Welcome to The Profits round 8 analysis with Drew and Euan.
You can find Full teams from the AFL website here – www.afl.com.au
You can find an up to date Injury List here – http://www.injuryupdate.com.au/afl-injury-list.php
Collingwood Magpies ($1.70) vs Geelong Cats ($2.15) – Friday 7:50pm EST – 18/05/2012
Recent clashes: Cats have won 7 of the last 9. Cats have won their last 10 games at the MCG including last 3 vs Pies
AFL Tipping: 66% Pies 34% Cats
Game preview: What a game to start the round. Let’s start with the outs. Nathan Brown with a knee injury is a massive out for the Pies while Wood, Seedsman and Yagmoor were dropped. In comes Dale Thomas, Chris Dawes, Alex Fasolo and Darren Jolly (questionable?). The cats lose Christensen and Gillies to injuries and drop Byrnes and Smedts. In comes Bartel, Scarlett, Stokes and Stephenson. When evaluating this game, ignore the Cats game last week. If anything, that performance will make them give more than they would have already in this game. With Brown out of the game, the Pies backline will struggle to handle the ball coming into Pods and Hawkins. The Pies haven’t been in much better form than that cats recently, being tested by the Bulldogs. This game should go right to the wire and it will be won and lost at the contested ball. The cats will need to be harder in and under to pick this one up and the loss of Christensen is a big hit to this. Cats have the better coach and they should scrape out a win.
Geelong by 5 points
Line: Geelong +5.5
Port Adelaide Power ($2.75) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos ($1.45) – Saturday 1:15pm CST – 19/05/2012
Recent clashes: North have won 6 of the last 10 but it is 3 a piece at AAMI Stadium
AFL Tipping: 18% Power 82% Roos
Game preview: We copped huge criticism for tipping again the Roos last week putting the Dogs on top (even for giving them a chance). This was based off stats produced by the Roos in their previous game against the Eagles and it played out correctly. We are expecting more criticism for this game analysis but let’s see how it goes. There have been some big team changes this week. The Power dropped Rodan, Steward, Logan and Phillips with Young out injured while Schultz (MASSIVE IN), Wingard, Thomas, Pearce and Pfeiffer are all called up. The Roos lose McIntosh and Wright to injuries and drop Anthony while Warren, Greenwood and Grima all come back in. The biggest problem the Power have had in the previous weeks is Marks Inside 50 and having targets. They took a poor 3 marks inside 50 last week. The Roos will be wanting to bring their A game on the weekend but the Power will certainly fight for this win. They have had some honorable losses this year and even a win over St Kilda.
Port Adelaide by 6 points
Line: Port Adelaide +15.5
Hawthorn Hawks ($1.18) vs Fremantle Dockers ($4.80) – Saturday 2:10pm EST – 19/05/2012
Recent clashes: Hawks have won 5 of the last 6 including a 51 point win last meeting
AFL Tipping: 93% Hawks 7% Dockers
Game preview: Osborne out injured with Gibson back in for Hawks and Van Berlo in for Freo with McPhee out injured. Freo haven’t been very impressive recently but the Hawks also haven’t shown as much as you would expect. Freo have a horrible record against the Hawks and even worse on the road. Hawks will win this one, just a matter of by how much. Being in Tasmania, you can always expect a smaller winning margin than at Etihad or MCG.
Hawthorn by 24 points
Line: Fremantle +29.5
Sydney Swans ($1.09) vs Melbourne Demons ($7.50) – Saturday 4:40pm EST – 19/05/2012
Recent clashes: Swans have won 4 of the last 6 with a draw the result last time out. Swans have a 1-0 record at SCG
AFL Tipping: 98% Swans 2% Demons
Game preview: Swans have dropped White (Thank God.. why not drop him from your list?), Seaby and Everitt with Roberts-Thomson, Pyke and Walsh coming in while the Demons have dropped Bate, Petterd, Bail and Fitzpatrick and bring back Green, Watts, Blease and Jurrah. This game being at the SCG certainly doesn’t suit the play-style of the Swans. They are much better at ANZ Stadium. That being said, the Swans should win this game easy. Have a feeling the Demons will come out and reach 25 points first but the Swans will take a firm grip of the game after half-time and shoot away.
Sydney by 36 points
Line: Sydney -41.5
Western Bulldogs ($1.17) vs Gold Coast Suns ($5.00) – Saturday 7:10pm EST – 19/05/2012
Recent clashes: Dogs won both games vs Giants last year. The 2nd game was a close 22 point win.
