Welcome to the Round 21 AFL preview. It is fair to say that the past week won’t be remembered for its on field action. After 10 days of constant speculation, the AFL finally announced the charges arising from the ASADA led investigation into the Essendon supplement saga. The Essendon Football Club, its coach James Hird, Mark Thompson, Danny Corcoran and Dr Bruce Reid have all been charged with bringing the game into disrepute across a number of different categories. While the announcement is welcomed progression, August 26th is the date of importance when the charges are heard by the AFL Commission. Any penalties will be implemented that day.
The most important information to come out of the latest proceedings is that the players have been cleared of any wrong doing, for now. The interim report suggests that “there is no specific anti-doping rule violation attributed to any individual player for use of AOS-9604 or any other prohibited substance”. At this point in time, there is no evidence to suggest that the players have anything to answer for, but that doesn’t mean that new information can’t change the current situation. It is a very good outcome for the football club and especially the players/families.
The Brisbane Lions also managed to sneak in a bombshell by unexpectedly sacking Michael Voss as coach. It was a widely expected opinion that Voss was on the verge of being offered a new contract, but the Brisbane board has been in contact with prospective candidates for over a month. It certainly added to an already loaded week off the field.
There are plenty of short priced favourites for Round 21, but it is hard not to get excited about the Hawthorn vs Collingwood blockbuster. Let’s hope it provides a rare on field headline.
Best Bet
Richmond to win @ the -21.5 line
HAWTHORN ($1.50) vs COLLINGWOOD ($2.65)
AT THE MCG, FRIDAY 16/08, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2013, R3, COLLINGWOOD 13.12 (90) lost to HAWTHORN 22.13 (145) AT THE MCG
Line: Hawthorn -13.5, Collingwood +13.5
This blockbuster is by far the highlight of the round and could well attract 80,000 to the MCG. If we are provided anything half as good as the 2011 Preliminary Final, it will be an entertaining encounter. Fingers crossed the Hawks don’t produce a snore fest like last Friday night.
Hawthorn has lost some serious momentum over the last fortnight. The Richmond and St Kilda performances certainly didn’t speak volumes for a club that has been the premiership favourite for the majority of the season. The slump is proven by a sharp drop in contested possessions, gathering tallies of 110 and 114 over the last two weeks, a long way off its season average of 143.5 a game. The positive is that Franklin, Hodge and Birchall all return to the line up.
Collingwood has all of a sudden become a premiership contender yet again after an irresistible display against the highly fancied Swans. When Pendlebury and Swan have 30+ disposals, Collingwood basically always get the points and that was no exception on Saturday night. They were well supported by Beams and Ball who gathered 32 and 31 disposals respectively. Beams’ comeback from injury in particular has been remarkable, averaging an amazing 31 touches in his 5 games without missing a beat.
It’s a really tight contest on paper. Collingwood are a different team from the round 3 encounter, especially with the Beams, Ball and Keefe inclusions. Hawthorn has lost intensity and may have to play underdone stars to get some important minutes into them. Collingwood are every chance here. The +13.5 Collingwood line looks decent value pending final teams.
COLLINGWOOD TO WIN BY 2 POINTS
RICHMOND ($1.32) vs CARLTON ($3.30)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 17/08, 13:45
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2013, R1, CARLTON 14.17 (101) lost to RICHMOND 14.22 (106) AT THE MCG
Line: Richmond -21.5, Carlton +21.5
The Sydney loss to Collingwood has opened up the possibility of a Richmond top 4 berth. It needs to win the remaining fixtures against Carlton, GWS and Essendon, as well as hope that the Swans go down to Geelong and Hawthorn. It is a genuinely realistic situation. It keeps alive the recent trend of a non finalist rising from the depths to secure the double chance.
Skipper Trent Cotchin is beginning to hit his straps after a flat 2 month period from round 6 to 13. He surpassed the 30 disposal mark for the fourth consecutive week and is having a far more significant impact on the result. Daniel Jackson continued his career best form with another 30 possessions against Brisbane. There is reason to believe that he is right in the running for the best and fairest.
Chris Judd described Carlton perfectly on Wednesday afternoon, “mediocre”. What a disastrous season it has been for the Blues. The appointment of Mick Malthouse was filled with such expectations, but the fact of the matter is that the Blues have gone backwards under his management. It appears that even Mick conceded defeat on Saturday, with several eyebrow raising, experimental player positioning. Matthew Kreuzer still isn’t ready, while we won’t be seeing Chris Judd, Matthew Watson and Andrew Carrazzo for the rest of the season.
The Blues are spent. Key personnel have been put in cotton wool and 2014 is now the priority. The Richmond -21.5 line deserves serious consideration, despite Carlton’s good record.
