the weekend. Ryder and Trengove are still absent.
The scoreboard suggests that Geelong completely annihilated Essendon on Saturday night, but the game wasn’t as simple as that. The Bombers more or less broke even with Geelong in the first quarter, but some terrible kicking at goal saw the Essendon heads drop. The Cats took full advantage by taking their opportunities at first and then punishing Essendon once they sensed a kill. The Cats deserve credit for their big win, especially considering they kept the Bombers goalless for a half at Etihad Stadium. The opposition certainly wasn’t anywhere near its best though. Stanley is a big in for the Cats as the only fit recognised ruckman on the list, but Mitch Clark hasn’t made the trip.
You get the feeling that things are just beginning to click for Port Adelaide. They now need another decent scalp and a win against Geelong would provide respect. Geelong have an atrocious recent interstate record and will need to start well again.
PORT ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 8 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Josh Walker First Goalscorer @ $21.00
GOLD COAST ($9.00) VS FREMANTLE ($1.06)
AT METRICON STADIUM, SATURDAY 13/06, 13:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R2 2014 Fremantle 12.15 (87) dftd Gold Coast 5.9 (39) at PS
Line: Suns +44.5, Freo -44.5
The Suns would have been pleased to not be blown away by Sydney, but it was a big enough loss to see it drop below Carlton to be last on the ladder. There weren’t too many positives to take out of the game yet again, as Steven May is yet another to fall to the dreaded Suns injury curse. Thankfully Rodney Eade will get the chance to bring in some players this week, highlighted by Charlie Dixon and Nick Malceski who both played NEAFL on the weekend. Unfortunately, they come up against ladder leader Fremantle on the rebound, who’ll be looking to make a statement after its upset loss to Richmond.
Fremantle lost its first game of the 2015 season on Friday night, going down to a Richmond side that has made giant strides. The Dockers had only conceded 70 points or more in a game twice prior to Friday night this season, so to see the Tigers score 74 points in the first half would have been horrifying for Ross Lyon. His sides don’t concede goals at will and it was no surprise to see that a likely halftime spray ensured Richmond only kick three goals in the second half. The Richmond start was too much to bring in though, but you suspect Fremantle took plenty out of the game. Michael Johnson is a massive loss and won’t be seen for 8-10 weeks with that hamstring.
Expect Fremantle to come out and make a statement in the first half, like it has for most of the year. The -20.5 Fremantle halftime line looks outstanding value.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 61 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Fremantle @ the -20.5 Halftime Line
WEST COAST ($1.19) VS ESSENDON ($4.70)
AT DOMAIN STADIUM, SATURDAY 13/06, 16:35
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R21 2014 Essendon 11.11 (77) dftd West Coast 11.8 (74) at ES
Line: Eagles -32.5, Bombers +32.5
The West Coast 10 point loss to North Melbourne in Hobart would have been a frustrating result for the coaches and certainly was for anyone backing them. The Eagles held a vital 12 point lead at the 25 minute mark of the third quarter, knowing they were coming home with a cyclonic wind at their back in the last. Three quick goals to end the quarter by North saw that lead become a six point deficit and change the momentum. Still, West Coast held a significant advantage considering only four goals had been kicked against the wind for the entire match. To Adam Simpson’s disgust, North Melbourne doubled that figure with four goals themselves to snatch an unlikely win. Let’s hope it isn’t a result West Coast regret come Round 23. Jack Darling makes his first appearance for 2015.
It is difficult to assess exactly what is going on at Essendon at this point in time. No league club should be kept goalless in the pristine environment of Etihad Stadium for a half. The Bombers could only register six behinds up to the major break against Geelong, its first goalless half since 1984 and lowest halftime score since 1968. Easy misses completely shot the confidence of the forwards and it eventually spread like a plague through the entire team. Questions are being asked of James Hird and he is having trouble answering them. The next month of football could be telling for his coaching future. Skipper Jobe Watson returns for the trip west.
West Coast have a 76 point average winning margin at Domain Stadium this season. I’m not saying it will get that ugly, but the line should be easily covered.
