Please note
All Injury updates can be found here.
First Teams sheets can be found here.
Watch delayed games.. Live over the internet by: Downloading TVU Player, then going to Channel 80438.
Teams with the BYE
Essendon Bombers
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Collingwood Magpies ($1.31) vs Geelong Cats ($3.45)
Friday 7:40pm AEST – 02/09/2011
Ladder position: 1 vs 2
Recent clashes: Cats have won 3 of the last 4 Home & Away games including a 3 point win eariler this year
Stats
Collingwood averages 20 more kicks
Geelong averages 20 more handballs
Geelong averages 3 more marks
Collingwood averages 2 more scoring shots
Both teams average 70 tackles
Geelong averages 6 more hitouts
Collingwood averages 21.90 disposals per goal
Geelong averages 23.09 disposals per goal
Team Changes
Collingwood: IN: Wellingham, Ball, Tarrant – OUT: Davis, Thomas, Young
Geelong: IN: Milburn, Duncan – OUT: Byrnes, Lonergan
The Verdict
No Mooney, Byrnes, Lonergan or Corey for Cats vs a Pies team without Davis, Thomas and Shaw. One must also expect Harry Taylor to be a late withdrawel. Even as an avid Cats fan and going to this game, the edge goes towards the Pies. What will make the difference for the Cats in this game is if they can bring the same intensity they brought to the game eariler in the year. The stats tell us this game will be tight but we expect the Pies to win the midfield battle and that will be the difference.
Collingwood by 26 points
Betting Options
2 units Collingwood 1-39 at $2.13
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Gold Coast Suns ($7.00) vs Hawthorn Hawks ($1.10)
Saturday 1:10pm AEST – 03/09/2011
Ladder position: 16 vs 3
Recent clashes: Hawthorn won the only match by 71 points
Stats
Hawthorn averages 50 more kicks
Hawthorn averages 9 more handballs
Hawthorn averages 35 more marks
Hawthorn averages 8 more scoring shots
Hawthorn averages 4 more tackles
Hawthorn averages 10 more hitouts
Hawthorn averages 25.50 disposals per goal
Gold Coast averages 36.03 disposals per goal
Team Changes
Gold Coast: IN: Fraser, Toy, Gillbee, Tippett – OUT: Iles, Hickey, Tape, Nathan Ablett
Hawthorn: In: Bateman, Ellis, Ladson, Mitchell, Johnson, Lisle, Stratton, Cheney – OUT: Bailey, Birchall, Franklin, Hodge, Lewis, Sewell, Rioli, Burgoyne
The Verdict
Hawthorn may be resting quite a few of their better players but the long season has hurt the Gold Coast young kids and they are just not up to the standard of the Hawks. We cannot see it blowing out massively, but the Hawks will safely handle the Suns.
Hawthorn by 38
Betting Options
5 Units Gold Coast +70.5 at $1.24
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Western Bulldogs ($1.08) vs Fremantle Dockers ($8.05)
Saturday 2:10pm AEST – 03/09/2011
Ladder position: 13 vs 10
Recent clashes: Dogs have won 6 of the last 7 matchs. Fremantle won the last game in Perth by 7 points
Stats
Western Bulldogs averages 8 more kicks
Fremantle averages 3 more handballs
Fremantle averages 4 more marks
Both teams average 24 scoring shots
Fremantle averages 4 more tackles
Fremantle averages 8 more hitouts
Western Bulldogs averages 25.52 disposals per goal
Fremantle averages 29.91 disposals per goal
Team Changes
Western Bulldogs: IN: Hydson, Wood, Wallis – OUT: Addison, Hill, Cordy
Fremantle: IN: Grover, Bucovaz, Bollenhagen, Silvagni, Pitt – OUT: Ibbotson, Palmer, Fyfe, Faulks, Lower
The Verdict
Fremantle have a horrible record at Ethiad and with players like Fyfe, Lower and Palmer being put on ice combined with those already resting from last week, this game will be a cakewalk for the Bulldogs.
Western Bulldogs by 62
Betting Options
5 Units Western Bulldogs -21.5 at $1.25
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Sydney Swans ($1.14) vs Brisbane Lions ($5.75)
Saturday 4:10pm AEST – 03/09/2011
Ladder position: 7 vs 15
Recent clashes: Sydney has won 3 of the last 4 games with wins by 20, 38 and 65 recently
Stats
Sydney averages 6 more kicks
Brisbane averages 15 more handballs
Brisbane averages 10 more marks
Sydney averages 3 more scoring shots
Sydney averages 12 more tackles
Both teams average 42 hitouts
Sydney averages 28.27 disposals per goal
Brisbane averages 28.47 disposals per goal
Team Changes
Sydney: In: McVeigh – OUT: Meredith
Brisbane: In: Hawksley, Harwood – OUT: Power, Staker
The Verdict
Sydney have been in fine form but the same can be said for Brisbane. On the statistical scoreboard, Brisbane and Sydney are very close. The one stat you cannot account for is heart and spirit and that is what Sydney showed last week. Sydney are huge favourites but we can’t see them blowing this game away.
