Welcome to the Round 23 AFL Preview. Finally, we can start talking about actual football. Essendon have been banned from the 2013 Finals after negotiations between the AFL and Essendon met common ground. The AFL Commission hasn’t stripped the club of its points, which means Essendon will finish the season in ninth position. James Hird has been suspended for 12 months, Danny Corcoran suspended for 4 months, while Mark Thompson has been fined $30,000. Dr Bruce Reid will take his case to the Supreme Court. On top of the Finals ban, Essendon have also been fined $2 million and had its 2013/2014 1st & 2nd round draft picks taken away (it did get an end of 1st round draft pick back for the 2014 draft). It is the most severe penalty ever handed out to a club in AFL/VFL history.
What the situation does bring is seven September shaping games for the final round of the Home & Away Fixture. With the Bombers no longer involved in finals action, it has created an opportunity for all of Carlton, Brisbane, North Melbourne, Adelaide and West Coast. I’ll go through the relevant scenarios of these clubs in each match preview. It was originally looking like a dull round, but with so many teams’ seasons on the line, we can only expect to witness some desperate contests. As you’ll see below, the fight for that final 8th position is as tight as it gets.
Best Bet
Hawthorn @ the -12.5 line
SYDNEY ($2.55) VS HAWTHORN ($1.51)
AT ANZ STADIUM, FRIDAY 30/08, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2013, R7, Hawthorn 18.11 (119) defeated Sydney 12.10 (82) at MCG
Line: Sydney -12.5, Hawthorn +12.5
After the significant loss to Geelong, the Sydney Swans have kissed a home Qualifying Final goodbye. The Cats gave Sydney a downright smashing in key statistic areas. It was -84 in disposals, -2 in contested possession (Swans clearly No.1 in the competition), -42 for marks, -9 for centre clearances, -24 for I50s and the most concerning, -30 for tackles (again, Swans clearly No.1 in the competition). Another issue for Sydney is the lengthening injury list. Dan Hannebery will miss with a heavy knock, while Rhyce Shaw will have to undergo a knee reconstruction. Add those names to Jetta, Goodes, Reid, Johnson, Roberts-Thomson and the Sydney depth is experiencing its ultimate test.
A win to Hawthorn will see top position secured. The Hawks were once again tested on the weekend, with North Melbourne in control of the game for large periods. Its contested numbers were again down, but it looked to lift the intensity once again when the game was on the line. Alastair Clarkson wouldn’t want to be messing with his team’s form too much coming into September. Liam Shiels looks to have reinjured his ankle, while Jordan Lewis has recovered from a corked hip. Cyril Rioli and Brent Guerra will be rested.
I’m sure the Hawks will be looking to make a statement before finals. The Swans are sore and will have to rest key players. Hawthorn’s -12.5 line is outstanding value.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 29 POINTS
ST KILDA ($2.35) VS FREMANTLE ($1.58)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 31/08, 13:45
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2013, R15, Fremantle 15.10 (100) defeated St Kilda 11.4 (70) at PS
Line: St Kilda +10.5, Fremantle -10.5
St Kilda produced its first win since June against the tiring Gold Coast Suns. This game doesn’t hold too many ramifications in regards to a Saints result, but the club will farewell three of its favourite sons in Stephen Milne, Justin Koschitzke and Jason Blake. In the process, Koschitzke will notch up his highly publicised 200th game, which is more than deserved. It has been a challenging season for the Saints, but it will get the opportunity to bring in talented 18 year old with the No.3 draft pick.
Wow, Ross Lyon has certainly made his finals intentions clear by making 10 changes. The rested names include Ballantyne, Suban, Hill, Johnson, Clarke, Mundy, Walters, Spurr, Dawson and Fyfe. No risks taken at all. The Dockers need a win and an upset Geelong loss to gain itself a home Qualifying Final, but it appears they have crossed that off as a realistic option. The AFL has hinted that a Geelong vs Fremantle Qualifying Final could be played at Simonds Stadium, which the Dockers have described as “inconceivable”. It’s not hard to see why as Lyon certainly wouldn’t hold any fears of playing a final at Etihad Stadium. He has an imposing record there as St Kilda coach and has won the last 5 at the venue in charge of Fremantle.
The wholesale Fremantle changes have thrown the expectations of this match and the odds have tightened right up accordingly. The Dockers still have a decent line up despite the bulk changes, but expect a much closer contest now.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 6 POINTS
GEELONG ($1.06) VS BRISBANE ($9.00)
AT SIMONDS STADIUM, SATURDAY 31/08, 14:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2013, R13, Brisbane 15.13 (103) defeated Geelong 14.14 (98) at G
Line: Geelong -54.5, Brisbane +54.5
All of a sudden, this game holds quite a bit of significance. Firstly, Geelong needs to win to secure a home Qualifying Final. Secondly, Brisbane is now back in the race for a final 8 berth after the Essendon penalty. The Lions require Port Adelaide to beat Carlton, as well as knocking off Geelong themselves.
