Please note
All Injury updates can be found here.
First Teams sheets can be found here.
Carlton Blues ($2.70) vs Geelong Cats ($1.47) – Friday 7:40pm
Geelong have won 6 of the last 8 meetings. Carlton beat the Cats in Round 5 of last year by 36 and Geelong beat Carlton in round 21 by 42.
Carlton have only had one loss for the year against Collingwood while Geelong are obviously the only undefeated team in the league after their tight win against the Pies.
The Cats statistically have the best defense in the league letting in under 70 points on average per game this year. Carlton are also in the top 4 this year defensively.
Interestingly, Carlton are the 2nd best in the league for preventing teams taking marks averaging only 76 marks against them while Geelong are sitting in 5th with 81 marks per game against them.
A key area in the game is hitouts. Geelong are sitting in 3rd behind Freo (sandi) and WCE (Cox) with only 32 hitouts against them per match compared to Carlton averaging 37 hitouts against them.
A concerning statistic for Geelong is the tackle count per game. The Cats are sitting 3nd last in the league for tackles averaging only 62 per game while Carlton are sitting in 2nd on 75. Strangly, St Kilda sit on 69 tackles (3rd) and Brisbane on 68 (5th). So you may feel that Geelong don’t need to make those tackles to win.
Both Geelong and Carlton should be concerned with their kicking infront of goal. They have two of the worst records in the league averaging > 1.5 more points per game than goals.
Geelong has not lost a 3rd or 4th QTR all year which is an amazing statistic. Compared to Carlton who lost their 3rd and 4th Qtrs in 2 of their last three games (against Adelaide and St Kilda) and nearly lost both those games.
While a match is not won by a single player, it is hard to avoid key statistics of individiuals. Carlton have 3 players in the top 25 goal kickers this year, and they are all ‘small players’ in Garlett, Walker and Betts while Geelong have 0 players in the top 25.. showing Carltons reliance on their small blokes infront of goal.
Interestingly two of the top offenders infront of goal of the top 5 in the league are the JPod and Stevie J who are both scored 9 goals 14 and 4 goals 13 for the year.
Mark Murphy, Chris Judd, James Kelly and Joel Corey are all in the Top 25 for Disposals. Not surprisingly to most, especially Pies supporters, Joel Selwood is 10th on the list of Frees for. Placed in 3rd i Marc Murphy!
Harry Taylor is the only player ranked in the top 25 for One Percenters from either team!
Team Changes
Carlton In: Brock McLean, Jeremy Laidler.
Out: Aaron Joseph, Edward Curnow
Geelong In: Darren Milburn, Taylor Hunt, Nathan Vardy.
Out: Cameron Ling, Tom Lonergan, Daniel Menzel
Who will win this match?
Carlton have been great in the first two QTR’s of their matchs recently but have given up good leads to let teams back into it such as Adelaide and St Kilda who they only JUST beat. Geelong have been finishing games strong and should be too much for Carlton, beating them by 22 points.
Betting Option
Cats +12.5 at $1.25
St Kilda Saints ($1.52) vs Melbourne Demons ($2.55) – Saturday 2:10pm
Saints go into this game having won the last FIVE games between these two teams by no less than 31 points. Demons have lost their last 9 games at Ethiad!
Melbourne go into this game with 9 people on their injury list while St Kilda only have two ‘really’ injured players in Baker and Hayes.
Melbourne have lost alot of their strucutre through injury.
Not surprisingly, neither of the players in these two teams are in the Top 25 list for One Percenters this year.
A key stat for this game is Contested Possessions. As you can tell by the way St Kilda have been playing, none of their players are in the top 25 while brent Moloney for Melbourne is sitting in 8th.
Something St Kilda need to bring to this game is Tackles. Both teams have NO player in the top 25 for tackles.
Saints are poor in the ruck but Melbourne with no Jamar will make it alot easier for Saints to win the bounces and get the ball out in their possession.
Saints have lost by an average of 21 this year while Melbourne have lost by an average of 47.
Team Changes
St Kilda In: Jason Blake, Leigh Montagna, Brett Peake, Nicholas Winmar
Out: Steven Baker, Jason Gram, Ben McEvoy, Andrew McQualter
Melbourne In: Matthew Bate, Jared Rivers, Jordie McKenzie, Joel Macdonalds, Michael Evans
Out: Lynden Dunn, Colin Garland, Austin Wonaeamirri, Jamie Bennel, Rohan Bail
Who will win this match?
