Welcome to the Round 22 AFL Preview. It was a weekend that proved that there is daylight between the top 4 and the rest. Hawthorn, Geelong, Sydney and Fremantle all had resounding wins and cemented their September double chances. There is now a 10 point gap between fourth and fifth. The big winners of the round were Carlton, who overcame a 5 goal quarter time deficit and defeated the much fancied Richmond, keeping its finals chances alive. If Carlton and Fremantle win this week, we will find ourselves with a mini Round 23 elimination final between Port Adelaide and the Blues.
I hope you have a commitment free Saturday, as four of the five games hold ladder defining relevance. Geelong vs Sydney at Simonds Stadium is the pick of the bunch, as it is likely to decide a home Qualifying Final. Hawthorn will be looking to consolidate its top position against the inform North Melbourne, especially with an away Grand Final replay in Round 23. There will certainly be some questions answered come Saturday night.
The other significant announcement during the week is that Essendon’s requested adjournment of the AFL Commission hearing has been granted. This means that the Bombers are likely to take its place in the 2013 Finals Series. The likes of North Melbourne and West Coast can no longer hope for a generous gift from the AFL by finishing ninth.
Best Bets
Geelong to win at the 1-39 margin @ $2.25
Gold Coast to win @ $1.97
COLLINGWOOD ($1.13) VS WEST COAST ($6.00)
AT THE MCG, FRIDAY 23/08, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2012, SF, Collingwood 10.13 (73) defeated West Coast 9.6 (60) at MCG
Line: Collingwood -35.5, West Coast +35.5
What is to be made of Collingwood’s form? At times it can look irresistible with an intensity that appears close to impossible to match. On other occasions, it looks down on commitment and easy to score against. Hawthorn is the Pies obvious kryptonite. The Hawks managed 20 inside 50 marks from only 52 forward arc entrances, showing that Collingwood’s pressure was down on previous weeks. Despite the constant forward 50 marking of Hawthorn, Nathan Buckley stubbornly kept Ben Reid forward and he was starved of opportunities. In more bad news for the Pies, Dale Thomas broke down in his comeback VFL game to the same ankle injury. He may not be seen in Collingwood colours again if you believe the trade/free agency rumours.
If West Coast’s season wasn’t already over, it is now after a good old smashing from Geelong and the AFL confirming Essendon are unlikely to be stripped of points before September. It was a familiar home tail for the Eagles, registering its eighth loss of the season at its usual Patersons Stadium fortress. No big names will be risked for the remainder of the season.
Collingwood haven’t lost to West Coast at the MCG since Round 2, 1995. Expect that trend to continue.
COLLINGWOOD TO WIN BY 35 POINTS
ADELAIDE ($1.02) VS MELBOURNE ($14.00)
AT AAMI STADIUM, SATURDAY 24/08, 13:45
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2012, R22, Melbourne 11.15 (81) lost to Adelaide 22.18 (150) at MCG
Line: Adelaide -63.5, Melbourne +63.5
This is a genuine dead rubber that holds little interest to anyone but the supporters of each side. Thankfully we only need to endure 25 minutes of this game before the real action begins.
Brenton Sanderson is beginning to show signs of a frustrating man. His playing and coaching career at Geelong portrayed a calm and modest individual, but a push to the chest of Ben Rutten showed there is more to him than that. It isn’t at all a bad thing and while a public exhibition of anger can be belittling to certain individuals, it can have an immediate impact on the field. The Crows will be looking to finish its association with AAMI Stadium in style.
There isn’t much more to discuss in regards to Melbourne. It was again destroyed in key areas. Sam Blease, James Strauss, Jack Fitzpatrick and Shannon Byrnes are all out due to injury for the trip to Adelaide meaning another large rotation of players.
Adelaide will win in a canter. It is likely to be another ugly day for the Dees.
ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 70 POINTS
NORTH MELBOURNE ($3.15) VS HAWTHORN ($1.36)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 24/08, 14:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2013, R5, Hawthorn 14.15 (99) defeated North 13.18 (96) at MCG
Line: North +18.5, Hawthorn -18.5
This is an extremely interesting contest, especially at Etihad Stadium. 8 of North Melbourne’s 9 wins have come at Docklands, while the scoring rate has been enormous, averaging 128.5 points per victory. You could argue that Brad Scott’s men are downhill skiers at the venue, but small losses against Collingwood, Geelong, Adelaide and Carlton suggest that the Roos are just a more competitive outfit there. North Melbourne will be boosted by the inclusion of Jack Ziebell, but Scott Thompson will miss the last two games of the season with a bruised lung.