WEST COAST TO WIN BY 54 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
West Coast @ the -32.5 Line
NORTH MELBOURNE ($2.70) VS SYDNEY ($1.46)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 13/06, 19:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: PF 2014 Sydney 19.22 (136) dftd North Melbourne 9.11 (65) at ANZ
Line: North +14.5, Sydney -14.5
Many had been questioning whether North Melbourne lost its famed Shinboner spirit over the last few years, but Sunday’s win was the closest I’ve seen the Kangaroos produce anything near gutsy for many weeks. After being 12 points down late in time on of the third quarter and kicking against a howling wind in the last, North Melbourne stepped up to the plate. It was led by Jack Ziebell who not only kicked a crucial final quarter goal, but gathered 17 contested possessions and 11 clearances. North matched it and arguably beat an inform West Coast midfield when it mattered, but we need to see this effort on a far more consistent basis.
The Swans have had two consecutive low key wins over poor opposition, but appear to be playing good football. Sydney finally managed to overcome its recent contested possession and clearance losses against the Suns, but so it should against a side missing its four best midfielders. Tom Mitchell has certainly made a difference since returning to the side, with 15 of his 33 disposals contested, including 8 clearances. His form really makes you wonder why he was on the outer for so long in the NEAFL. Sydney now finds itself a game clear in second position, setting itself up perfectly for a home Qualifying Final.
North Melbourne beat Sydney early in 2014, but were annihilated in the Preliminary Final. I feel Sydney are just too good at the moment.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 22 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Sydney 1-39 @ $2.20
COLLINGWOOD ($1.64) VS GWS ($2.25)
AT THE MCG, SUNDAY 14/06, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R22 2014 GWS Giants 9.13 (67) lost to Collingwood 11.9 (75) at SPS
Line: Pies -7.5, GWS +7.5
Collingwood looked like running away to a big win against Melbourne during the annual Queen’s Birthday match, while Travis Cloke appeared in record breaking form with four first quarter goals. That momentum disappeared quickly as Melbourne then went on to kick six unanswered goals and steal the lead back. The rollercoaster game continued as Collingwood then went on its own five goal streak, only to be pegged back again by Melbourne. The Pies kicked the last four goals of the game to win, but will be looking to be more consistent throughout matches in coming weeks. Cloke ended with a personal best 7 goals, while Adam Oxley was enormous with 14 marks of which 8 were intercepted.
GWS did what it needed to against Brisbane, without shifting out of third gear. In a game that probably doesn’t need to be viewed ever again, GWS simply won the ball first and went on to a trouble free five goal victory. One player who did give his all though was Callan Ward, collecting 32 disposals, 17 contested possessions, 10 clearances, all at a brilliant efficiency rate of 81%. Its NEAFL side had a 192 point win against the Lions as well, proving there are plenty pushing for spots.
Despite a 7-3 record, Collingwood are yet to defeat a top eight side. GWS haven’t won a game against the Pies yet, but have improved on each performance. I think it is their turn and they look great value head to head.
GWS TO WIN BY 10 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
GWS Head to Head @ $2.25
ST KILDA ($1.80) VS MELBOURNE ($2.00)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 14/06, 16:35
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R1 2014 St Kilda 10.8 (68) dftd Melbourne 6.15 (51) at ES
Line: Saints -2.5, Dees +2.5
St Kilda weren’t really ever in the game against Hawthorn, but it wasn’t disgraced despite a 63 point final margin. The final three goals of the game made the result a whole lot more respectable than it could have been, but at least the Saints fought on. Considering the margin got out to 145 points the last time St Kilda took on Hawthorn, Alan Richardson can’t fault the effort too much. The Saints have a group of what it would consider winnable matches coming up, so the confidence levels need to stay high.
Melbourne looked brilliant at times against Collingwood, especially when they put multiple goals together. The team produced run, excitement and most importantly never gave up despite times when Collingwood looked like running away with the game. Two key match ups hurt Melbourne, as Travis Cloke kicked 7 goals and Adam Oxley intercepted anything at will. Melbourne returns to its most loathed surrounds in the competition on Sunday in Etihad Stadium, a venue it has not won at since Round 19, 2007.
On first thoughts, St Kilda installed as favourites for this game was quite surprising. But once you look into the situation further and see that Melbourne has lost its last 20 matches at Etihad Stadium, it all makes sense. Can Melbourne overcome the mental barrier of Etihad? On paper you would tip them, but the venue makes things so much more unpredictable.
ST KILDA TO WIN BY 6 POINTS
No Suggested Bet