RICHMOND TO WIN BY 35 POINTS
PORT ADELAIDE ($1.21) vs GOLD COAST ($4.40)
AT AAMI STADIUM, SATURDAY 17/08, 14:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2013, R4, GOLD COAST 9.12 (66) lost to PORT 16.8 (104) AT MS
Line: Port -28.5, Gold Coast +28.5
Carlton losing has all but secured a top 8 spot for Port Adelaide. The effort against Geelong was ordinary early, but a 6 to 1 goal final term gave the scoreboard respectability and the players continued confidence. Angus Monfries was outstanding with 7 goals and is benefitting from the move back to his home state. He is sure to create defensive headaches when the Elimination Final rolls around. Tom Jonas will return to the line up after serving his 3 match suspension.
Guy McKenna would have been happy to take the points against Melbourne, but the effort would have been seen as a disappointment. The Suns have improved significantly in the contested ball, but were smashed 117-142 on the weekend. Gary Ablett copped an extremely tight tag by Jordie McKenzie and Colin Garland, which caught the attention of the umpires department. Expect him to get some behind the ball frees this weekend. Nathan Bock, Alex Sexton and Campbell Brown will not be seen again in 2013.
A win to Port Adelaide here and it totally guarantees a September berth.
PORT ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 35 POINTS
ESSENDON ($2.80) vs NORTH MELBOURNE ($1.44)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 17/08, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2012, R20, ESSENDON 11.10 (76) lost to NORTH 15.10 (100) AT ES
Line: Essendon +17.5, North -17.5
You couldn’t blame James Hird and his players if this game wasn’t at the forefront of their minds. The charges have now been released and Monday the 26th of August is sure to be attaining a large chunk of everyone’s time. The one thing that Hird has said before is that coaching is keeping him sane. It is helping pass time and keeping the mind occupied, which would suggest that there is no real reason to believe that all available effort is being put into this game. Unfortunately, the players are now appearing to look drained by the situation on the field. Potentially the greatest challenge for Jams Hird this week is getting his troops in the right frame of mind, which could be made easier by the vindication of not having to face any charges. If the team produces anything near the output of the two previous weeks, expect another ugly result. Patrick Ryder and Dustin Fletcher will both miss due to suspension.
It was classic 2013 North Melbourne against Adelaide. While it didn’t give up an unassailable lead, it certainly didn’t back up the impressive performance against Geelong. What direction does Brad Scott take for the remaining games of 2013? It is still in contention for the potentially live 9th position, but you’d like to see the likes of Jordan Gysberts, Daniel Currie, Ayden Kennedy, Will Sierakowski and Majak Daw given greater opportunities.
I’m finding this very difficult to predict. Who knows what either team will produce? Hold your cash for another day here.
NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 8 POINTS
WEST COAST ($2.55) vs GEELONG ($1.50)
AT PATERSONS STADIUM, SATURDAY 17/08, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2012, R20, WEST COAST 16.6 (102) defeated GEELONG 15.7 (97) AT PS
Line: West Coast +12.5, Geelong -12.5
The West Coast Eagles looked down and out after a loss to the lowly Western Bulldogs in Round 18. But consecutive wins have given the Eagles a new lease of life with the 9th ladder position potentially still live if Essendon to do stripped of points. It does have a tough run home with games against Geelong, Collingwood and Adelaide, but holds the cards with Carlton horribly out of form. The recent inclusions of Wellingham, Selwood and LeCras have given the required depth and output to have John Worsfold quietly optimistic that his side could do some damage should it be lucky enough to be gifted a finals inclusion. Unfortunately LeCras will miss this week with broken ribs, but Luke Shuey returns.
Geelong made an early statement against Port Adelaide, but again found itself taking the foot off the pedal and letting an opponent pile on consecutive goals. It appears that once the Cats drop that gear or two, the players find it very difficult to hit earlier heights. Tom Hawkins has been the subject of discussion due to his ongoing back problems. Despite kicking 45 goals, being in the top 5 for contested marks and taking the best defender each week, some very spoilt Geelong supporters found it necessary to give the reigning best & fairest winner bronx cheers. He will be spared the 7 hour return flight to Perth.
Geelong has lost its last 3 games at Patersons Stadium. West Coast deserves consideration.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 3 POINTS
BRISBANE ($1.02) vs GWS ($13.00)
AT THE GABBA, SATURDAY 17/08, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2012, R8, BRISBANE 19.18 (132) defeated GWS 5.10 (40) AT THE GABBA
Line: Brisbane -59.5, GWS +59.5
The sacking of Michael Voss has been the real shock of the week. Carefully timed to coincide and be lost in the Essendon drug saga, no one expected the club legend to boned at this stage of the season. After a 5-3 record over the last 8 rounds, the general consensus was that a new contract was just around the corner. Unfortunately, a poor start to the season and an unforgivable 2009 trade period has never been forgotten. That doesn’t necessarily justify why he was sacked now and not earlier, unless of course there is a new coach already waiting in the wings. Paul Roos has instantly been installed as favourite for the job and the former club champion certainly ticks a lot of boxes. Mark Harvey will take control as care taker.