Hawthorn gave a nice little reminder of where it is at against Collingwood. It had a large rise in contested possessions and tackles, showing it can lift the intensity when required. There is a bit of an assumption that the Hawks aren’t as strong at Etihad Stadium, but it hasn’t lost a game there since Round 3 2010. Luke Hodge and Grant Birchall got through Friday night superbly, as both were amongst the best players on the ground despite fitness question marks. They are sure to benefit from the extra game time before September.
The Hawks were fantastic on Saturday night. Hard to see North beating a Hawthorn side beginning to peak for its premiership assault.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 28 POINTS
GEELONG ($1.47) VS SYDNEY ($2.70)
AT SIMONDS STADIUM, SATURDAY 24/08, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2013, R4, Sydney 16.7 (103) lost to Geelong 19.10 (124) at SCG
Line: Geelong -13.5, Sydney +13.5
This is by far the highlight of the round. The ramifications are enormous with a home Qualifying Final on the line.
The Cats produced arguably its most impressive four quarter performance of the year against West Coast. It had + differentials in disposals, contested possession, disposal efficiency, marks, clearances, inside 50s and of course goals for the match. It again proved to be the most dangerous intercept team in the competition. 65% of the Cats scoring this year has come directly from turnovers, easily the No.1 ranked club. The Swans are vulnerable to Geelong’s turnover might, possessing the third worst disposal efficiency. Captain Joel Selwood has rocketed to be 2nd favourite for the Brownlow Medal, after an outstanding 5 weeks. He has been getting plenty of the ball averaging 27 disposals, but it is his goal kicking that’s caused havoc, producing 14 goals in that time. Tom Hawkins will return, while Paul Chapman will play his first game since Round 4.
It is a big couple of weeks for the Swans. Geelong at Simonds Stadium, followed by Hawthorn isn’t the most ideal run into the finals. The positive of playing against the best means John Longmire will know exactly where his team is at coming into the business end of the year. The return to form of Josh Kennedy against the Saints would have been a welcomed relief. He gathered 38 touches, 12 clearances and quashed rumours that he was carrying an injury. The drop in form of Dan Hannebery must be of concern, averaging only 19 possessions over the last 3 weeks.
Sydney is the last team to defeat the Cats at Simonds Stadium, but it is impossible to see the Cats coming out flat this time around, especially with so much on the line. Geelong leads the last 5 encounters 3-2, with the margin never blowing out any further than 34 points. The Geelong 1-39 point margin at $2.25 looks outstanding value.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 17 POINTS
CARLTON ($1.39) VS ESSENDON ($2.95)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 24/08, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2013, R11, Essendon 11.11 (77) defeated Carlton 10.12 (72) at MCG
Line: Carlton -19.5, Essendon +19.5
We have a make or break situation here for Carlton. The shock win against Richmond has opened up a potential Round 23 match up against Port Adelaide for 8th spot. The catch is that Carlton must beat the Bombers here and rely on a Fremantle win against Port. The odds suggest it is a very likely circumstance to occur.
The Blues looked like ending the season without a fight when it was 30 points in the rears against Richmond at quarter time, but a stirring comeback, mixed with a small Richmond capitulation has left Mick Malthouse and his men with a new found energy. The Blues will regain Matthew Kreuzer, an extremely important asset to the late September charge.
How can the staff of Essendon possibly have their mind on this match? Mark Thompson has admitted that it is impossible to put the usual time into this game and the latest revelations aren’t going to help that. The AFL has now released a 34 page report detailing the Essendon charges to the public. This has seen the drama erupt further, with Essendon as good as declaring war on Andrew Demetriou and the AFL. The Bombers on field form has been on a downward spiral for many weeks now. It has won only 1 of its last 16 quarters, with a one point success against West Coast the only saviour. The only positive for the Bombers is that it is likely to play finals. Ryder, Hurley and Myers return.
The indicators strongly suggest that an Essendon victory is extremely unlikely here.
CARLTON TO WIN BY 30 POINTS
FREMANTLE ($1.17) VS PORT ADELAIDE ($5.00)
AT PATERSONS STADIUM, SATURDAY 24/08, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2012, R18, Port 6.12 (48) lost to Fremantle 11.9 (75) at A
Line: Fremantle -32.5, Port +32.5
Ladder defining game No.4 for the day and it is just as important as any. Fremantle are still well and truly in the hunt for a home Qualifying Final, especially with two very winnable games. But it must rely on a Geelong Round 22 loss and preferably a Sydney Round 23 loss to slide into that attractive top 2 position. It is difficult to judge a team’s form against Melbourne, but the Dockers look switched on. They are just as capable of bringing home the 2013 Premiership as any of Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney, yet it still trails the big three for favouritism at $5.50. Aaron Sandilands’ poor injury luck has continued, this time with a knock to the face that will require surgery. Hayden Ballantyne is also expected to miss with a shoulder, despite being named.
