Welcome to The Profits round 21 analysis with Drew and Euan. We love to hear your feedback and thoughts so tweet @TheProfitsComAu and we will comment/retweet!
You can find Full teams from the AFL website here – www.afl.com.au
You can find an up to date Injury List here – http://www.injuryupdate.com.au/afl-injury-list.php
St Kilda Saints ($3.35) vs Geelong Cats ($1.33) – Etihad Stadium, Friday August 17, 7.50pm
Recent clashes: Geelong 15.10 (100) d St Kilda 11.6 (72), round 13, 2011 at the MCG
Game preview: The Saints have lost Reiwoldt at a bad time considering they had a faint hope of making the finals and they really needed players like Nick available for games like this. Geelong will make the finals and a win in this game will ensure that happens. Rumour has it that the Saints might try younger players in preparation for next season.
Cats by 22
Line: Cats -18.5
Essendon Bombers ($2.15) vs Carlton Blues ($1.72) – MCG, Saturday August 15, 1.45pm
Recent clashes: Carlton 11.13 (79) defeated by Essendon 15.19 (109) round 4, 2012 at the MCG
Game preview: The importance of this game is difficult to assess because Carlton’s chances of playing in the finals basically hinges on beating a fast dying Essendon team. Judd is back for the Blues in time for this and the Bombers have too many of their key players injured. Both teams have a lot to play for so the going will be tough.
Blues by 18
Line: Blues – 5.5
Greater Western Sydney Giants ($4.60) vs Melbourne Demons ($1.20) – Manuka Oval, Saturday August 18, 2.10pm
Recent clashes: Melbourne 20.15 (135) d Greater Western Sydney 9.3 (57), round 13, 2012 at the MCG
Game preview: There’s no doubt the Giants have a chance of winning the game considering the poor form of Melbourne but the Demons have a lot more experience than the new AFL team and that will be telling factor. Take away talks of tanking and there’s little other interest in the game.
Demons by 38
Line: Demons -33.5
Fremantle Dockers ($1.38) vs Richmond Tigers ($3.05) – Patersons Stadium, Saturday August 18, 2.40pm
Recent clashes: Richmond 9.12 (66) lost to Fremantle 12.6 (78), round 11, 2012 at the MCG
Game preview: Simple basic fact here: Fremantle must win. No if’s or but’s they have to beat the Tigers in Perth to have any chance whatsoever of making the finals. With the possibility of an Essendon loss the opportunity is too great for the Dockers not to take. Unfortunately for Fremantle Richmond is playing well so if they win it will be by a narrow margin.
Dockers by 22
Line: Dockers -15.5
North Melbourne Kangaroos ($3.40) vs Collingwood Magpies ($1.32) – Etihad Stadium, Saturday August 18, 7.40pm
Recent clashes: Collingwood 22.15 (147) d North Melbourne 3.12 (30), round 16, 2011, at the MCG
Game preview: North Melbourne has taken all before them and put together a string of wins that leaves them in a great position to play finals football this year. Some significant injuries to a couple of key players from last week’s game will not help them to beat the Magpies who must maintain their winning form to settle in the top 4. More talent in more positions should see Collingwood maintain its winning habit against North.
Magpies by 28
Line: Magpies -21.5
Brisbane Lions ($4.60) vs Adelaide Crows ($1.20) – The Gabba, Saturday August 18, 7.40pm
Recent clashes: Adelaide 16.14 (110) d Brisbane Lions 16.9 (105), round 20, 2011, at the Gabba
Game preview: The Crows are pushing for minor premiers so this game against Brisbane still holds some importance for them and the reward of a home final. Brisbane has played a few good games but against quality opposition they have fallen a bit short. The game has some great match ups with on ball players like Black, Rich, Dangerfield and Thompson. Even though the game is at the Gabba it’s hard to go past the Crows.
Crows by 36
Line: Crows -29.5
Port Adelaide Power ($6.00) vs West Coast Eagles ($1.13) – AAMI Stadium, Sunday August 19, 12.40pm
Recent clashes: West Coast 15.20 (110) defeated Port Adelaide 13.10 (88), round 13, 2011 at Patersons Stadium
Game preview: Not a bad effort by the Power against a rampant Hawthorn last week and again this week they face a team which has the ability to kick a lot of goals when they are on song. West Coast is maintaining its endeavour to finish top 4 although that does look a bit difficult at the moment with a significantly lower percentage than Hawthorn. Port just needs to keep playing the young kids and getting experience. Oh, and impress the new coach, whoever that might be.
Eagles by 52
Line: Eagles -37.5
Western Bulldogs ($10.00) vs Sydney Swans ($1.05) – Etihad Stadium, Sunday August 19, 3.15pm
Recent clashes: Sydney Swans 20.12 (132) d Western Bulldogs 5.10 (40), round 10, 2012 at the SCG
Game preview: The Bullies really look a lot more like puppies, sick puppies at that. Meeting an unhappy Sydney after their close loss to Collingwood last week will not be a positive experience and there is the likelihood of an embarrassing margin if the Bulldogs don’t put in a 4 quarter effort. All that preview coaching aside – they have no hope of beating Sydney who just needs to win to hold top position on the ladder.
Swans by 66
Line: Swans -47.5
Hawthorn Hawks ($1.01) vs Gold Coast Suns ($21.00) – MCG, Sunday August 19, 4.40pm
Recent clashes: Hawthorn 16.10 (106) d Gold Coast 14.13 (97), round 24, 2011 at Metricon Stadium
Game preview: Speaking of embarrassing margins, just what the Hawks needed was another percentage boosting game against one of the new teams – NOT! The Suns won last week but that first win on their home ground will be a distant memory after the siren goes to end this game. A Rioli injury to Hawthorn is countered by a Buddy return for them and he could kick a bag to wrest the Coleman lead from Pavlich. Gold Coast needs to work hard for 4 quarters to keep the margin under 100 points.
Hawks by 88
Line: Suns +105.5
Betting
BEST BET: Geelong 1-39 at $2.08
Collingwood -9.5 at $1.50
Freemantle -4.5 at $1.52
Sydney 40+ at $1.60
Carlton -5.5 at $1.92
Please note
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice.
All lines quoted are taken from Centrebet