Brent Moloney and Justin Clarke will join Jonathan Brown on the sidelines of the rest of the year.
GWS have played and won its Grand Final against Melbourne. The Giants will now spend the rest of the season having a look at players with question marks. The revolving door has barely stopped all season, but with a large cut to complete at the end of the season, that door could get a whole look busier.
The Lions will win in a gallop despite the obvious distractions.
BRISBANE TO WIN BY 65 POINTS
MELBOURNE ($17.00) vs FREMANTLE ($1.01)
AT THE MCG, SUNDAY 18/08, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2013, R9, FREMANTLE 19.16 (130) defeated MELBOURNE 6.4 (40) AT PS
Line: Melbourne +66.5, Fremantle -66.5
This is sure to be an absolute beauty! Pardon my sarcasm as I thought it was worth trying a new method to get excited by this match. It really does look awful on paper.
It was a significant improvement for Melbourne against Gold Coast, but let’s be honest, it couldn’t get any worse after the GWS and North Melbourne capitulations. Positively, the Demon’s contested numbers were much higher than its terrible 125.3 season average, gathering a respectable 142 on Saturday night. It was a key element that kept them it the contest for a majority of the match. Chris Dawes will return to the line up, but North Adelaide recruit Mitch Clisby will miss the rest of the season due to a mysterious MRP suspension.
The Dockers continue to eye off a top 2 position. It was an unforgiving performance against GWS, piling on 16 goals to 1 in the 2nd half. The major positive of the day for Ross Lyon was no new injuries and Matthew Pavlich getting through unscathed after a 3 match suspension. Stephen Hill was a late withdrawal but should be available for the trip to Melbourne, although Garrick Ibbotson hasn’t been named.
Expect another percentage boost for Freo as it draws closer to Sydney.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 73 POINTS
SYDNEY ($1.02) vs ST KILDA ($14.00)
AT THE SCG, SUNDAY 18/08, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2013, R5, ST KILDA 9.9 (63) lost to SYDNEY 11.13 (79) AT WESTPAC STADIUM, NZ
Line: Sydney -58.5, St Kilda +58.5
Unfortunately it is another game that won’t fill the neutral supporter with too much excitement.
It was probably only the second time this season that the Sydney strengths were significantly restricted by an opponent. The Swans were kept to only 134 contested possessions (averaging 158.1 in 2013), 318 disposals (369.9 average), 38 inside 50s (54.9 average) and 10 goals (15.3 average). The only positive of the game was the form of Kurt Tippett who kicked 6 of the Swan’s 10 goals. Since round 13, Tippett is ranked second for goals (27) and second for contested marks in the competition. There is a theory that the midfield has an unhealthy obsession with Tippett as a forward target, but he is hard to ignore in his current form. Gary Rohan will make his long awaited return.
St Kilda was lucky that Hawthorn weren’t on the ball Friday night as the game standard was at an extreme low. Of the 796 disposals between the two clubs, only 229 of them were contested, while there was only a total of 101 tackles laid for the entire night. Talk about bruise free football. Good luck to the Saints replicating those numbers against Sydney. James Gwilt and Lenny Hayes are another two key exclusions from the side.
Sydney has far more to play for and you can only expect an admirable rebound.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 70 POINTS
WESTERN BULLDOGS ($2.12) vs ADELAIDE ($1.72)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 18/08, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2013, R4, ADELAIDE 12.8 (80) defeated DOGS 4.4 (28) AT AAMI
Line: Dogs +5.5, Adelaide -5.5
This is one of the more interesting games of the round. The Western Bulldogs are certainly on the rise. The win against Carlton was its best for the season, but the scoreboard didn’t quite indicate the real dominance of the Dogs. The stats tell a more accurate story, with the Dogs recording 97 more disposals, 6 more centre clearances, 10 more tackles and 21 more inside 50s. It is difficult to tell whether those statistics are attributed to the Western Bulldog’s stark improvement, Carlton’s dramatic drop or a combination of both. Captain Matthew Boyd returns to lead the side.
Adelaide is another team in contention for that 9th position. Brenton Sanderson’s men have entered a patch of consistency over recent weeks with solid performances against good opposition. Last month there were calls for Rory Sloane to be thrown on the trade table in the South Australian media. Surely his latest run of form is enough to silence such ridiculous suggestions. This guy is a star and the Crows were never going to use him as bait. Ricky Henderson is an underrated loss for the Crows.
The Dogs form has been very impressive, but the Crows mini revival isn’t quite getting the attention it should. If it can match the Dogs at the stoppages, I can’t see the Crows losing.
ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 19 POINTS