The injuries are too much for the Demons on a ground they hate. Saints by 38
Betting Option
Saints +16.5 at $1.21
Port Adelaide Power ($2.60) vs Fremantle Dockers ($1.50) – Saturday 2:10pm
Port have won 3 of the last 5 meetings in Adelaide while Freo have won 3 of the last 4 games these teams have played, the last two by 42 and 57.
Port Adelaide have the LEAST number of hitouts a match in the league with 27 per game while Freo are 3rd highest with 44 (while they are first with hitouts against).
Fremantle will dominate the ruck. Tacklewise, Freo are 7th averaging 68 a game while Port Adelaide are 2nd last with 61 a game.
Interestingly, two Port Players in the backline (Carlile and Chaplin) are in the top 25 for One Percenters while Freo has none.
Port are missing two of their best players in Cassisi who is their best Contested Possession player and Rodan is also out who is their most explosive.
David Mundy, Fyfe and Sandlilands are in the top 25 for contested possessions while the only Port player in the top 25 is Dean Brogan.
Watch out for Chris Mayne in the forward 50, leading Marks inside 50 with 21 marks this year.
Port average losing margin is 47 while Freo average losing margin is 31 and winning margin by 15.
Fremantle have ‘15’ injuries on their list but their team is still strong.
Team Changes
Port Adelaide In: Jasper Pittard
Out: Daniel Stewart
Fremantle In: Rhys Palmer, Hayden Ballantyne, Dylan Roberton, Tendai Mzungu
Out: Jay Van Berlo, Adam McPhee, Hayden Pitt, Jack Anthony
Who will win this match?
Fremantle too good here and will win by 32
Betting Option
Fremantle +16.5 at $1.26
Brisbane Lions ($2.04) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos ($1.78) – Saturday 7:40pm
Brisbane lost their last 9 at the Gabba!
The last four games between these teams has been 2 wins 2 loses each. North won the last game by 1 point!
Brisbanes average losing margin has been 25 points while Norths has been 39 points. Interestingly, Norths average winning margin is 50!
Nathan Grima is a big loss for North as he is sitting in top 10 of players for One Percenters.
Interestingly, Brisbane have been dominating the Ruck this year sitting in 2nd at 44 hitouts a game compared to North Melbourne sitting in 9th on 35. Brisbane are also averaging 4 more tackles a match.
The main problem for Brisbane this year is marking. They are only averaging 79 this year sitting in 14th while North average 84 sitting in 10th.
Big in for Brisbane is their Captain Brown into the forward line while Ashley McGrath is a big out with Josh Drummond.
Kangaroos should control the Brisbane Defense and outscore Brisbane in a shootout.
Team Changes
Brisbane In: Jonathan Brown, Matt AUstin, Joshua Green
Out: Josh Drummond, Ashely McGrath, Ryan Harwood
North Melbourne In: Luke Delaney, Ben Cunnington
Out: Nathan Grima, Samuel Wright
Who will win this match?
North Melbourne by 18
Betting Option
North Melbourne +28.5 at $1.25
Richmond Tigers ($2.95) vs Essendon Bombers ($1.40) – Saturday 7:40pm
Richmond has won 4 of the last 6 games. The last game was won by Essendon by 35.
Essendon are Top 4 in tackles this year while Richmond are bottom 6.
Essendon have been consistant in the ruck sitting in the top 8 on 37 per game while Richmond sit in 13th on 34 per game.
The stats are fairly similar for Marks per game with Essendon in 8th and Richmond in 12th.
The Bombers have been averaging wins by 60 points and loses by 17.5 while Richmonds average win is 28 and loss is 47.
Number ONE for disposals in the league at the moment is Jobe Watson, even after missing a Qtr of footy last week. He will be a BIG loss for the Dons. He is also 2nd in the league for Contested Possessions. Only other person from this game in top 25 is Stewart Crameri.
Essendon have no others in the top 25 while Richmond have Dustin Martin and Shaun Grigg. Interestingly, Dylan Grimes is 2nd in the league for One Percenters for Richmond while Cale Hooker and Kyle Hardingham are sitting outside the top 10.
Team Changes
Richmond In: Shane Tuck, Andrew Browne, Mitchell Farmer
Out: Angus Graham, Shane Edwards, Ben Nason
Essendon: Henry Slattery, Brent Stanton, Alwyn Davey
Out: Heath Hocking, Jobe Watson, Travis Colyer
Who will win this match?