AFL Tipping: 95% Bulldogs 5% Suns
Game preview: The dogs were impressive last week while the Suns were good for 2 QTRs before losing to the Giants. That was the type of game that actually disappoints a team. The dogs lose Veszpremi and Roughead to injury but bring back Jones and Djerrkura. Big changes to Suns losing Swallow and Dixon to injury and Brennan, McKenzie, Toy and Coad dropped while bringing in some decent players. The dogs will be too strong. The Suns will stay in the game but the Dogs will beat them down.
Western Bulldogs by 35 points
Line: Western Bulldogs -33.5
Essendon Bombers ($1.52) vs Richmond Tigers ($2.50) – Saturday 7:50pm EST – 19/05/2012
Recent clashes: Tigers have had the wood on the Dons over the last 5 years with 5 from last 9 but Dons smashed them by 49 last game.
AFL Tipping: 87% Bombers 13% Tigers
Game preview: Both these teams come in very hit. Hurley is a HUGE in for the Dons with Colyer being dropped while the Tigers remain unchanged from their win over the Swans. Both teams are in fine form so it comes down to how they match up. The Tigers were given a very easy run up forward last week and they won’t get the same against this Essendon team who press well defensively and are strong in the air. Essendon should get the most of the midfield and have the more dominant Rucks. The hardball should be won more by the Tigers but the scoreboard will be the telling area with Richmond struggling to score over 100 against quality teams. Essendon have scored over 100 points in every game excluding the ANZAC day game so this should be a high scoring game. Richmond have only scored over 100 points once this year, against Melbourne.
Essendon by 22 points
Line: Essendon -12.5
Brisbane Lions ($1.20) vs Greater Western Sydney Giants ($4.50) – Sunday 1:10pm EST – 20/05/2012
Recent clashes: First clash
AFL Tipping: 88% Lions 12% Giants
Game preview: Adcock, Lester, Green and Bewick are all quality in’s for the Lions with Banfield out injured. Giants are making some massive changes with Bugg, Shiel, Sumner, Smith, Kennedy all rested with Reid, Tomlinson, Schulz, Wilson, Darley and Hoskin-Elliot all in the mix. The Giants played well last week and they are coming up against a Brisbane team who are not in the best of form. Are the Giants up to knocking off a team that isn’t the Suns? Not just yet.
Brisbane by 32 points
Line: Brisbane -34.5
Carlton Blues ($1.45) vs Adelaide Crows ($2.75) – Sunday 3:15pm EST – 20/05/2012
Recent clashes: Crows have won 5 of the last 7 matches vs the Blues with the blues winning a close 6 point victory last year
AFL Tipping: 72% Blues 28% Crows
Game preview: An interesting game on statistics. The Crows haven’t won in Melbourne since 2009, they are by far the worst team at travelling in the league. The Crows come into this off a big win over the Cats and an extra day rest while the Blues come into it off a loss to St Kilda. Walker is a HUGE out for the Crows, he has had a massive influence on their scoring up forward. Vince, Symes, Martin, Thompson and Lynch are all quality ins while Carlton will certainly be welcoming back Yarran and Thornton and Collins. With Yarran back for the Blues and Walker out for the Crows, we give the advantage to the Blues due to this being played in Melbourne.
Carlton by 7 points
Line: Adelaide +15.5 points
West Coast Eagles ($1.40) vs St Kilda Saints ($2.95) – Sunday 2:40pm WST – 20/05/2012
Recent clashes: Saints have won 5 of the last 7 including a 21 point win at ES in round 17 last year.
AFL Tipping: 87% Eagles 13% Saints
Game preview: Selwood, Naitanui, Schofield, Swift, Stevenson and Stevens are all very handy ins for the Eagles who drop Brown, Neates and Lycett. Gwilt, Cripps and Newnes all get put in the mix for the Saints. The Eagles were horrible on the weekend, simply horrible. St Kilda on the other hand were good. They won due to their accuracy in front of goal. A massive stat that will decide this game is the inside 50 mark count. St Kilda allowed Carlton 16 marks inside 50. That is CRIMINAL. Carlton didn’t slot the easy ones and paid the price on the scoreboard. Saints have a good shot but the Eagles should out muscle them.
West Coast by 22
Line: West Coast -17.5
Betting
West Coast 1-39 at $2.25
Geelong +21.5 at $1.44
Essendon-4.5 at $1.63
Hawthorn 1-39 at $2.20
Carlton 1-39 at $2.30
Please note
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice.
All lines quoted are taken from Centrebet