It is a simple equation for Port Adelaide. Win and it is guaranteed a 2013 finals berth. Lose and it may have to play off for 8th against Carlton the following week. To make matters worse, Ken Hinkley will be without Hamish Hartlett for both games due to an unlucky suspension, although he may have missed with a shoulder injury either way.
It is a difficult task for the Power. Port Adelaide weren’t great against Gold Coast and will have to up the ante significantly to compete with the disciplined Dockers.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 33 POINTS
ST KILDA ($1.83) VS GOLD COAST ($1.97)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 25/08, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2013, R1, Gold Coast 13.12 (90) defeated St Kilda 10.17 (77) at MS
Line: St Kilda -2.5, Gold Coast +2.5
It is another dead rubber, but an interesting contest. The Saints are currently on a streak of 8 losses and the confidence is dropping with every game it plays. St Kilda is bottom three for contested possessions, clearances, centre clearances, tackles, inside 50s and goals. It paints an ugly picture for the Saints. Ahmed Saad has had his B sample come back positive, which will see him miss the rest of the season and potentially face a 2 year suspension. It is a bleak situation down at Seaford.
The Suns form hasn’t been outstanding, but it is a lot better than St Kilda’s. It is probably no coincidence that Gold Coast’s outputs have dropped with Gary Ablett’s form. He has been tagged to within an inch of his sanity, but the tactic has been extremely effective. He certainly needs help extra from teammates to block and physically intimidate his opponents. Expect Clinton Jones to get the tight role on Ablett.
The Suns look great value at $1.97. If Ablett can be released, it is difficult seeing the Saints keep up.
GOLD COAST TO WIN BY 16 POINTS
GWS ($16.00) VS RICHMOND ($1.01)
AT SKODA STADIUM, SUNDAY 24/08, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2013, R12, GWS 12.2 (74) lost to Richmond 11.20 (86) at SK
Line: GWS +62.5, Richmond -62.5
There isn’t too much for the Giants to play for, but Jeremy Cameron is certainly creating some excitement by leading the Coleman Medal with 2 rounds remaining. He is level with Jarryd Roughead and Josh Kennedy on 60 goals and an achievement like this would be massive, not just for Cameron, but for the footy club.
Richmond suffered an unexpected reality check against the Blues. After leading by 30 points at quarter time, the Tigers were completely out played. It would have to be a concern for Damien Hardwick, but the GWS game comes at a good time to iron out the flaws. There are some injuries that have come out of the game. Riewoldt hyper-extended his knee and Trent Cotchin a suffered a bruised shin, but they aren’t seen as serious enough to see either miss games. Shane Edwards and Jake King will return to the line up.
Plenty to work on for the Tigers, but it will deal with GWS easily.
RICHMOND TO WIN BY 72 POINTS
BRISBANE ($1.55) VS WESTERN BULLDOGS ($2.45)
AT THE GABBA, SUNDAY 24/08, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2013, R1, Dogs 19.13 (127) defeated Brisbane 7.17 (59) at ES
Line: Brisbane -11.5, Dogs +11.5
What a rabble the Brisbane Lions have been off the field over the last week. The treatment of Michael Voss has been questioned by many in the industry, especially considering it appears that the board headed by Chairman Angus Johnson haven’t got a replacement organised. Paul Roos was the great white hope, but he continuously denies having an interest in the job. It is difficult to believe that there is a better available option than Voss. Leigh Matthews has now popped up as a rival ticket to challenge the Johnson led board and he has the backing of current board members Paul Williams and Mick Power.
It has been a fantastic month for the Western Bulldogs. It has won three of the last four games and now finds itself with 7 wins for the season, a result that Brendan McCartney would have only dreamt of. It continues to have high contested, clearance and tackling numbers, while the outside game has improved out of sight. Tory Dickson took a while to get back into the pace of AFL football, but he showed his quality with 6 goals against Adelaide.
This will be a close encounter. The Bulldogs inside strengths could be too much to counter for the Lions. Their +11.5 line deserves consideration.
WESTERN BULLDOGS TO WIN BY 5 POINTS