The Cats flexed its muscle against fellow contender Sydney last week, ending the game with a convincing victory. It has seen the Cats shorten to equal Premiership favouritism with Hawthorn at $3.00. One of the more defining things for Geelong is that there is a large group of players pushing for selection in the VFL including Josh Hunt, Jordan Murdoch, Taylor Hunt, George Horlin-Smith, Billie Smedts, Shane Kersten, Jordan Schroder and George Burbury. A 201 point win against Bendigo suggests the whole side is in form.
It is a farcical situation to see the Lions still in contention for a finals position, only weeks after Michael Voss was sacked. Mark Harvey will embrace the opportunity, but the task at hand is arguably the most difficult in the AFL. Daniel Merrett will miss the game after fracturing his ankle against the Western Bulldogs. After being written off for the season, Brent Moloney returns for a crack at September action.
It is a nice hit out for Geelong before its tilt at Premiership glory. They’ll get home in a gallop.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 48 POINTS
PORT ADELAIDE ($1.77) VS CARLTON ($2.05)
AT AAMI STADIUM, SATURDAY 31/08, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2013, R8, Carlton 16.13 (109) defeated Port 14.7 (91) at ES
Line: Port -4.5, Carlton +4.5
At around 10pm on Saturday night, it appeared that this was going to be a contest to decide 8th position. Now with Essendon banned, they could both end up in the finals.
Port Adelaide will finish 7th no matter what the result is. A 74 point loss to Fremantle isn’t the most credible form leading into the clubs first September appearance since 2007, but at least it is guaranteed a position in the last 8. It is sometimes easy to forget that the Power have the third youngest squad behind Gold Coast and GWS this year, so making the finals is a monumental effort with a first year coach. Ken Hinkley has managed to inject some passion and guts into this team, but his toughest test could be getting his side to produce the proven intensity after a long season. It is the last ever AFL game at AAMI Stadium, so the Power would love to finish on a high there.
Carlton would have been a shattered unit after Saturday night. At the time, it had thought that its arch rival had knocked it out of finals contention again. Ironically, it is the same club that has given the Blues one last chance of September action. Brock McLean will be unavailable after getting subbed with a quad injury, but Kreuzer, Garlett and Walker will return.
It is a tough encounter to split. Port has continuously beaten the teams it needed to at AAMI, but its energy looks sapped.
CARLTON TO WIN BY 1 POINT
ESSENDON ($3.20) VS RICHMOND ($1.35)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 31/08, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2013, R9, Richmond 9.7 (68) lost to Essendon 13.13 (91) at MCG
Line: Essendon +25.5, Richmond -25.5
There are various media outlets describing this game as a “dead rubber”, but the result is still going to shape the 8. Unfortunately for Richmond, it is in a very difficult position. The Tigers would much prefer to finish 6th, where it would play Port Adelaide in a home Elimination Final. For that to happen, it would have to lose to Essendon and hope that Collingwood defeats North Melbourne, as the Pies have a lower percentage. It would certainly want to eliminate the potential of playing bogey opponents Carlton or North Melbourne at the MCG. So what does Damien Hardwick do? Does he play the best possible side, creating momentum and confidence going into the Elimination final or rest any sore players ahead of its first finals series since 2001? It’s an extremely unique situation. Shane Edwards will miss due to suspension, while Jack Riewoldt will be have his back rested.
There has already been plenty discussed about Essendon and there isn’t too much to add. Simon Goodwin will take the reins from the suspended James Hird. The Bombers only have pride to play for so it will be interesting to see what type of effort is produced.
You’d be mad to bet on this game. There is too much unpredictability to counter.
RICHMOND TO WIN BY 20 POINTS
WEST COAST ($1.96) VS ADELAIDE ($1.82)
AT PATERSONS STADIUM, SATURDAY 31/08, 20:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2013, R15, Adelaide 9.15 (69) lost to West Coast 11.9 (75) at A
Line: West Coast +2.5, Adelaide -2.5
This is yet another game that has become important from the Essendon circumstances. Both these sides now have the opportunity of grasping the last available spot in the 8. Each side requires a significant victory against the other to boost percentages, as well as relying on all three of Carlton, Brisbane and North Melbourne to lose. It certainly isn’t an unrealistic state of affairs.
The Eagles have been as flat as a tack. Two decisive losses to Geelong and Collingwood have knocked any ounce of confidence out of John Worsfold’s men. Josh Kennedy has now had consecutive goalless outings, blowing his Coleman Medal chances away. The word around the media was that the Eagles board were looking to re-sign Worsfold, but the recent outputs are sure to have some key decision makers cooling their original interest.