This is what they call the ‘true test’ for the Bombers. Will they be able to step up without Hocking and Watson who have been two of their best recently?
This game will be closer than expected. Unfortunately for the Tigers, they have a few key outs at the wrong time.
Essendon by 12 points
Betting Option
Richmond +43.5 at $1.26
Collingwood Magpies ($1.06) vs Adelaide Crows ($9.00) – Sunday 1:10pm
Collingwood have won 3 of the last 4 games against Adelaide.
Adelaide has the LOWEST tackle count in the league with 59 per game while the Pies sit in 9th with 66 per game.
All the stats in the world in this game couldn’t save the Adelaide with all the injuries in their squad
Team Changes
Collingwood In: Nick Maxwell, John McCarthy, Dayne Beams, Lachlan Keeffe
Out: Alan Toovey
Adelaide In: Myke Cook, Taylor Walker, Aidan Riley
Out: None Named
Who will win this match?
Collingwood by 42
Betting Option
Collingwood -20.5 at $1.20
Sydney Swans ($1.80) vs Hawthorn Hawks ($2.02) – Sunday 2:10pm
Hawks have won 3 of the last 5 games against Sydney. Hawks have not won in Sydney since 2003.
Sydney have the lowest Mark record this year averaging 63 per game while Hawthorn are averaging 106.
To counteract that, Sydney have the highest tackle count per team on 86 per match while Hawks sit on 67.
Hawks are going to struggle in the Hitouts against Mumford with Sydney averaging 41 hitouts per match while Hawks average only 34.
Hawks have two in the top 25 one percentage players with Gibson and Hodge while Sydney has one in Richards.
Sydney has two of the top contested possession players in Kennedy and Bolton which goes with their game style while Hawks have none in the top 25.
Sydney average winning and losing margin is both 21. Hawks average losing margin is 19 and winning is 35.
Team Changes
Sydney In: Nick Malceski, Brett Meredith, Lewis Johnston, Mark Seaby
Out: Nathan Gordon
Hawthorn In: Max Bailey, Rick Ladson, Clinton Young, Cyril Rioli, Ryan Schoenmakers, Jordan Lisle
Out: Stephen Gilham, David Hale, Isaac Smith
Who will win this match?
Hawthorn with the talent coming back into their team will get up over Sydney and surprise them. Sydney have had some soft games lately.
Hawthorn by 18
Betting Option
Hawthorn at +33.5 at $1.24
West Coast Eagles ($1.77) vs Western Bulldogs ($2.06) – Sunday 2:40pm
West Coast have won 5 of the last 7 games against the Doggies. Interestingly, the two wins the Doggies had were both by 60 points.
West Coast have been DOMINATING the Hitouts with 51 average per game. 6 above any other team this year. Doggies are averaging only 35.
Both teams are fairly close in the tackle count with West Coast averaging 68 while Doggies 66.
West Coast have won 4 and lost 3 this year with an average lose margin of only 12 points while they win by 27 on average.
Doggies on the other hand have lost 4 and won 3 with an average losing margin of 40 and winning margin of 32.
Doggies were good last week against Richmond but should be no match for the press enforced infront of the home side in Perth by the West Coast Eagles
Team Changes
West Coast In: Andrew Embley, Daniel Kerr, Andrew Strijk
Out: None Named
Western Bulldogs: Shaun Higgins, Tom Williams, Easton Wood, Barry Hall, Mitchell Wallis
Out: Adam Cooney, Josh Hill
Who will win this match?
West Coast by 23
Betting Option
West Coast +25.5 at $1.25
Betting Options in Order of Preference
Hawthorn at +33.5 at $1.24
Fremantle +16.5 at $1.26
Cats +12.5 at $1.25
Collingwood -20.5 at $1.20
West Coast +25.5 at $1.25
North Melbourne +28.5 at $1.25
Richmond +43.5 at $1.26
Saints +16.5 at $1.21
Please note
All Betting Options are based on Centrebet’s Pick Your Own Line and supplied starting odds are based on head to head market on Centrebet. Better odds can be achieved by shopping around. Sportsbet pay significantly LESS for the Pick Your Own Line margins. Sportsbet only give better FULL line prices and better deals on first goal kicker etc.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author will not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