Sydney by 22 points
Betting Options
5 Units Brisbane +59.5 at $1.26
1 Unit Brisbane +37.5 at $1.81
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Carlton Blues ($1.67) vs St Kilda Saints ($2.21)
Saturday 7:10pm AEST – 03/09/2011
Ladder position: 5 vs 6
Recent clashes: Carlton have won the last 2 games by 61 and 3
Stats
Carlton averages 16 more kicks
St Kilda averages 8 more handballs
Carlton averages 3 more marks
Carlton averages 5 more scoring shots
Carlton averages 2 more tackles
Carlton averages 6 more hitouts
Carlton averages 25.36 disposals per goal
St Kilda averages 29.46 disposals per goal
Team Changes
Carlton: In: O’hAilpin, Lucas, Tuohy – OUT: Thornton, Ellard, Davies
St Kilda: In: Gardiner – OUT: Armitage
The Verdict
All of the statistics point towards Carlton and you would expect they want to prove they are the real deal in this game. On the other hand, St Kilda need to win this game to get a home final, so they also have a lot to prove. Carlton are just a class above St Kilda and have been all year.
Carlton by 37 points
Betting Options
5 Units Carlton +22.5 at $1.26
1 Unit Carlton -24.5 at $3.05
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West Coast Eagles ($1.15) vs Adelaide Crows ($5.50)
Saturday 5:10pm AWST (7:10pm AEST) – 03/09/2011
Ladder position: 4 vs 14
Recent clashes: West Coast won the last meeting eariler in the year by 39 points
Stats
West Coast averages 6 more kicks
Adelaide averages 9 more handballs
Adelaide 2 more marks
West Coast averages 6 more scoring shots
West Coast averages 6 more tackles
West Coast averages 5 more hitouts
West Coast averages 25.01 disposals per goal
Adelaide averages 30.87 disposals per goal
Team Changes
West Coast: IN: Butler, Darling – OUT: Schofield, Hams
Adelaide: IN: Doughty, Henderson, Tambling, Callinan: OUT: Otten, Martin, Riley, Gunston
The Verdict
West Coast go into this game overwhelming favourites and for good reason. All the statistics and the homeground advantage are pointing towards a win to the Eagles and we agree with what the stats are saying. Eagles want to play themselves into good form going into finals as they have been fairly lackluster the last month. They haven’t been able to kick away with the game and we think it will happen again.
Eagles by 27 points
Betting Options
5 Units West Coast -10.5 at $1.26
1 Unit West Coast 1-39 at $2.22
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Port Adelaide Power ($2.55) vs Melbourne Demons ($1.52)
Sunday 2:40pm ACST (3:10pm AEST) – 04/09/2011
Ladder position: 17 vs 12
Recent clashes: Melbourne have won 3 of the last 4 games by 11, 1 and 21 points
Stats
Melbourne averages 5 more kicks
Melbourne averages 16 more handballs
Melbourne averages 5 more marks
Melbourne averages 5 more scoring shots
Melbourne averages 5 more tackles
Melbourne averages 12 more hitouts
Melbourne averages 27.52 disposals per goal
Port Adelaide averages 29.59 disposals per goal
Team Changes
Port Adelaide: IN: Brogan, Cornes, Young – OUT: No Change
Melbourne: IN: Bate, Bail, Fitzpatrick, Nicholson – OUT: Jurrah
The Verdict
Both teams played well last week but Port Adelaide were fairly stiff with some bad umpiring and didn’t last the distance to lose in the end. They can’t play out 4QTRS with this team. Port Adelaide have the most to gain from losing this match and we feel that is what will happen with Melbourne Coach Viney wanting to chuck his name in the ring with a good win in the final game to get that coaching role.
Melbourne by 26 points
Betting Options
5 Units Melbourne +17.5 at $1.25
1 Unit Melbourne -12.5 at $1.97
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Richmond Tigers ($2.55) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos ($1.52)
Sunday 4:40pm AEST – 04/09/2011
Ladder position: 11 vs 9
Recent clashes: Richmond won the last game eariler in the year by 9 points
Stats
North Melbourne averages 2 more kicks
Richmond averages 4 more handballs
Richmond averages 6 more marks
North Melbourne averages 1 more scoring shot
North Melbourne averages 2 more tackles
North Melbourne averages 9 more hitouts
North Melbourne averages 25.45 disposals per goal
Richmond averages 25.77 disposals per goal
Team Changes
Richmond: In: White, Dea, Nason, MacDonald – OUT: King
North Melbourne: IN: McIntosh, Pratt, Warren, Cunnington, Black, Macmillan, Atley – OUT: Wells, Hansen, Greenwood, Ziebell
The Verdict
An evenly matched afair on the stats sheet. It looks like the Roos have put a few of their players out of the squad early and lost two valueable players due to suspensions. Tigers want to win this game and will be hungry to end the season on a high as this draft really doesn’t matter with little to no good players available after being grabbed by GWS/GCFC. The Tigers will have more to give here and pull out a surprise win.
Tigers by 12 points
Betting Options
5 Units Richmond +40.5 at $1.25
1 Unit Richmond 1-24 at $4.25
Best Bets of the Round
In order of preference
Carlton +22.5 at $1.26
Gold Coast +70.5 at $1.24
Melbourne +17.5 at $1.25
Richmond +40.5 at $1.25
Please note
Majority of Betting Options are based on Centrebet’s Pick Your Own Line and supplied starting odds are based on head to head market on Centrebet. Better odds can be achieved by shopping around. Sportsbet pay significantly LESS for the Pick Your Own Line margins. Sportsbet only give better FULL line prices and better deals on first goal kicker etc.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author will not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
