Welcome to The Profits round 23 analysis with Drew and Euan. We are coming into the business end of the year and there are normally some juicy odds on offer with certain teams giving up and resting players. We love to hear your feedback and thoughts so tweet @TheProfitsComAu and we will comment/retweet! Good luck and happy punting!
You can find Full teams from the AFL website here – www.afl.com.au
You can find an up to date Injury List here – http://www.injuryupdate.com.au/afl-injury-list.php
Hawthorn Hawks ($1.26) vs West Coast Eagles ($3.90) – MCG, Friday August 31, 7.50pm
Recent clashes: West Coast 5.21 (51) d Hawthorn 5.16 (46), round four, 2012 at Patersons Stadium
Game preview: A final before a final. West Coast needs to win to ensure a top 4 finish and a home final so they will be desperate against this strong Hawthorn team. There are good match ups in the centre and really, across the ground the teams are pretty even. If the game was in Perth the tip would be the Eagles but at the MCG I favour the Hawks.
Hawks by 30
Line: Hawks -27.5
Geelong Cats ($1.68) vs Sydney Swan ($2.20) – Simonds Stadium, Saturday September 1, 1.45pm
Recent clashes: Sydney Swans 12.8 (80) d Geelong 11.8 (74), round 13, 2012 at the SCG
Game preview: Another match that has two finalists playing each other before the finals week. The worst that can happen to Sydney should they lose is a drop from 2nd to 3rd. Does that mean a home final? A win will keep them 2nd or if the Hawks lose they can steal top spot. A Geelong win can advance them to 5th above Collingwood. So with regard to the double chance nothing changes for either team apart from playing well as a good rehearsal for the finals.
Cats by 14
Line: Cats -6.5
Adelaide Crows ($1.01) vs Gold Coast Suns ($17.00) – AAMI Stadium, Saturday September 1, 1.40pm
Recent clashes: Gold Coast 10.8 (68) def by Adelaide 19.23 (137), round 1, 2012 at Metricon Stadium
Game preview: A terrific win for the Suns last week against Carlton but it would be too much to think that they can do it again against the Crows in Adelaide. There would have to be a 10 goal margin in this game as a minimum. Adelaide needs a strong showing to prepare for the finals but the Suns could finish the season with some confidence if they ensure the final margin is about 7 or 8 goals.
Crows by 55
Line: Suns +67.5
Greater Western Sydney Giants ($17.00) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos ($1.01) – Skoda Stadium, Saturday September 1, 4.40pm
Recent clashes: North Melbourne 28.15 (183) d Greater Western Sydney 8.6 (54) at Blundstone Arena
Game preview: The last time these two played North murdered the Giants and after last week’s loss to Fremantle North Melbourne will want to murder again. But, they might rest players too because North can finish 7th or 8th – that’s it. The Giants, to celebrate the re-signing of Sheedy, need to make sure the result is an improvement on the last effort against North.
Kangaroos by 73
Line: Giants +84.5
Essendon Bombers ($5.00) vs Collingwood Magpies ($1.17) – MCG, Saturday September 1, 7.40pm
Recent clashes: Collingwood 11.14 (80) d Essendon 11.13 (79) round five, 2011 at the MCG
Game preview: This was a 1 point game last time they played but things have changed for both teams since then. Collingwood must win to give them a chance to slip back into the top 4 should the Eagles lose while with Essendon nothing matters any more as they will be playing their last game for the season Saturday night. One team motivated another team decimated.
Magpies by 36
Line: Magpies -34.5
Freemantle Dockers ($1.02) vs Melbourne Demons ($14.00) – Patersons Stadium, Saturday September 1, 5.40pm
Recent clashes: Melbourne 12.11 (83) lost to Fremantle 18.9 (117), round 16, 2012 at Etihad Stadium
Game preview: The only interest in this game is whether Pavlich will be allowed to play so he can win the Coleman medal? That would be another feather in a decorated cap for Pav who must be wondering at times why he stayed at Freo. However, Fremantle may need to tank their winning margin if games work out with Eagles finishing 5th.. as they would want to finish 8th to play Eagles. Melbourne’s season was a shocker and with nothing to lose the Dockers better be careful they don’t let this game slip. What combination of Eagles win / loss and Freo win / loss gives us an elimination final in Perth? Wouldn’t that be something?
Dockers by 32
Line: Demons +53.5
Carlton Blues ($2.05) vs St Kilda Saints ($1.78) – Etihad Stadium, Sunday September, 1.10pm
Recent clashes: Carlton 14.14 (98) def by St Kilda 19.8 (122), round 7, 2012, at Etihad Stadium
Game preview: It has been confirmed that Ratten will no longer coach Carlton at the end of the season. This is certainly a hard game to handicap. If Rattan was replaced immediately by the next coach, the tip would be with Carlton.. but if you remember back to the Demons first round loss, even the most influential reasons can’t stir up a struggling team under a coach they don’t fully believe in.
Saints by 30
Line: Saints -4.5
Richmond Tigers ($1.10) vs Port Adelaide Power ($6.75) – MCG, Sunday, September 2, 3.15pm
Recent clashes: Richmond 13.13 (91) d Port Adelaide 8.6 (54), round six, 2012, at the AAMI Stadium
Game preview: The Tigers can finish a disappointing but potential season with a blast and beat the Power convincingly. The Coleman medal for Reiwoldt is also a possibility especially if Pavlich is deemed unfit to play. Port has had a tough season during which they lost a coach and we all know Richmond’s close losses.
Tigers by 58
Line: Tigers -42.5
Brisbane Lions ($1.18) vs Western Bulldogs ($4.85) – The Gabba, Sunday September 2, 4.40pm
Recent clashes: Brisbane Lions 18.6 (114) d Western Bulldogs 7.14 (56), round 13, 2012, at Etihad Stadium
Game preview: The Lions did okay this season – unexpectedly so. 10 wins after they beat the Bulldogs is a reasonable result considering expectations by the experts. The Bulldogs have been the opposite with expectations far exceeding their results. Not a great intro to AFL coaching for the new Western Bulldogs coach who might as well start all over next season. Brisbane has a good base to work off but they are a couple of seasons and a couple of players off making the finals.
Lions by 42
Line: Lions -34.5
Betting
BEST BET: Saints -4.5 at $1.91
Geelong -6.5 at $1.91
Demons +68.5 at $1.42
Richmond +40 at $1.78
Hawthorn 1-39 at $2.25
Please note
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice.
All lines quoted are taken from Centrebet