Adelaide’s form has been respectable over the last 6 weeks, without exactly gaining the required results. The greatest positive of the win against Melbourne was the return to form of Scott Thompson. He gathered 33 touches after averaging 5 less disposals per game compared to last season. Lewis Johnston is producing as the genuine missing forward target, kicking 6 goals against Melbourne.
The Adelaide form and confidence is currently far superior. It will be a tight contest.
ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 8 POINTS
GOLD COAST ($1.11) VS GWS ($6.50)
AT METRICON STADIUM, SUNDAY 01/09, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2013, R5, GWS 16.8 (104) lost to Gold Coast 21.22 (148) at MO
Line: Gold Coast -38.5, GWS +38.5
This has all the makings of being a snore fest. The two expansion sides appear to be tiring by the week and would be grateful to be playing one another.
The Suns are in a mini form slump. Its numbers have dropped dramatically and the proof was in the pudding against the Saints. It gathered only 107 contested possessions (average 140), 30 clearances (average 38.3), 28 tackles (average 60.3) and 35 I50s (average 49.1). They are the falling statistics of the second youngest side in the competition. Gary Ablett’s once unassailable Brownlow Medal lead has really hit a snag in recent weeks. The pack is closing in after numerous non influential games due to tight attention.
The Giants didn’t have much to play for apart from getting Jeremy Cameron a Coleman Medal. Unfortunately a goalless game against Richmond has made the task extremely difficult, with Cameron now 4 goals in arrears to Jarryd Roughead. It would be great to see him kick a bag of goals and bring GWS its first award.
I’m backing Ablett to shake the likely tight tag and have a big game to finish off the season. He is due and needs a strong performance to hold the Brownlow contenders at bay.
GOLD COAST TO WIN BY 30 POINTS
COLLINGWOOD ($1.53) VS NORTH MELBOURNE ($2.50)
AT THE MCG, SUNDAY 01/09, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2013, R1, North 13.9 (87) lost to Collingwood 15.13 (103) at ES
Line: Collingwood -11.5, North +11.5
The significance of this game rides on the results of Saturday. Should those results fall in the interest of this match, it is arguably the most important encounter of the round.
Collingwood are in a similar situation to Richmond. It would prefer to play an interstate club in Victoria and finishing 6th offers that opportunity. If Richmond wins, it is likely to finish 6th anyway but it will know the exact situation come the bounce of the ball. Dane Swan has rocketed into Brownlow Medal calculations after an extremely slow start to the season. He has put together 8 consecutive 30+ disposal games and kicked 10 goals in the same period of time. He has hit prime form. His recent record against North is difficult to match. Dayne Beams is back, but Luke Ball will miss with a calf injury.
In most cases, I’d consider North Melbourne a serious chance here. Unfortunately, injuries have finally struck hard and the game isn’t getting played at Etihad Stadium. The Roos have garnered 8 of its 9 wins at Etihad, with the other coming in Hobart. At Etihad, it averages 119.85 points per game. Away from Etihad, it averages only 78 points per game. The unavailability of Scott Thompson and Nathan Grima down back makes things even harder, with Travis Cloke and Ben Reid pushing opposition defences tight.
The numbers don’t stack well for North Melbourne. The depth will be tested a little too much away from the Etihad fortress.
COLLINGWOOD TO WIN BY 20 POINTS
WESTERN BULLDOGS ($1.10) VS MELBOURNE ($7.00)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 01/09, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2013, R14, Melbourne 15.13 (103) defeated Dogs 15.10 (100) at MCG
Line: Dogs -41.5, Melbourne +41.5
The Western Bulldogs will have a bit of a point to prove after surprisingly going down to Melbourne in Round 14. The Dogs gave the Dees a large start and despite coming back from 7 goals down, it couldn’t get the points. It was a similar situation against Brisbane last week. After trialling by 50 points at half time, the Dogs once again came storming home to just fall short. You can’t fault the determination of the young squad, but it must improve the first half efforts. It has only won 5 first quarters and 4 second quarters throughout the year, meaning that it is behind the eight ball more often than not come halftime.
The nightmare is almost over for Melbourne. It has suffered 8 demoralising losses since its win against the Western Bulldogs in Round 14 and the two clubs have headed in completely different directions in that time. David Rodan’s season is finished after suffering a serious leg injury against Adelaide and it could spell the end of his intermittent career.
The form lines are defining. Brendan McCartney has got his team playing consistent and competitive footy. I’d be extremely surprised if the Dogs let this one slip.
WESTERN BULLDOGS TO WIN BY 34 POINTS
